Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Trying To Keep It Simple

With the move down from this week’s high not counting well as a standard Fibonacci Pinball structure, it leaves us with the potential that the initial move lower was a leading diagonal for wave 1 of the (c) wave.  And, assuming this is the correct count, that makes today’s bounce a wave 2.This is where I add my usual warning about leading diagonals not being strong trading cues, as they can just as easily be a corrective structure.  It is for this reason that I seek confirmation with a clear 5-wave decline for wave i of 3 to make this structure a much higher probability in following through to the downside.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Point Of No Return

With the metals market seemingly topping out today, we may have now dropped to the point of no return.   You see, due to today’s drop, this is either going to be the start of the 5th wave to lower lows, or, yes, if we break back out over today’s high, then we will be looking at the revenge of the purple count.  It seems that simple to me at this time.I also want to remind you that a 5th wave decline in an ending diagonal takes shape as a 3-wave structure, breaking down as an a-b-c decline.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Market Continues To Push Lower, But Structure Is Far From Clean

Today we saw the market continue to push lower after moving lower yesterday as well. Unfortunately, the structure of the move to the downside is far from clear, and if we have indeed topped in all of wave (b), the initial move down has likely taken the form of a leading diagonal. While this can certainly qualify as an initial five-wave move to the downside, this structure is not the most reliable of patterns.The move up off today's low is, however, taking the form of three waves, which provides us with a bit of support for the idea that we still have further downside action ahead of us before making any new highs.
by Mike Golembesky - 4 days ago

Summer Doldrums - Market Analysis for Jun 16th, 2026

Well, since not much has really happened there is really not much to add to the recent analysis.  So, I am simply going to add a couple of points from the daily SPX chart I am including in today’s update.As you can see, price has come back to the uptrend line and we seem to be hitting our heads on it as we speak.  Moreover, the MACD has not crossed up yet to even begin a suggestion that this is a sustainable rally.  And, when it does, we usually like to see it having crossed over for 3 days to signal a new uptrend has potentially begun.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Bulls Are Trying To Open The Next Door

With the SPX moving through the resistance box today, I have been forced to add a bullish alternative to the counts I am tracking.  But, I want to make it clear that this is in no way my preferred path at this time, and it will need to prove itself as per the outline below.For now, I am still viewing this rally as a (b) wave until proven otherwise.  But, we also need to see a CLEAR 5-wave decline to make it a strong probability that a (c) wave decline is in progress.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Small Changes - Market Analysis for Jun 15th, 2026

With the rally we are seeing today, I wanted to keep you apprised of where I think we are so that you can be appropriately prepared when the next buying opportunity arises.There are only two small changes I would make to the analysis from the weekend.  The first is in GDX. Due to the size of the move higher, I think it is clear that the recent low completed the 3rd wave of an ending diagonal in the c-wave for GDX.  With it hitting a low just beyond the 1.382 extension of waves 1-2 to the downside, this is a very reasonable bottom to the 3rd wave in a diagonal in metals.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Ugly Action as Market Sees More Whipsaw

Today, the market opened up slightly, followed by a small dip in the morning session, only to push sharply higher in the afternoon. We are currently trading at the highs of the day and have broken the most immediately bearish path that we had laid out yesterday. This is making the more indirect path lower, as laid out in the yellow count, more likely.With that being said, I still cannot rule out a more immediate drop from around current levels. However, under that case, I think it would be more likely that any direct move lower would take the form of an Ending Diagonal to the downside.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Direct May Not Be So Direct

The main point of this update is simply to remind you that pressure will remain down in the more direct path to our lower directs UNLESS we see a VERY CLEAR 5-wave rally take hold at higher than a micro level.  But, even so, I am still expecting a sizeable bounce soon in a 4th wave of the c-wave lower.Yet, I want to note that silver still retains some potential for the purple count.  Last night, we struck a 1.00 extension (a=c) low and have bounced.  Since I am counting a direct move lower as an ending diagonal, we really should be targeting at least the 1.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Weighing Competing Issues - Market Analysis for Jun 10th, 2026

Yesterday, I tried taking you through my thought process when I analyze the current SPX structure.   Today, I am taking it to the next step and adding in the new information we have seen since yesterday.We were trying to distinguish between the yellow larger (a)(b) structure and the more immediate downside 1-2 set up within the (c) wave.  In the later afternoon yesterday, the market rallied up to the .618 retracement of what I am viewing as the wave 1 down, but the rally could be counted as a 5-wave structure.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Likely More To Go

Analyzing the market is a process.  And, I want to take you through my process today as to how I determine primary versus alternative wave counts in our current situation.With the market striking the bottom of our target/resistance box, and then turning down, the primary question we have is whether we have begun the (c) wave down, or if the market is providing us with a deep (a) wave, and a (b) wave is yet to be seen?  And, with the market bottoming thus far in between the .382 and .236 retracements of the prior rally, it does not offer much in the way of guidance from that perspective.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago
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