Bayesian Probabilities Favoring Bulls

In the U.S. Indices (SPY), we continue to do very well in our Notes portfolios jumping in-and-out both long and short booking profits in stocks.  Another vibration window is coming up later this week, so you know what to expect.  A reminder that a vibration window is a moment in time that serves as resistance or support in price.

Updated Recap:  Bayesian members went full hedge in January 2022, rolled those back in Q2 2022, booked many swing trades in-and-out in Q2 as the expected move higher into the fall has been initiated off of the called June low.

And now it gets tricky because we need to do our best to answer if the August high was “the high” for the back half of 2022 before what is expected to be a more prolonged bear move lower into 2023/2024.  Odds continue to support at least one more multi-week bullish higher into the fall.   

Moving over to metals (GDX), we're still attempting to bottom, but odds have shifted ever so slightly in favor of the bulls and could create a BTD environment.  Ideally, another pullback that holds is up next.  Targets remain 27 and above that is 31-33.    

In oil (USO), Bayesian probabilities still have us leaning neutral to bullish now, with a vibration window due up early this week.   Let’s see how this plays out and if it triggers a trade signal.  Things are close to a BTD regime taking hold.  From before:   Upside targets remain near 80-82; and BP clusters closer to 60.   

In the dollar (UUP), Bayes called the softening (i.e. less negatively correlated) relationship with “stocks” within days of this multi-week run higher in stocks.  IF this path plays out, then as early as this week should see another down leg manifest into mid-November.