Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Relatively Full Now - Market Analysis for May 8th, 2025

As I said just an hour or so ago, we now have a relatively full pattern to the upside, along with some nice negative divergence on the 60-minute MACD.  Moreover, the daily MACD is now hitting the bottom of its resistance box.  Can the market still continue to extend?  Sure.   But, recognize that risk is now rising for a potential reversal when the count is sound and full.  What we are now seeking is a break-down now below yesterday's low to signal that a top is likely in place. So, below yesterday’s low and we are likely in the expected pullback, and we will then need to assess the nature of the pullback to determine which counts to apply.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Rally Topping? - Market Analysis for May 7th, 2025

While I was expecting the metals complex to see a b-wave rally in GDX and GLD, the gold rally has begun a bit earlier than I had expected, as I was looking for a bit lower first.  But, the market had other ideas.In both GDX and gold/GLD, it really seems as the more likely perspective is that this rally is a b-wave.   In fact, the rally in GDX and gold have retraced to the .764 region of the prior decline.  And, while I can make an argument for a 5-wave decline from the high in GDX, I really do not see a clear 5-waves down yet in gold.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Unreliable Structures - Market Analysis for May 7th, 2025

With the market spiking below the 5601ES support level, it has provided us with a minimum pattern for a leading diagonal for wave i down, which can be seen in red on the 15-minute ES chart. While I view leading diagonals as not reliable trading cues or structures, this one came up 3 points short of the 1.618 extension of red waves [i][ii], which is the minimum expectation I would have for a 5th wave in a leading diagonal.  This does make this even a bit less reliable.  So, for now, I am going to leave the wave iv on the table, allowing for one more higher high, especially since the 5601ES level did not see a sustained break.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Bulls Trying To Hang On

In the overnight action, the ES broke down below the initial signal line of 5649ES.  And, thus far, it has held to the 2nd support in the region of the waves iv/(iv).   If this support holds, then we can still see one more rally before this [c] wave tops out.  But, do take note that once we break down below the 1.00 extension during a pullback from the 1.618 extension it means that it will not recover in the great majority of instances.  So, probabilities are increasing that a top is in place for now, but we do need to break down below today’s low to make it likely.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Topping Action? - Market Analysis for May 5th, 2025

Whether the market has actually struck its top to this [c] wave rally, or has another push higher is not something I can state with certainty.  But, as long as the ES remains over the 1.00 extension at the 5649ES level, then I am leaving the door open that today’s pullback is wave iv of wave 5, with one more push higher yet to be seen to complete wave 5 of the [c] wave.So, that would mean that a break down below 5649ES would be an initial signal that a top has potentially been struck, with follow through below the iv/[iv] increasing that probability.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

No More Yellow - Market Analysis for May 1st, 2025

With the market taking out the recent highs and rallying in a 5th wave, I can state that the yellow count is done, as it represented a 3-wave structure. With us completing a 5th wave, we no longer have to worry about the yellow count.Yet, we have bigger degree worries right now. You see, we are now approaching the completion of the [c] wave, based upon my wave count.  We should be in the 5th wave of that [c] wave, and likely have a iv-v to complete within that wave 5.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Gold Still Pointing Lower

It has been relatively clear that gold has been within a consolidation of late.  And, that consolidation seems like a triangle.  The only question today was whether the e-wave of that [b] wave triangle would be able to rally one more time towards just below the c-wave or not.  Initially, I expected it to try one more time to push just a bit higher since the initial move down off the intra-day high looked like a 3-wave decline. But, if we begin to break down below the 3270 region in gold then I have to assume the [c] wave down is in progress.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Quick Update - Market Analysis for Apr 30th, 2025

I am posting another update due to this being an important intermediate region right now, which could lead to as much as a 400+ point move. For now, I am viewing the spike and reversal of the support region as the completion of a wave 4 in red.  That means that as long as we hold over today's low, I am looking for a wave 5 rally to continue over the coming days.  Of course, should we break down below today's low, I am going to have to much more strongly consider moving to the yellow count as my PRIMARY, which is what would open the door to the 400+ point decline to the yellow c-wave target box below on the 5-minute SPX chart.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Need To Watch This Carefully

