Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Slowly Leaking Lower - Market Analysis for Aug 6th, 2026

With the market seemingly topping in wave iii of (iii) of wave i in the yellow count, we have spent yesterday and today slowly leaking lower to the support box below. I want to note now that we do not have to actually strike the support box before wave iv is complete. The main point is that as long as we pullback correctively and hold over that support box, then the next expectation is for a wave v of (iii) rally once this completes.I want to also note that if the market should choose the more bearish path, then we would see a 5-wave decline which would project to at least the bottom of the ES support box.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Market Consolidates Over Support

After moving sharply higher over the past several days, we saw the market pull back today. We are still sitting over key support, and as long as that support holds, the pressure will remain to the upside per the yellow count. Should that support zone break on five waves, then it would open the door to a top per the white count. For now, however, the market pressure remains up.After a strong two-day rally into the lower end of the wave iii of (iii) target zone, we saw the market pull back into the upper end of support today at the 7743-7662 zone.
by Mike Golembesky - 4 days ago

Getting More Interesting - Market Analysis for Aug 5th, 2026

With the move today, the metals market is certainly getting more interesting.GDX has now moved beyond its 1.00 extension off the lows, which MAY suggest this is a 3rd wave in a leading diagonal. Yes, I know I am not a fan of leading diagonals. But, if we do complete one here, I would strongly consider it as the first wave in the next major move higher. But, I will need to see a CLEAR corrective pullback thereafter before I am willing to add the remaining amount of cash I am holding.At this time, I would like to see a corrective pullback in wave (iv), followed by a higher high in wave (v), which should ideally target the 87 region.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Bulls Are Seemingly Back In Control

After the market moved through the 7654SPX level, it was a strong sign that the bulls have taken back control. And, despite all the misgivings I have had with the yellow count, it seems I am forced to adopt a VERY shallow 2nd wave retracement once again.Currently, the bulls have control as long as they hold over the micro pivot I have outlined on the 5-minute SPX chart – which is now the wave iv of (iii) support, which coincides with the wave iv of (iii) support box I have noted on the 15-minute ES chart.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Explaining The Analysis - Market Analysis for Aug 3rd, 2026

Some of you are questioning why the 7580SPX level was so important to my analysis, and why a break of that region – even by a point – was so key in my work.Well, first, one of the structures we were tracking was a i-ii downside set up. However, that set up fully invalidates when the market moves even one penny beyond the start of wave i. You see, that is one of the few rules that are set in stone in Elliott Wave analysis. A 2nd wave can never retrace more than the start of wave i, at which time, the structure invalidates.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Morning Update - Market Analysis for Aug 3rd, 2026

As we just broke the 7580SPX resistance region, we have no bearish set ups in place any more.  But, I still want to address how I am now approaching this region.First, the misgivings that I have with the yellow count do not go away.  But, needless to say, taking out 7580SPX has caused the probability for the bullish potential to increase.  Yet, I still have many questions about its potential due to the issues I have outlined in the past few weeks.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

I Have To Remain Objective

Despite all the issues I have outlined with the yellow count over these last several weeks, we have seen something today that is forcing me to be tracking it on the chart a bit more closely now.With the rally in the futures off the overnight low, I can now count a 5-wave structure but ONLY AS A LEADING DIAGONAL, which I do not view as highly trustworthy in and of itself. In other words, while there is some potential that this is a 5-wave rally, I think it is quite reasonable to also view this as a 3-wave rally.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Potential Break of Triangle

I am sending this update out due to the action we saw last night, wherein the futures seem to have invalidated the triangle count.  However, while the futures have now invalidated the triangle count, the SPX has not.  But, due to the futures invalidation, I have added the ending diagonal count to the 60-minute SPX chart, as that is starting to look a bit more likely with the futures invalidation.What this chart now shows is that 7480SPX is our resistance.  That is what I would view as the wave ii in this ending diagonal.  That now places this bounce in the overnight action as the b-wave in wave iii, with the wave iii target being the 1.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Sure Looks Like A Triangle

Unfortunately, there has been nothing to really move the needle in metals, as we have been going sideways now for the last five weeks. But, the one thing that I can add is that gold looks like an almost completed triangle.As you can see from the attached 60-minute gold chart, we seem to be working on the e-wave of that triangle, which can push higher one more time. So, the parameters seem to be rather clear. A break of 4023 (take note I am on the December contract now) would suggest we are in a 5th wave down.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Off To "E" Or Yet Another "ED"

After trading in very sloppy, overlapping corrective wave action over the past several weeks, we saw the market move lower this morning only to jump higher after the FOMC announcement and press conference. The question I now have is whether this sloppy corrective wave action is indeed a larger triangle still needing a push higher to fill out the final wave e of the triangle count, or if we are filling out yet another Ending Diagonal to the downside to finish off the larger wave (c) off of the highs.At this point, both counts are still viable, and the determining factor will be how high this moves in the days ahead before breaking lower once again.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago
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