Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Market Holds Support – Higher Levels Still in Play

The market opened lower today but quickly found support near the 100% extension of the initial move down off the highs and pushed higher into the close. This price action continues to suggest that the decline off the high is corrective in nature, keeping the door open to higher levels as we still remain above even the upper support zones. While I can’t completely rule out another dip to further flesh out a fourth wave down from the highs, as long as support holds, the pattern continues to look better with another push higher.On the ES, I’m watching the 6453–6420 zone as upper support for micro wave iv.
by Mike Golembesky - 5 days ago

Gold Still In Corrective Mode

With gold following through to the downside in what seems like the (d) wave of a b-wave triangle (in purple), we are still well within the parameters of an ongoing wave [4].  In the micro structure, it does seem as though a higher of a bounce would be likely to complete the b-wave of that [d] wave, the main point is that as long as we remain below last week’s high, I am seeking a conclusion to this b-wave triangle as outlined on the 60-minute GC count.   Once that does complete, I will be looking for an initial 5-wave decline to make it likely that the c-wave down in wave (4) has begun.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Market Continues to Grind Higher

The market opened higher today, pulled back early in the session, and then pushed higher into the close. We have yet to break even the upper-most support levels, and both ES and SPX still present what does look like incomplete patterns to the upside on the micro-degree. While a short-term pullback is certainly possible in the days ahead, as long as we remain above key support, we do not yet have a signal that any significant top has been struck. In fact, the structure would look more complete with at least another fourth and fifth wave to finish off the move to the upside.On the ES, I’m currently watching the 6453 level as upper support.
by Mike Golembesky - 5 days ago

Hitting Resistance - Market Analysis for Aug 12th, 2025

With the continuation move higher today, the market is now pushing on the all-time high struck in the futures market at the end of August.  Moreover, since the manner in which we have rallied off the 6212SPX low is rather corrective and overlapping, there is even potential we are striking an [a][b][c] conclusion to a rally, as I have outlined in the alternative blue count.   So, where this leaves us is maintaining a view higher towards the next target/resistance box on the 5-minute chart.  But, that structure, since it is overlapping, is most likely taking shape as a diagonal.   Therefore, the target for wave (3) is in the 1.236 extension of waves (1)(2), which is in the 6475SPX region.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Specific Micro-Path Higher Has Not Materialized

While the holding of support and rallying last week has certainly opened the door to the next higher targets (despite how long-in-the-tooth this rally already is), as I mentioned in the weekend update, the specific path higher is not at all clear.   You see, while the rally off last week’s test of support began with a potential impulsive rally, the movement since has been anything but.  This leaves us wanting for a structure within a potential 5th wave higher, as outlined on the 5-minute SPX chart.One of the paths I am considering is presented on the attached 15-minute chart.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

B Wave Held Where It Needed To

Today, we saw the market continue its move higher into b-wave territory, only to turn down right at key resistance and push lower into the afternoon session. As it stands, we now have what appears to be a fairly clean three-wave move up off last week’s low, giving us an early indication that a top may have been struck in this b-wave.That said, we still need further confirmation. Specifically, we want to see a break of the key support levels I outlined yesterday to strengthen the case that wave b has indeed completed.From here, the next steps for confirmation are a break of the 6283 level, followed by a move below last week’s low at 6237.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

3rd Wave or B-wave? Both Have Same Outcome

With the GDX moving beyond my prior expectation, the question that is on everyone minds is what this means to the overall chart?   And, the basic answer is “not very much.”You see, either this rally is an expanded b-wave, or it is simply a continuation of the 3rd wave.  In both cases, we likely still see a sizeable decline before the 5th wave rally takes hold.  The main reason I am assuming that the 5th wave has not begun is because we have seen no consolidation that would be deep enough or large enough to be considered the wave 4.  Therefore, the most reasonable assumption is that this is either an expanded b-wave within wave 4, or wave 3 is simply extending.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Not Much Has Changed – Still Trading Within the b-Wave Territory

There’s not a whole lot to add in today’s update, as the market continues to chop within b-wave retracement territory, holding above micro support, but still trading below micro resistance.At this stage, the pattern at the smaller degree remains unclear, offering little in the way of reliable guidance from a structural standpoint. Until we see a more defined setup, we’re essentially stuck in a holding pattern.That said, as long as price remains below resistance, I’m still leaning toward a downside resolution on the smaller-degree timeframes. Once (or if) we get that move, we’ll need to carefully assess how price reacts as we approach the larger support levels outlined below.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Still In B Wave Territory

The market took a bit of a breather and didn't see too much movement after yesterday's retracement higher. So with that, there really is not too much change from yesterday's update. There are a few new micro price support levels that I am watching on the ES, but other than that, the analysis is for the most part unchanged from yesterday. As I noted yesterday, I’m placing greater emphasis on key retracement resistance levels to guide the near-term outlook. As long as we remain below those key retrace zones, my primary expectation is still for lower levels to unfold in the days and weeks ahead.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Quick Point On Gold

As of now, we have 3 waves off the low struck in gold at the end of July.  However, we do not have 5 waves down, unless it morphs into a leading diagonal, which still needs a lower low off yesterday's high.  But, if gold pushes to another high in this rally off the low from the end of July, that would make this rally 5 waves up, and I would have to strongly reconsider further immediate downside.That then brings me to a question as to why we would have 5 waves up here.  And, I do not have a good answer as I still have no confidence that we have a completed bigger 4th wave.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago
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