Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Pushing On Resistance - Market Analysis for Oct 27th, 2026

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by Avi Gilburt - 5 hours ago

Expected Rally Seen, Do We Turn Down Now?

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by Avi Gilburt - 1 day ago

Market's Direct Push Lower Opens the Door to a Bottom Forming

Yesterday, the market gave us a relatively clean five-wave move to the downside off of the highs that were struck in the morning. After that initial five-wave move, we should have seen a corrective retrace higher to confirm that we were indeed dealing with an initial five-wave move down, thus setting up further follow-through in the form of the third wave down.Overnight and today, we saw the market continue to grind lower after seeing a very shallow retracement, which, rather than confirming the initial five-wave move, made that initial move much more ambiguous. Furthermore, the entire move down off of yesterday's high is now approaching the ideal target region for a standard ABC move off of the 10/6 high.
by Mike Golembesky - 4 days ago

Market Is Setting Up For Lower Levels

Today we saw the market move lower, breaking through all of our smaller-degree support levels, which were keeping the path to new highs per the blue count in play. With the move lower today, we now clearly have three waves up off of the 10/16 low, which is making a push to new highs per the blue count unlikely at this point in time and is far more suggestive that we will see further downside follow-through before any lasting bottom is found. So while ideally we see a retrace higher before a sustained break lower, with what can count as five down off of yesterday's high, the odds of seeing lower levels ahead are much more likely.
by Mike Golembesky - 5 days ago

Quick Morning Update - Market Analysis for Oct 22nd, 2026

I want to point out this morning that we now have the MINIMUM number of waves in place to consider this BIG correction complete in gold, as we have a minimum needed for wave (5).  Ideally, it does go to 4000 or a bit lower, but be aware it can bottom at any time from now.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Nothing Strongly Bullish YET

As I am starting to write this update a few minutes after midnight, I am seeing the metals attempting to break down in what I believe is the final push to the completion of this correction which began 10 months ago.Starting with gold, as you can see on the attached 13-minute chart, we are pressing against the pivot, which if broken, will likely then become resistance. At this point, I think the ideal target should take us just below 4000, but it can extend as deep as the 3800 region depending on how this progresses.While silver may have begun its drop to the 53.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Market Fails to Give Us Convincing Evidence That It's Ready to Break Higher

Today, we saw the market rally higher, keeping the path alive to see another higher high. However, we have since retraced back lower at a fairly key level, which is giving us further evidence that we are indeed working on the yellow wave b and will see lower levels before breaking out to new highs. On the smaller-degree timeframes, this would look better with a very small push over today's HOD to finish off the wave v of (c) of b in Ending Diagonal form, but the rejection right at the 61.8 retrace certainly is a warning sign that this may be topping sooner rather than later.
by Mike Golembesky - 6 days ago

Market Is Not Making This Easy

While the market did drop to the support box I outlined as my preference in yesterday’s update, and we did rally off that as a 3rd wave normally would, we stopped short of the minimum target for a wave iii of 3, which has added some complexity to the region within which we now find ourselves.So, I was debating whether I should wait until the end of the day to do the update. But, I decided I am going to lay out the paths before the end of the day, and that is what the rest of this update presents.Let’s start with the yellow count.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Probabilities For Higher Highs Have Increased

If you read my analysis over the weekend, you would know that I was watching the rally off Friday’s low very carefully to see if we get any clues that the market may still try to reach higher highs, as per the blue alternative count.Most specifically, we were seeking a reasonable 5-wave structure off the low. And, the futures seem to have provided us with that structure in the after hours market into the overnight session on Sunday night. I have included that wave count on the 3-minute ES chart attached. Thereafter, we seem to be tracing out a corrective wave 2, which you can also see on the 3-minute ES chart.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Testing the Lower End of Support

With today's sharp drop, the risk of the market having already put in a top in the larger diagonal off of the June 9th low has certainly increased. We are currently testing the lower end of the key support zone for the potential wave b, as I am showing in white on the SPX chart. However, if we continue to push lower over the weekend and early next week, then we will have confirmation that we have indeed topped in all of the diagonal off of the June lows.For now, I will be keeping a very close eye on the 7585 level below, which represents the 76.4% retracement level from the move up off of the September 16th low.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago
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