Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Playing Around Over Support

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by Avi Gilburt - 11 hours ago

Last Chance To Hold As Market Tests The Lower End Of Support

Today we saw the market continue to push lower as we are now testing the lower end of support for the potential wave (iv) per the yellow count. If the market is able to hold around this region and turn higher on five waves, then we still can see this continue to push higher. However, a break of support here would open the door for a larger degree top to be in place for the white wave (b). So with that, the next couple of sessions should tell us a lot about where the market is headed over the next several months and potentially into the end of the year.
by Mike Golembesky - 4 days ago

Market Held Support Overnight, But Move

Today the market moved higher after holding support overnight. However, the initial move up off of the lows did not give us a clean five-wave impulsive pattern to give us initial confirmation that we have indeed bottomed in the yellow wave (iv). With that, the door remains open to a larger top being in place per the white wave (b), but we still would need to see a full five down off of the retrace from today's low to confirm this. As of right now, this is still not the case, so the market may still need a few more days to digest this action and give us a clear signal as to which way it intends to go.
by Mike Golembesky - 5 days ago

Metals Are Doing Everything Right . . And Then Some

As I posted earlier this week, there was potential for silver and gold to attempt a 5th wave off the July lows. And, as of my writing this update, gold has seen a higher high, but silver has been lagging. There is still potential for it to do so, so we will watch that carefully.GDX has not only given us 5 waves up, but the 4th wave was extremely shallow, as it hovered around the .236 retracement of the 3rd wave. And, with this extension higher now, we have the minimum number of waves in place for 5 waves up, which is exactly what we wanted to see to make it a higher probability that the next major rally has begun.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Small Change Of Plans

Needless to say, the high we struck last week leaves a lot to be desired as a completed wave v, which I mentioned yesterday. But, we have to take what the market gives us, and I now have to view wave (iii) as complete with that less than a desirable structure, as well as coming up a bit short of the ideal 1.618 extension. But, this is now how I am forced to count it.Yes, there are other interpretations as well, but I think this is the cleanest of the choices.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Getting A Bit Too Big

While I have been calling this pullback a wave (4) within wave v of (iii) (or c of (b) in the alternative count), the current pullback is getting to be a bit big for this wave (4). Yet, please recognize that it does not invalidate as a wave (4) until we break below the low of wave (2). So, for now, I am still leaving my count as this being a wave (4).But, that means we are going to need to see a rally begin rather soon or this runs the risk of invalidation. And, in truth, I cannot say that there is a better count, as the count as shown makes the most sense from multiple perspectives.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Interesting Potential - Market Analysis for Aug 17th, 2026

IF you remember, before we even caught a bottom in metals, I told you that I was going to be open to the market providing us with a 5-wave rally off the lows.  And, if we do see that in gold and silver, then the probabilities would increase that we could rally to new highs across the board.  I said this MANY MANY times.Well, there is potential for us to get 5 waves up in gold.  Silver has a similar potential but I am not as confident in the wave 1 in that instance as it does not count as well as a 5-wave structure.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Losing Steam - Market Analysis for Aug 13th, 2026

While the market finally began the rally we wanted to see to the next target overhead, the manner in which we seem to have rallied is leaving a bit to be desired from a structure standpoint.As a purist, I would view the rally today as completing the 3rd wave within wave (3) of v of (iii). That means we need one more rally to complete just wave (3) of v of (iii).  But, something looks off about the structure.So, for now, I am going to remain a purist and expect another rally to complete wave (3).
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Metals Got A Rest – But, No Downside Yet

We came into this week with the metals getting a rest with sideways action, but no downside has yet been seen. And, this was followed by another extension today. And, yes, there can still be one more small move higher before this wave completes, but it is still quite extended. Moreover, I still think it is quite reasonable to expect some downside in the coming week.What is interesting is that the more this extends in just this move alone, the greater the probabilities swing towards the bottom being in place already. What is also interesting is that gold and GDX have taken out their initial resistances, whereas silver still has not.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Sloppy Action But Market Still Holding Over Support

Today the market opened higher but retraced lower shortly after the open. We have since recovered some of that drop but are still holding over yesterday's low and, more importantly, over the larger-degree support zone, keeping the impulsive move up off of the July lows very much intact. This slow and sloppy action is starting to look like we may be forming an Ending Diagonal up off of the 8/6 low, but we still need to break out over the 8/10 high to further confirm that this is indeed the case.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago
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