Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Nothing Yet To Really Get Excited About

We have now spent five days below the all-time high, and we have yet to even break the initial support at the 7320SPX region.  So, at this point in time, I cannot even say with confidence that the blue wave 1 or green wave 5 is done with its upside.  Although, I do suspect it is done.With that being said, I want to remind you that if we have indeed struck a major high, it means we have likely concluded a major ending diagonal structure.  And, one of the hallmarks of the conclusion of a diagonal is a very strong reversal.  Needless to say, that is not what we are seeing.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

It’s Not Easy Being Purple

No matter how many times I warn people about how evil a larger degree b-wave can get, I still see people getting caught over-trading during these environments.  And, it is usually because they have not been through many b-waves before and they believe that the death by a thousand cuts (that is typical of trading b-waves) simply will not apply to them.  And, while Kermit the frog is famous for proclaiming “it’s not easy being green,” I am sure Barney would proclaim similarly, “it aint easy being purple either.”  And, that certainly applies in our current situation, as the evil potential within this market still will not die.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Market Moves Lower But Still Over Downside Pivots

Today, we saw the market move lower; however, we have yet to clear the downside pivots, keeping us in a bit of suspense as we move into the middle of the week. There are a few different ways to count the downside action, none of which are terribly reliable, so for now my main focus is going to be on the larger price pivot/support levels below.As shown on the ES chart, the first pivot level that I am watching comes in at the 7352-7328 zone below. We will need to break this zone, followed by a break of the 7289 level, to start a more accelerated move lower as part of a wave iii of c down.
by Mike Golembesky - 4 days ago

Have We Finally Put In A Local Top?

Last week, we saw the market finally move lower after a very extended move higher over the past month, opening the door for at least a local top to be in place. Today, we saw further downside follow-through, further opening the door for at least a local top to be in place at last week's high. While we still have some downside pivots that will need to break to further confirm that we have indeed put in a top, the action today, which has been corrective to the upside, is very much supportive of this case.
by Mike Golembesky - 5 days ago

Approaching 3.618 - Market Analysis for May 14th, 2026

As I noted in my earlier update, the SPX is now approaching the 3.618 extension of waves i-ii off the end of March low.  And, yes, this is extreme.  But, there is still no clear indication that a top has been struck.  Minimally, we would need to see a strong break down below 7320SPX to suggest that the blue wave 2 or the red a-wave is in progress.In the meantime, I have noted over the last week that the IWM may still be attempting to complete an ending diagonal, as outlined on the 60-minute IWM chart.  However, admittedly, this diagonal is a bit wonky with the size of wave iv being relatively large.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

What Is Reasonably Probable?

In law, much of what is analyzed is based upon what is viewed as reasonably probable.  And, as smart investors and traders, we also base our analysis, investing and trading upon what is reasonably probable.  Moreover, we do the same thing when engaging in Elliott Wave analysis as well.  And, this is to what Paul Tudor Jones was referring when he noted:"I attribute a lot of my success to Elliot Wave Theory.  It allows one to create incredibly favorable risk reward opportunities"A reasonably probable expectation for a standard impulsive structure is that a 1-2 initial set up projects to the standard target of the 2.00 extension of that set up.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Quick Update - Market Analysis for May 13th, 2026

As it stands right now, we have a set up to take the metals much higher.  But, they do not seem to be set up in the same manner.I posted the charts below in silver trying to outline the micro count in this rally, although I cannot say that I have a high degree of confidence in the smaller degree count, it is the best option from those I am seeing.  And, as long as we remain over the wave ii low on the 5-minute chart, then I am looking higher to complete wave 3 of this purple c-wave.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

To Hell With Risk

If you have learned the story of the legendary trader Jessee Livermore, then you would know he made an absolute fortune shorting the market during the 1929 market crash.  But, what most people do not know was that his success went to his head and he made bigger and bigger trades without recognizing the risks, and ultimately died broke and committing suicide by a self-inflicted gun-shot.  The lesson one should walk away with is risk is a double edged sword and must be wielded wisely.Yet, today, it seems many are completely oblivious to the risk inherent in a parabolic rally such as we are currently seeing.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Finds Support, Have We Begun The Fifth Wave Up?

Today, the market moved lower right into the upper end of the support zone that we laid out for the potential green wave (iv) and has moved up sharply off of that low. This is leaving the door open for a local bottom to have been found as part of the larger Ending Diagonal wave structure that has been laid out per the green count. With that being said, we still have some key resistance levels overhead that will need to break before we have confirmation that we are indeed heading to new highs.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Close, But No Cigar

With the crazy machinations we have been seeing of late in metals, I thought it appropriate to write an update a bit earlier than normal.With the market making a higher high yesterday, I could have made the argument that gold was providing us with a 1-2, i-ii upside set up.  However, the spike low today invalidated that potential.  So, it still leaves us with a potential for a 1-2, as shown in purple on the 13-minute GC chart.But, at the same time, there is also a reasonable count for 5 waves down in gold and silver.  I have outlined those counts on the attached 13-minute GC and 5-minute silver charts.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago
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