While the yellow count 1-2 downside set up was invalidated yesterday with the rally over Monday’s high, it may still come back into play.The rally yesterday approached the 1.618 extension of waves 1-2 to the upside.  And, when the natural wave 3 seemingly came up short of the 1.618 extension (the standard target), oftentimes the b-wave (in this case it would be an x-wave) can come back to strike it before declining in the c-wave (in this case a y-wave) to complete wave 4.  This may be what we are seeing right now.So, again, ideally the 5474ES region should hold as support for this wave 4.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Yellow Less Likely Right Now

While the market certainly provided us that “bounce” that I called for in my update yesterday, it actually bounced a bit too much to make the yellow count a strong probability.  You see, when the market moves past a .618-.764 retracement of the prior move, then the probability of a continuation move in an impulsive manner becomes less likely, at least based upon my decades of experience.Yet, we still need to break out over yesterday’s high to invalidate that potential. So, it now provides us with several paths to follow.There is potential that the 5-wave decline we completed yesterday is the c-wave of a running wave 4 flat, as I am showing on the attached 15-minute chart.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago
Down Arrow

Free 15-Day Trial

• S&P 500 Wave Analysis
• Gold, Silver, Oil & US Dollar Reports
• Stocks, Options, Cryptocurrencies & more
• Live Coaching & Webinars
CREATE A NEW ACCOUNT
No Credit Card Required
Previous or current members login here.
1 Free Trial per Person
By signing up you agree to our terms and privacy policy. You will receive access to our Trading Room, plus account-related emails and our weekend e-newsletter containing news, updates & promotions from ElliottWaveTrader. You can withdraw your consent at anytime.

OUR MEMBERS SAY ...

I live Finance. 80hrs a week corp finance. I trade as a hobby and in my opinion this is the best site in the world for someone to learn about markets... i rue the day when it is no more or its core is changed. there is NO BETTER SITE IN THE WORLD to get the off-cuff input/feedback/knowledge across ALL MARKETS like this site... Thank you to the analysts here who grind out thousands of charts each week.
"GibsonDog" - Trading Room
My faith in God and my faith in Avi and his team. God lead me to this service over 10 years ago. For a decade I have heard Avi point his bat at this very moment in time calling this S&P level. Though the years I have witnessed him point his bat months, even years before metals hit their highs and lows with almost perfect big picture accuracy. Against every other analysts opinion. I have seen him bullied relentlessly on his public articles on SA and stick to his guns and proven so correct with no one ever apologizing or admitting he called it.
"sdmavrick" - Seeking Alpha
My AUM has grown exponentially because of you and I can't thank you enough. My biggest regret is not signing up sooner! You've done more good than you will ever know.
"AAMilne" - Trading Room
I’ve subscribed for 5 years now and I have to say I see that you’ve been right on this the whole time. Who would’ve thought gold and silver would’ve rallied with rates this high for this long and the markets continued higher as well. Always thought your charts were good but always thought in the back of my mind that rate cuts and other news actually led. So now that I’ve admitted defeat u are free to gloat. Well deserved
"Lil_G" - Seeking Alpha
I worked on trading desks at top investment banks for 10 years, then traded on my own for another 8. I've seen 100s of research from the best analysts in the business. Avi and EWT is the only one I'm willing to pay for right now.
"tzeyi" - Seeking Alpha
“I was 100% in equities and been killing it for 2 years, but I heeded your warning and took everything off the table. I've been cautiously trading your recommendations and now when everyone I know is getting wrecked, I'm still profiting. Thank you so much for what you do, my family and future are safe because of it.”
"DoctorBeat" - Trading Room
This service has not only made me money in trades but equally important it got me out of the market before the meltdown.
"BigDaddyTuna" - Trading Room
"Your service and insight is phenomenal, and has definitely changed my outlook on the market. I’ve been actively working on recruiting new members to your service. It’ll save their financial life."
"Bidking82" - Trading Room
"Today, I achieved my highest weekly profit ever ....I see this as a testament to the power of the guidance available here. I ignored all narratives and traded the charts with discipline. I set clear parameters for each trade, immediately placing OCO (One Cancels the Other) orders with both stops and limits. I made some adjustments as the charts evolved, but kept the orders in place, and allowed the process to unfold. Sincere thanks to all the analysts and members who help make this such an incredible community—especially Avi, Zac, Mike, Levi, and Garrett. I'm incredibly grateful!"
"Dre-" - Trading Room
CNBC had a stat this morning that over the last 20 years 86% of money managers/hedge funds have underperformed the market. They couldn't figure out why that’s the case given how 'smart' these people are. . . . I know my performance since joining the site has skyrocketed!
"HenryH" - Trading Room

  Matched “”
x