Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Are Metals Starting To Crack?

At this point in time, I am starting to see a bit more evidence that we may have a b-wave top in place in both GDX and GLD at this time.  While not the most clear and convincing evidence just yet, we may be starting the wave 1 down in their respective c-waves. While the respective 2nd waves in that wave 1 is quite shallow in both, it does leave some questions about that micro count.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Trying to Make a Decision

The price action over the past several days has been quite sloppy, and as of the time of this writing, it has yet to make a decision as to whether we are going to head directly lower toward our ultimate Ending Diagonal target at the 5902 level, or if we are going to see yet another higher high before finding a significant top. These paths have been outlined over the past several days and have, for the most part, remained unchanged. Until we see a break of support below or resistance overhead, we will not have confirmation as to which path the market will ultimately take in the near term.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Adding IWM Thoughts Today

No, I still have nothing to add to the SPX analysis.  But, based upon the fact that we have no clear 5-wave decline from the high thus far, the door is still open for tomorrow’s catalyst of the Fed rate decision to ignite one more rally before this wave tops. But, all parameters outlined in prior updates still very much apply.However, in the event that we have indeed topped, then I would be looking more towards the blue count, as we do not have a clear 5-wave decline off the high, as it is looks relatively clear as a 3-wave corrective decline.So, today, I am including the similar paths I see in IWM.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

See Last Week - Market Analysis for Jun 16th, 2025

I really feel so bad that I have nothing meaningful to add to the analysis over the last week or two.   The market has done nothing but grind inch by inch higher towards the prior all-time highs.  And, as it stands right now, I do not have a 5-wave decline in place to suggest that the b-wave has topped, nor do I have any pattern in place that is presenting a projection below the 5920SPX support at this time.I know patience is not terribly easy, but I am personally also waiting patiently with a lot of money raised and sitting on the sidelines.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Honey Badger Rally - Market Analysis for Jun 12th, 2025

With the market not exhibiting the typical hallmarks of the conclusion of an ending diagonal (a spike up followed by a sharp reversal), it is simply continuing to grind higher towards the prior all-time high, despite a month of negative divergences evident on the 60-minute chart.  Yet, once this rally concludes, I am expecting a sharp reversal to begin the next larger pullback.  That begins with the break-down of the 5920SPX level, with follow-through below 5767SPX.So, there really is not much more for me to add to the analysis at this time.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Divergence Forming, But Still Holding Over Support... for Now

Since the low struck on May 23rd, the market has been grinding its way higher in a very choppy and overlapping fashion. This type of price action is characteristic of an Ending Diagonal (ED), and it suggests that we may be completing wave (c) of a structure that began back in April.Adding to this setup, we’re starting to see negative divergence forming on the 60-minute MACD, a common feature when an ED pattern is nearing completion. That said, we’re still trading above key support, so while all the ingredients for a reversal are in place, we do not yet have even initial confirmation that a top is in.
by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago

Uneventful day, path for higher remains

Futures traded mostly sideways following the Sunday open and the market climbed mildly higher during the regular trading session today. Price briefly exceeded Friday's high this afternoon, but did sustained a breakout. Therefore, a wider flat off Friday's high as wave (B) of 5 is still possible, that can revisit the retrace support between 5988 - 5965 before turning back up again. Otherwise, a sustained breakout above Friday's high is needed to confirm that wave (C) of 5 is already underway, after which 6050 becomes the minimum target expected to be reached before attempting a top.
by Garrett Patten - 2 weeks ago

Tick Tock - Market Analysis for Jun 5th, 2025

Yea, I know it sounds like a broken record already, but after being in the same general region now for basically the last month, it is still only a matter of time before the market provides us with the standard pullback we will often see.  Can we extend a bit higher first?  Of course.  So, for now, our micro support is the 5920SPX region.  And, below that is the all important 5767SPX which is highlighted on the 60-minute chart quite prominently.  Below that level provides the confirmation of the pullback and the structure of that pullback will likely tell us what to do over the rest of this year and beyond.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Silver Stretching Its Legs

As I just posted in the trading room as an alert, silver is finally trying to stretch its legs.  But, I still think the evidence suggests this is a final move in this rally rather than the start of a new one.  As I noted in the live video yesterday morning to the full-time membership, the last consolidation just below us really counts best as a triangle.  And, we know that a triangle most commonly takes shape in either a 4th wave or a b-wave.  That means that the move out of a triangle is most often the final move in a trending move whether it is a 5th wave or a c-wave.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Market Sees A Day Of Consolidation

Today, the market consolidated in a tight range near yesterday’s highs. This type of price action often precedes further upside, but confirmation requires a decisive break above the 6007 level. Until that happens, the market remains at an inflection point. On a broader scale, not much has changed since the weekend update. The primary view is that we are in a topping region, likely either in a topping region for the blue wave a or red wave b.  The potential for that larger wave b top to develop, as outlined in the red count, will depend on the structure of the next meaningful pullback.
by Mike Golembesky - 3 weeks ago
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