Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Morning Update - Market Analysis for Aug 3rd, 2026

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by Avi Gilburt - 1 hour ago

I Have To Remain Objective

Despite all the issues I have outlined with the yellow count over these last several weeks, we have seen something today that is forcing me to be tracking it on the chart a bit more closely now.With the rally in the futures off the overnight low, I can now count a 5-wave structure but ONLY AS A LEADING DIAGONAL, which I do not view as highly trustworthy in and of itself. In other words, while there is some potential that this is a 5-wave rally, I think it is quite reasonable to also view this as a 3-wave rally.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Potential Break of Triangle

I am sending this update out due to the action we saw last night, wherein the futures seem to have invalidated the triangle count.  However, while the futures have now invalidated the triangle count, the SPX has not.  But, due to the futures invalidation, I have added the ending diagonal count to the 60-minute SPX chart, as that is starting to look a bit more likely with the futures invalidation.What this chart now shows is that 7480SPX is our resistance.  That is what I would view as the wave ii in this ending diagonal.  That now places this bounce in the overnight action as the b-wave in wave iii, with the wave iii target being the 1.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Sure Looks Like A Triangle

Unfortunately, there has been nothing to really move the needle in metals, as we have been going sideways now for the last five weeks. But, the one thing that I can add is that gold looks like an almost completed triangle.As you can see from the attached 60-minute gold chart, we seem to be working on the e-wave of that triangle, which can push higher one more time. So, the parameters seem to be rather clear. A break of 4023 (take note I am on the December contract now) would suggest we are in a 5th wave down.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Off To "E" Or Yet Another "ED"

After trading in very sloppy, overlapping corrective wave action over the past several weeks, we saw the market move lower this morning only to jump higher after the FOMC announcement and press conference. The question I now have is whether this sloppy corrective wave action is indeed a larger triangle still needing a push higher to fill out the final wave e of the triangle count, or if we are filling out yet another Ending Diagonal to the downside to finish off the larger wave (c) off of the highs.At this point, both counts are still viable, and the determining factor will be how high this moves in the days ahead before breaking lower once again.
by Mike Golembesky - 4 days ago

Will The Fed Be Our Catalyst Tomorrow?

The market is simply meandering between support and resistance, and has yet to commit. So, I will simply review quickly the options before us.My primary count has us in a (b) wave triangle, which, when complete, will resolve with a drop lower to the support box below in a (c) wave. Within that triangle, I am still questioning whether the d-wave is done. But, should we move through the 7480SPX region, then we are likely completing the e-wave of that triangle.As long as we remain below 7480SPX, then we may still be in the d-wave of that triangle. But, as noted yesterday, we must remain over the b-wave low of 7294SPX to maintain the triangle count.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

A Lesson In Triangles

One of the lessons I have learned through the years is that a triangle is not truly a triangle until it actually completes. There are a number of ways one can count a corrective structure, and a triangle is just one way. So, while this is looking like we are trying to form a triangle at this time, it can always invalidate and morph into something else. In fact, I have outlined over the weekend how this can still take us lower in a more direct fashion.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Market At Next Inflection Point After Finally Breaking Down

After taking the long road and making us wait for the expected break lower, the market is now sitting at the next key pivot/inflection point to the downside. If we can break through this region, it would provide further confirmation that we are indeed following the primary white count lower as part of the larger wave 3 of (c) down.With that said, until we see a break of this next pivot level, I still cannot fully rule out the yellow count. I will note, however, that today's breakdown has made that path even less probable than it has been over the past several weeks.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Is A Lower Low Out Of The Question Now?

Well, to answer the question in the title, I would say “no,” but the action we are seeing in GDX has made it more likely since we have broken through 77.So, let’s start with GDX. In order for us to see a lower low, I had to come up with a VERY creative count. And, when I say a “very creative count,” it means it is not something I would be trading aggressively. Rather, it simply means that if we are blessed with a lower low you would simply add more positions to the long-side.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Still Keeping Us Waiting

The market is trading flat on the day after moving down at the open and then back up in the afternoon. We are still trading under resistance, and the action up off of the low still remains corrective in nature. This action keeps the parameters I laid out yesterday unchanged, and as long as we continue to remain under resistnace my base case is still that we will see this resolve lower before breaking out to new highs.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago
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