Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

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Has The Next Bullish Uptrend Begun?

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by Avi Gilburt - 6 hours ago

Quick Morning Update - Market Analysis for Oct 30th, 2026

Well, we FINALLY got this lower low in gold, and this can complete this entire decline now. This now looks VERY full. To confirm the bottom is in, we need to break out through the downtrend channel on the 60-minute chart, and then through the wave (4) should make it highly likely that we have begun the (b) wave. Of course, if the rally begins in impulsive fashion, we will have considerations for the yellow count. But, for now, I am expecting a corrective rally in 3-wave structures which is why we will need a break out over resistance for confirmation.In silver, while my minimum ideal target of 53.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Not Many Good Choices

We had a very interesting end to the day yesterday. While the SPX did not see an invalidation of its wave 2 in yellow, it certainly went deeper than the standards we normally see for a 2nd wave. And, this often portends a break of the set up. Yet, the SPX has still retained the set up.However, the ES – just after the market closed yesterday – spiked up and then spiked right back down. And, yes, the ES saw its immediate bearish set up invalidated through this action. However, there are a very small number of times I have seen in the past where an after-hours futures move was to be disregarded due to the lower volume after hours action.

by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Metals Testing Resistance Too

With the bounce we have seen in metals this week, they all seem to be testing their respective resistance regions.GDX right now is close to a potential invalidation point for the immediate decline path I have been tracking. But, close is not good enough. We need to see a 5-wave rally through the resistance of 84.80 with the 5-wave structure completing in the ellipse noted on the 8-minute chart to provide us with a potential wave (i) of wave i of (3). For now, we remain below resistance so that would still suggest a lower low.Silver and gold are also both below their respective resistances, so there is not a lot for me to add at the moment.

by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Local Top Taking Shape, but Deeper Decline Still Needs Confirmation

Today, we saw the market grind higher into the FOMC announcement and press conference, only to hit its head on both the 100% extension of the initial move up off of the 7646 low and the 88.6% retracement of the move down off of the 7812 high. That high was made on what counts best as three waves, as well as negative divergence on the 30-minute MACD, with the 60-minute MACD trying to roll over.

by Mike Golembesky - 5 days ago

Pushing On Resistance - Market Analysis for Oct 27th, 2026

As I write this update, the SPX is certainly pushing on the top of our resistance box. And, if you remember, I am maintaining the primary count of the 1-2 to the downside as long as the market does not break out through the resistance box in a sustained manner.But, I also warned that this market has not been kind to short traders. That is why it is wise to wait for the market to provide to us a 5-wave decline to fill in wave i of wave 3 before making the assumption that the heart of a 3rd wave down in the yellow c-wave of wave ii is likely in progress.

by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Expected Rally Seen, Do We Turn Down Now?

In my weekend update, I outlined my reasonable expectation for a rally to be seen this week, which should provide us with a 1-2 downside structure in our primary wave count. As I write this update, we have struck our wave 2 target/resistance box.The question now is if we begin another smaller degree 5-wave structure to fill in wave i of wave 3 (as outlined on the 5-minute SPX chart), or does the market push a bit higher into the resistance box?Well, I can make out a small 5-wave decline off today’s high. So, there is some potential for the wave i of 3 decline to have begun.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market's Direct Push Lower Opens the Door to a Bottom Forming

Yesterday, the market gave us a relatively clean five-wave move to the downside off of the highs that were struck in the morning. After that initial five-wave move, we should have seen a corrective retrace higher to confirm that we were indeed dealing with an initial five-wave move down, thus setting up further follow-through in the form of the third wave down.Overnight and today, we saw the market continue to grind lower after seeing a very shallow retracement, which, rather than confirming the initial five-wave move, made that initial move much more ambiguous. Furthermore, the entire move down off of yesterday's high is now approaching the ideal target region for a standard ABC move off of the 10/6 high.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Market Is Setting Up For Lower Levels

Today we saw the market move lower, breaking through all of our smaller-degree support levels, which were keeping the path to new highs per the blue count in play. With the move lower today, we now clearly have three waves up off of the 10/16 low, which is making a push to new highs per the blue count unlikely at this point in time and is far more suggestive that we will see further downside follow-through before any lasting bottom is found. So while ideally we see a retrace higher before a sustained break lower, with what can count as five down off of yesterday's high, the odds of seeing lower levels ahead are much more likely.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Quick Morning Update - Market Analysis for Oct 22nd, 2026

I want to point out this morning that we now have the MINIMUM number of waves in place to consider this BIG correction complete in gold, as we have a minimum needed for wave (5). Ideally, it does go to 4000 or a bit lower, but be aware it can bottom at any time from now.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

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Market Update

Has The Next Bullish Uptrend Begun?

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