Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Another 5 Waves - Market Analysis for May 29th, 2025

With the spike overnight, the market has taken out the high struck yesterday, which made it clear that this 5-wave structure had not yet completed.  So, my view is that the overnight high completed the 5-wave rally off the wave 4 low on May 23rd, and that we have potentially and finally begun that pullback I have wanted to see.Yet, while we clearly are very extended to the upside and we have a very full count, what we do not have is confirmation that the high for this rally is likely in place.  We will need to break down below the wave 4 low (5767SPX) to confirm that the bigger pullback I still expect is in progress.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Still Expecting Lower Prices In Metals

Nothing has changed in the bigger picture in my metals analysis.  But, the paths to the lower levels is still an open question.Starting with gold, I can now count 5 waves down in a leading diagonal to begin the c-wave lower. But, we really would need to bounce from the 3285 region in the futures (Aug contract) in order to retain this path.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Market Levitates To Top of Resistance

With today’s high, we saw a spike and reversal at the top of our resistance box on the ES chart.  And, I think this is a good marker for us.I would say that as long as we remain below today’s high, I will view it as the top of the [c] wave of wave ii. But, I cannot say that the decline off that high is a clear 5-wave decline.  So, we will need more information about the decline structure should we head lower before we can view this count as a high probability.Alternatively, should the market be able to exceed today’s high, then it begins to suggest that the wave 5 has not likely completed.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Moves Up Into Resistance

We saw the market continue to push higher today, moving into the key retrace resistance zone for the potential initiation move down that began last week. As long as price holds beneath this zone, my primary expectation remains for a downside resolution in the coming days. A sustained move through resistance, however, would open the door to one more push to a higher high before any significant top is in place.Zooming in on the ES chart, I continue to favor counting five waves down into last week's low. The bounce off that low has thus far only developed as a three-wave structure, and we remain below the 5937–5967 resistance zone.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Market Testing Key Resistance

We opened lower today, only to see a retrace higher into the afternoon session. At this point, the move off Monday’s high into this morning’s low still counts best as a three-wave decline, but the market remains capped beneath a key resistance level. As such, we cannot yet rule out the potential for this structure to develop into a full five-wave decline, opening the door to a more significant top having been struck.As I’ve been noting in prior updates, the resolution of this initial structure off the high is critical.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Metals Rally Before Next Bout Of Weakness

Due to my travels, I do not have a lot of time for this update.  So, I am going to keep it simple.GLD seems to be rallying I the [c] wave of an expanded b-wave flat.  Within the [c] wave, we seem to still need a 4-5 to complete it.   But, should we see a 5-wave decline begin from this point forth, then we can view that as wave 1 of the c-wave down, and the wave 2 bounce could be a good shorting opportunity.Silver is still trying to get to its target blue box to complete 5 waves up.  Thereafter, I would still expect a corrective wave [2] pullback, which would be a good buying opportunity.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Moves Lower and Tests Key Support

Today, the market finally posted a local top and a meaningful pullback, with a decline of about 1.5% heading into the close. This move broke below the initial support level and is now approaching the key lower support zone that I’ve highlighted in recent days.On the ES chart, today’s decline reached the upper end of this lower support near 5847. A further move down through the 5779–5778 level would be the first real signal that a larger degree top may be in place. Until that lower level is breached, we can’t confirm a broader trend reversal.While I remain cautious, a break of that support is needed to shift the outlook more bearishly.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Market Holding Support as Downside Structure Remains Corrective

The market spent most of today’s session moving sideways within a very tight range, with a modest dip lower into the final hours. Despite that late-day weakness, the price is still holding above both yesterday’s low and the broader support levels below.Importantly, the move down off the recent highs continues to present as a three-wave structure. As such, we still lack confirmation of even a local top. Until we either break key support zones or see a clear five-wave move to the downside, the potential remains for the market to push higher before any meaningful top is struck.As highlighted on the ES chart, micro support comes in at the 5930–5915 zone, representing the 61.8%–76.
by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago

Market Still Grinding Higher

Today, the market opened lower but quickly pushed to new highs, offering no clear sign of a top just yet. As such, we continue to monitor the Fibonacci resistance levels above and key support levels below for any indication of a reversal. Patience remains crucial as we wait for the market to reveal whether it's ready to form at least a local top or continue its upward grind.Overnight, the market briefly broke through the upper support level but held the key support zone between 5854 and 5776, as shown on the ES chart. As long as we stay above this zone, there's still potential for further upside.
by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago

Market Holds Support and Pushes to New Highs

Overnight, the market broke the upper support level that I had discussed yesterday, but managed to hold the smaller degree support level just below and continued to push higher today. So from an analysis perspective, not too much has changed today, as the count still remains relatively full and quite extended from a Fibonacci perspective. While I do still remain cautious in this region, until we see an actual break of support and/or a clear five-wave move to the downside, we simply do not have any confirmation that even a local top has been struck just yet.Zooming into the ES chart, support has now been moved down to the 5842–5776 zone.
by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago
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