Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Consolidation Before Higher?

As I said over the weekend, we will have to see how the market reacts to the downside once the bounce we expected this week completed.  And, that now refers to the decline that was seen yesterday after the (a)(b)(c) bounce completed. Yet, that decline really counts best as a corrective one rather than a CLEAR 5-wave decline.  Of course, I can force a 5-wave count to it with a VERY extended 5th wave.  But, I think the more likely and reasonable view is that the decline was a corrective 3-wave decline.And, as I said in the weekend update, if the decline is not a CLEAR 5-wave decline, then I would have to objectively look higher again.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

The More Things Change, The More They Stay The Same

Not much changes in the bigger picture.  As Ecclesiastes noted, there is nothing new under the sun.   If you take the time to look back to the last time we struck a major top in the metals (2011), you will see the exact same analysts that were, at that time, claiming that we were only “getting started” with the metals rally, as they were falling over each other claiming higher targets than the next.  At the time, the only argument one would see amongst them was how far beyond the 2000 level gold would rally.Well, today, they are lining up in the same way.   Many are now calling for levels well exceeding 5000 in gold and 100 in silver.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Bearish below today's high

Futures drifted higher following yesterday's close, resulting in the cash chart gapping higher at the open and exceeding yesterday's high. Price continued initially higher following the open to reach the measured move fib target cited in yesterday's EOD update at 6760.50. From there price reversed sharply back down, continuing to cooperate with the expectations laid out for a b-wave bounce off of Friday's low. Therefore, as long as price is now holding below today's high, then the assumption is that a b-wave bounce off of Friday's low has completed, and price is starting a c-wave down from today's high. Based on that expectation, the afternoon low should have completed wave 1 of c, and this is now the wave 2 of c bounce.
by Garrett Patten - 1 week ago

Following expectations for a b-wave

After continuing briefly higher following yesterday's close, futures began to roll over during the overnight trading session, ultimately retracing the majority of yesterday's gap up from the Friday afternoon low. As discussed this morning, price followed the expectations that Avi laid out for a wider flat b-wave, filling out the wave B of b into the low made this morning and rallying strongly since in what should be wave C of b. Although price has already retested the prior high that futures made following yesterday's close, there is still room for wave C of b to reach a bit higher near-term with either the .764 retrace at 6747 or the measured move fib at 6760.50 as the ideal targets.
by Garrett Patten - 1 week ago

Bounce In Progress - Market Analysis for Oct 13th, 2025

After being so stretched to the downside in Friday’s decline, it was not hard to expect a bounce to develop early this week.  But, the question with then be how the market pulls back from this bounce?Well, thus far, the pullback has been corrective.  And as I noted in the weekend update, until the market provides to us an indication that it will continue lower, we are forced to continue looking higher.Another wrinkle in our charts is that the ES dropped a bit further than the SPX, which does cause a bit of complication.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Hovering For The Last Week

Over the last week the SPX has been hovering and generally holding the 6700SPX region.  Right now, that is an initial signal level for me.  Until we break that support, the upside still has potential up towards the next larger degree Fib level in the 6830 region.   However, should the market first break the 6700SPX support, then it finally can open the door to more of a pullback.  Of course, the 6550 level is going to be the tougher nut to crack.  But, should we see follow through below that, then we will have a date with the next all-important support in the 6212-6360SPX region.  As I noted in an alert this morning:“Please keep your eyes on the big picture.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Largest Single Day Decline Since Rally Began

Today gold has experienced the largest single day decline since this rally began.  The question of course is if this is the wave iv in blue or if we have finally begun a larger degree correction for wave (4)?As I am writing this update, the market is approaching the top of the support box for the alt iv.   That is the 3930 region.  We will have to watch this action very carefully in the coming days.  As long as all bounces are corrective, we can maintain a reasonable expectation for at least one more decline.  That means we can view this as an a-wave decline today, with the expectation of a b-wave corrective bounce.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Quick Note On Bigger Picture

For years, we have been expecting silver and GDX to provide a catch up move.  And, now they are there.  In fact, all charts are now pointing to only one 4th and 5th wave left before this cycle is likely completed.Today, silver seems to be breaking out in the 5th smaller degree wave which will likely complete wave (3) in its long term cycle.  Gold is past that, but is now trying to complete its wave (3) in its final 5th, and GDX seems aligned with silver.  So, I still very much think it is reasonable to expect a larger degree 4th wave still to come across the board.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Switching Gears A Little – But, Does Not Change Bigger Picture

The one thing I am doing right now is I am taking off the b-wave potential on this rally, and simply calling it an extension in the 3rd wave in both GLD/GC and GDX.  But, in the bigger picture, that really does not change much, as it still has me expecting a larger degree 4th wave, with a 5th wave thereafter yet to come.In GDX, our initial support now is in the 68 region, and we will need to break below that support to suggest that a larger degree 4th wave is in progress.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Back to no evidence of a top

The market rebounded today, easily exceeding the retrace resistance this morning that was cited as where a corrective (B)-wave bounce needed to hold. Therefore, price appears to want to attempt another high as at least further extension in wave C of v. Assuming a higher high is seen, 6809.50 and 6819.25 ES are now the next fib targets possible to reach above yesterday's high. Otherwise, to start treating price immediately bearish again, a break back below 6775 ES is needed as the first warning sign of weakness and eventually price needs to take out yesterday's low to reestablish a potential top.
by Garrett Patten - 2 weeks ago
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