Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Metals Are Certainly Trying

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by Avi Gilburt - 1 day ago

Market Remains In No-Man’s-Land Territory

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by Mike Golembesky - 2 days ago

No Man’s Land

As I wrote earlier this week and this morning again, with the taking out of lower resistance ovenight, we have moved into no-man’s land wherein I do not believe we can view one potential as being a higher probability than the other on the 5 and 15 minute charts. Although I will add that the downside path has a greater Bayesian probability than the yellow count based upon Luke Miller’s work, I cannot say that the two Elliott Wave counts being presented here stand out on their own as one being a higher probability than the other.In the blue count, yesterday’s low completed a very overlapping and unclear a-wave decline.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Quick Morning Update - Market Analysis for Sep 17th, 2026

Thus far, the metals have held where they have needed to for their respective 2nd/b-waves.  But, we did not get a clear 5 up in standard fashion.  Can we call it a leading diagonal?  Sure.  But, as you know, they are not reliable enough for me.  So, I am going to be a bit more cautious until we invalidate downside potentials. In GDX, that means a break out over 101.83.  In gold, that means a break out over 4560.  In silver it means a break out over 69.  And, should we move higher in the coming days, I may raise my stop to the lows we just struck yesterday.  And, I want to see a bigger degree 1-2.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Quick Morning Update - Market Analysis for Sep 17th, 2026

Just a quick morning update.With the move over the prior wave ii count, we have invalidated the prior count. And, as I said, this puts us into no-man's land as long as we are below wave 2.  These are the two paths I am now tracking and I cannot say I like either.  But, over wave 2, then we have to assume the yellow count.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Market Breaks Lower, Providing Further Confirmation of the Downside Count

After testing the 7660–7640 support zone on the ES chart over the past several sessions, the market finally broke below that zone and moved through the lower pivot at 7611. This provides further confirmation that we are following the downside pattern.While we have not yet broken below the ultimate support level for the alternate wave (iv) count, today’s action supports the need for further downside before a lasting bottom is found. Keep in mind, however, that we are likely working on an ending diagonal down from the 8/13 high. The path lower will therefore likely remain sloppy, with subdivisions that are difficult to track.
by Mike Golembesky - 4 days ago

Catalyst For Decline - Market Analysis for Sep 16th, 2026

As it stands right now, it would seem that we do not have any clear impulsive moves off a low in the metals charts. Therefore, this means we only likely have seen a corrective rally, suggesting one more drop. And, with the Fed up today, it could easily be a catalyst for that drop.Now, remember, I cannot count a clear impulsive rally which is why I think there is another drop coming. This is not set in stone, but just seems more likely to me right now based upon what I have seen thus far. Clearly, we can morph into a leading diagonal or something, but as of now, it seems more likely that we drop one more time.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

The Floor Is Creaking But Has Not Yet Broken

We certainly did see downside follow through as we generally expected, but the fact that the SPX/ES refuses to really break the recent support region of prior lows is leaving me seriously questioning any potential downside follow through.In truth, the manner in which we are currently set up would normally point us to the lower end of the support box below. But, the fact that we have not broken down yet does leave me concerned about that follow through.While this could be a 1-2, i-ii, (i)(ii) structure in the making – which means the morning high should not be broken to the upside – we will need to see downside acceleration sooner rather than later.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Another Downside Set Up?

Yes, folks, I am presenting another downside set up. We are about even in this region with regard to the ones that have had some follow through and the ones that have not. But, at this time, I would be remiss in my obligations as an analyst to at least point it out.From the high we struck last week, there is a reasonable count for 5 waves down into today’s low.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Market Analysis for Sep 14th, 2026

Silver was a typo . . it should be 60.81.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago
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