Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Still Looking For Another Rally

As Mike has been outlining, the smaller degree structure is a bit unclear. And, that is often typical of b-wave or corrective structures. In fact, I can probably outline 4/5 different ways to count the smaller degree structure outlined on the 5-minute SPX chart.Yet, all my analysis can be summed up by the following statement: As long as the market continues to hold the lower support box on the 5-minute chart, I am going to continue to look higher to test the resistance box overhead.In the meantime, as least so far, the rally is starting to take shape as a potential [c] wave rally. So, for now, I am still going to look higher.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Still No Clear Evidence Of A Bottom In Metals

While we are certainly in the region from which I can reasonably expect a bottom to be struck, I still have no clear indications that a bottom has indeed been struck. I am seeking a clear 5-wave rally off a low, and none has become evident just yet.Meanwhile, as I have noted in the alerts I posted in the trading room over the last day or so, GLD is still holding over its 208 region support, which has me on alert for a 5-wave rally to begin.

by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Have We Put In A B Wave Bottom?

After moving lower yesterday we saw the market move up sharply after the FMOC announcement and we are still sitting near the highs at the time of this writing. While this is certainly opening the door for a bottom of the wave (b) to be in place we still are not out of the woods just yet and will need to push through a few more levels of resistance to confirm that we are indeed pushing higher in a larger wave (c) of b.Drilling down to the five minute chart we can see that the SPX is currently testing the 76.4 retrace level of the move down off of the 5123 high.

by Mike Golembesky - 4 days ago

Wave b may not be done yet...

The market started off the session initially higher this morning, but failed to follow through much beyond the progress already made into Friday's high. Price has since rolled over into the close, so far leaving us shy of reaching the ideal fib target for wave (c) of b at 5189 as the .618 retrace and measured move fib where wave (a)=(c).Therefore, I think it reasonable to consider that the high made this morning finished just wave iii of (c), and the pullback since is wave iv of (c).

by Garrett Patten - 6 days ago

Retrace Higher Still Underway?

Today the market opened sharply lower only to see a fairly sharp reversal in the afternoon session. The case could be made that the reversal up off of the lows is a micro five wave move which is what we would need to see to suggest we are going to push higher in the wave (c) of the larger wave b per the purple count on the charts. As long as we can hold over micro support we still have the setup in place to push higher to finish off the larger wave b before turning down once again.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Ready To Start The Next Rally In Metals?

As of tonight, I would say that not only do we have enough waves in place to consider a bottom to having been struck in this recent pullback in metals, but we even have an argument for the start of the next rally in place. Yet, I have to admit it is not the clearest of 5 waves up, and it is really of a very small wave degree, so much so that I cannot say that I am prepared to view this as a high probability just yet.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

To (b) or not to (b)?

Today the market started off the session initially lower, following expectations that a local top was struck as wave (a) of b at the overnight high. As price approached the 5080 signal support discussed in the morning video, I noted that even under the assumption that wave (b) of b was filling out, we could see a bounce from that level as a smaller degree b-wave within wave (b). Price followed that suggestion and bounced during the afternoon session, retracing back up to the .764 retrace of wave a of (b). Therefore, if price is following the blue count and intends to still pull back further in wave (b) of b, then ideally it maintains below the afternoon high.

by Garrett Patten - 1 week ago

Bouncing in a B-wave

The market followed through higher today, following expectations for a larger b-wave bounce filling out off last week's low, and price currently finishing up what should be wave (a) of b. Based on that expectation, 5123 is now the next fib resistance above, otherwise a break below 5080 is needed as confirmation of a local top and the start to wave (b) of b. The alternative is that price is further along in the circle b-wave and attempting to complete it sooner and a more direct fashion. That potential would become more likely if this move stretches all the way up to the .500 retrace at 5145 or the .618 retrace at 5189. Any turn down sooner will be assumed corrective as wave (b) of b.

by Garrett Patten - 1 week ago

Nighttime Update - Market Analysis for Apr 18th, 2024

The market is now extending a bit further than I expected at the close. While we have no confirmation that a bottom has been struck, there is another 5-wave extension I have noted on the attached ES chart. But, I want to remind you that this is not unusual when an ending diagonal completes. While the initial decline was slow to develop, we are certainly making up for lost time of late. And, I still think this is just the start. I think we will likely see even bigger fireworks in May and maybe into June once we do see a corrective bounce before likely continuing lower in the coming weeks and months.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Looking For A Near Term Bottom

With the market break-down below 5091SPX, I have noted my preference for viewing the top as having been struck, which now makes this decline an a-wave. And, I have highlighted the expected support for where I believe the a-wave can bottom on the 5-minute SPX chart, the top of which we are hitting right now.Overall, I do not expect that we will break down below 4946SPX in this initial decline. Of course, if I am wrong, then we may see a much larger decline than I currently expect. But, for now, there are many indications that suggest that we should be bottoming in the support box outlined on the 5-minute SPX chart.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Free 15-Day Trial

• S&P 500 Wave Analysis
• Gold, Silver, Oil & US Dollar Reports
• Stocks, Options, Cryptocurrencies & more
• Live Coaching & Webinars

OUR MEMBERS SAY ...

I live Finance. 80hrs a week corp finance. I trade as a hobby and in my opinion this is the best site in the world for someone to learn about markets... i rue the day when it is no more or its core is changed. there is NO BETTER SITE IN THE WORLD to get the off-cuff input/feedback/knowledge across ALL MARKETS like this site... Thank you to the analysts here who grind out thousands of charts each week.
"GibsonDog" - Trading Room

My AUM has grown exponentially because of you and I can't thank you enough. My biggest regret is not signing up sooner! You've done more good than you will ever know.
"AAMilne" - Trading Room

I worked on trading desks at top investment banks for 10 years, then traded on my own for another 8. I've seen 100s of research from the best analysts in the business. Avi and EWT is the only one I'm willing to pay for right now.
"tzeyi" - Seeking Alpha

I see the best quants, strategists and technicians the street has and you and your group are amongst the absolute best. My trading desk is floored at turning levels you are able to provide.
"Slu" -

CNBC had a stat this morning that over the last 20 years 86% of money managers/hedge funds have underperformed the market. They couldn't figure out why that’s the case given how 'smart' these people are. . . . I know my performance since joining the site has skyrocketed!
"HenryH" - Trading Room

I've been managing money since 1981 and ... I've never seen anyone handle fibs like him [Avi].
"halburris" - Seeking Alpha

This is literally the greatest advisory service - bar none.
"MJK" - Trading Room

Avi, After 40 years of trading...I am convinced there is no better analysis than yours.
"jmt1951" - Seeking Alpha

I’m convinced, EW theory is THE best way to approach markets for investing/trading. Whether you’re scalping micro moves, day trading swing trading or long term investing, EW always has you covered. Most people have a lens or a way they view the market but how consistent over time is it? For myself I like fractals and have made life changing trades off them. But as my trading days add up [and] the value of EW becomes clearer, especially when coupled with fib #s, I have to give credit to you Avi for this!
"bullhammer" - Trading Room

"I'm approaching my one year anniversary in the group and I truly believe this is the best decision I have ever made about a research service. FWIW, I'm a financial advisor and I have been in the industry for over 20 years. I manage over 300MM in assets and have routinely been a council member at every firm I have ever been with. Even though I'm just scratching the surface in my Elliot Wave education, this service has really helped me position my clients in the right way."
"YogiZeke" - Trading Room