Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Special Quick Post Market Close Update

The market made a lower low into the close, which opens the door for a potential five-wave move to the downside per the yellow count. While we still need confirmation—specifically a corrective retrace higher followed by a break of the low, the setup now allows for the possibility of a substantial move lower in wave (iii) of the larger wave C.With that in mind, the structure of the next retracement higher will be very important to monitor in the days ahead.
by Mike Golembesky - 4 days ago

Market Follows Through on Downside Setup but Continues to Hold Larger-Degree Support

Today the market followed through on the downside setup we outlined yesterday. However, we are still holding the larger-degree retracement support zone. In addition, as of this writing, the decline from the 2/11 high still counts best as three waves. That keeps the white count alive, which would allow for another push to new all-time highs.If this move down develops into a full five-wave structure off the 2/11 high, it would open the door to a larger-degree top being in place per the yellow wave B.
by Mike Golembesky - 4 days ago

What The Heck Is Up (or not up) With Silver?

While both gold and GDX have seen very nice corrective bounces thus far, with GDX approaching the .764 retracement of its initial decline and gold approaching the .618 retracement of the same, silver has only mustered a move to the .382 retracement region.   The question on my and everyone else’s mind is how do we read this?  If I were looking at gold and GDX in a vacuum, I would be shorting the crap out of those two charts.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Market Moves Lower After Stalling at Key Resistance

Today the market opened higher and reached the upper end of the key retracement zone from the decline off the February 2nd high. However, that level was quickly rejected, and we saw a sharp move lower that can be counted as a five-wave impulsive decline.Since today's low of the day was struck earlier this morning, the price has bounced higher, but that move so far counts best as being corrective in nature. That suggests the market likely has more work to do to the downside before we can begin looking for even a local bottom.
by Mike Golembesky - 5 days ago

Looking For A Pullback

With the market completing what seems to be a reasonable 5-wave rally off last week’s low, I think it is now reasonable to expect a pullback. And, normally, we seek a retracement in the .500-.618 region of the prior rally.As you can see, I have added a support box between the .500-.764 retracement of what I have labeled as wave 1, which is basically the 6828-6883SPX region.  For now, micro support is in the 6945-50SPX region.   Once that breaks, it should provide us with an initial indication that wave 2 is in progress.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

What I Don’t See

Sometimes what you don’t see in the market helps you to decide about what the market is about to do.   Of late, I have seen initial indications that the market may have finally topped in the rally off the April 2025 low.  But, when we did not see follow through below 6720SPX, it told me to wait a bit longer for more signals.  With the strong rally we saw at the end of last week, I initially surmised that it was a corrective rally, since I did not see any clear indications that the yellow (c) wave rally pointing us north of 7200SPX was taking shape.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Quick Pre-Weekend Update

We are approaching the lower end of the Ending Diagonal reversal target zone at 6961–7028 and are now up more than 2.5% off the overnight low. As we move into this key target and resistance area, it would be reasonable to expect at least a local top to form.Although ES did break the 6767 level, that break occurred outside of regular market hours when volume was low, and the cash SPX did not break the corresponding low. While not ideal, this does still allow the white wave 2 bottoming scenario to remain valid.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Market Breaks Initial Support, Opening the Door for a Larger Top

Today the market continued to push lower, breaking down below the first key support/pivot level that had been holding the bullish case for new all-time highs. With that said, the structure of the decline from the 7026 high is very overlapping and lacks an impulsive wave structure, which is more characteristic of corrective price action.Importantly, there is still one key price level just below current levels that could hold and keep the bullish path to new highs intact.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Short and Sweet - Market Analysis for Feb 5th, 2026

There really is not much for me to add to my metals analysis at this time.  My view remains that we are mired in a b-wave within a larger a-b-c corrective structure off the recent highs.  And, I think it is reasonable to expect one more rally before this b-wave completes.Of course, should all 3 charts break below their recent lows, then I have to assume the c-wave is already in progress, especially since we have hit the minimum targets for this b-wave in both the GC and GDX charts, but we have fallen short in silver.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Finds Support After A Sharp Move Lower, but We Are Still Not Out of the Woods

Today we saw the market move sharply lower, breaking yesterday’s low, but it managed to find support and keep the bullish path in play for the time being. While today’s move up off the afternoon low is a good start for the bullish count, we still have a bit more work to do before we can confirm that a bottom is in place and that we are indeed ready to push to new highs. Furthermore, as I noted previously, because we are likely trading within an Ending Diagonal off the December lows, even if we do push higher, the path to those highs is likely going to involve some twists and turns, much like what we saw today.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago
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