Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

I Have Been Waiting

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by Avi Gilburt - 46 minutes ago

Market Remains Resilient - Market Analysis for Oct 9th, 2026

After moving lower yesterday, the market pushed back higher today, keeping the door open for further upside action and another push to new highs. Furthermore, today's move has invalidated the potential for a five-wave decline off the highs, making the possibility of a top in an expanded b wave less likely.Unfortunately, the overall pattern on the smaller timeframes remains quite messy. As Avi noted yesterday, the SPX does technically have enough waves in place to consider at least a local top, so we still need to remain cognizant of that possibility. That said, I am personally still leaning toward the market pushing at least a bit higher before any significant top is formed.
by Mike Golembesky - 3 days ago

Could We Have Topped?

With the market pulling back even more today, the question asked in the title of this update has to be on the table at this time.As we have explained in the last two days, if we are dealing with a diagonal to the target overhead, then the 3rd wave came up short of the standard target. So, it clearly places into question whether this pullback is a wave 4 in that diagonal.However, should the market break down below the wave 2 (7700SPX) in that potential diagonal, then we completely invalidated that count as shown. And, it then brings to the forefront the question asked in the title.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Almost There? - Market Analysis for Oct 7th, 2026

With the expected decline today, the metals market is clearly closer to the completion of its correction. But, I just do not have sufficient evidence to suggest that it is done.While silver has now dropped to the top of the next target/support box on the 5-minute chart, the rally off that low really counts best as a 3-wave structure. And, since a c-wave or a wave iii would be a 5-wave event, we have no indication that the floor to this correction has been found and that a rally has begun.Gold has taken a step closer now to lower lows. What will be interesting is if gold gets a marginally lower low and silver does not.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Both Counts Have Issues, but One Has Fewer Than the Other

Today, the market pulled back and broke the support level that had been keeping the potential impulsive micro pattern off the 10/1 low intact. With that break of support, we are now left looking at another potential ending diagonal pattern to complete wave c of (v) within a larger diagonal. That larger diagonal could be either a leading diagonal per the yellow count or an ending diagonal per the red count.Now, this smaller-degree diagonal off the 10/1 low certainly has its issues and is far from ideal.
by Mike Golembesky - 5 days ago

Progressing Through The Rally

With the market continuing higher today, we have now moved towards the 1.00 extension of the move off the recent lows, and have turned down. I have added a support box for you to track for continuation higher.To remind you again, it seems likely that this rally is taking shape as an ending diagonal. And, within ending diagonals, wave 3 targets the 1.236 extension of waves 1-2. So, I am expecting that we will hold over support and rally to the wave 3 target in the 7870SPX region.OF course, should the market break down below support in an impulsive manner, then that will bring the alternative b-wave count to the forefront.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Still Not Complete - Market Analysis for Oct 5th, 2026

With the market pushing higher today, it has to force us to view another shallow wave 2 as having completed. If you look at the 5-minute SPX chart, you will see that I am now viewing us as being in wave 3 of the ending diagonal taking shape for the c-wave of wave (v).But, due to how shallow the potential wave 2 was, if forces me to extend our target for wave (v) just a bit higher. This makes the ideal target for this c-wave of wave (v) the 7920-7975SPX region.Also, I am leaving the alternative count as presented before – the potential bigger b-wave. But, the more this rallies, the less the probability of that potential.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Paths Clearing Up?

With today’s drop to lower lows during this pullback, I think the market is taking the ending diagonal path to complete the c-wave of the (y) wave in a bigger b-wave pullback. Yes, I know, this structure has gotten quite complex.But, even within this complex structure, the ideal path suggests one more low to the 7632-7643ES region. Let me explain.If this is indeed an ending diagonal for the c-wave of the (y) wave, today we bottomed at the 1.236 extension of waves i-ii in that structure, which is typical for wave iii in a diagonal.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Still Refuses to Provide Much Clarity

Today the market moved higher only to move back lower in the afternoon session. That move up and then back down left us with three waves off of yesterday's low, so we still do not have confirmation that a bottom is in place for all of wave b. The move down off of today's high also counts best as three waves on the smaller timeframe, which does not yet confirm a local top either.This leaves us trading in a bit of no-man's-land on the smaller timeframes.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Pressure Remains Down In Metals . . For Now

As of my writing this update just before 2PM on Wednesday, the pressure remains down in the metals complex. So, let’s look at each of the 3 charts individually.As we know, we have been trying to determine if this pullback is a 2nd wave (or even a b-wave when it comes to silver and gold), or whether we are going to see levels lower than seen this past summer before the next rally begins. And, the market has not yet made that clear.In GDX, I really have no evidence that the green wave (2) should be a strong wave count at this time.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago
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