Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

It's Déjà Vu All Over Again

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by Mike Golembesky - 2 days ago

Pressure Remains Down as We Approach the Next Downside Pivot

After moving higher in the morning session, we saw the market move lower in the afternoon session and break the low that was struck yesterday. This is keeping the pressure down in the equity markets, and as long as we continue to move higher in a corrective fashion, this pressure should continue to build to the downside. With that being said, there are still two viable bearish paths that I am viewing as likely. How the market moves through the Fibonacci levels in the days ahead will help differentiate which path we are following if we are indeed heading lower.
by Mike Golembesky - 3 days ago

Layering In As We Speak

With the metals approaching our initial target zones to mark the end of this correction which began in January, I have personally now deployed approximately 50% of the capital I have designated for buying mining stocks.   And, if I may remind you, our MMA analysts have put out a buying list of individual mining stocks earlier this week.  So, let’s look at each of the charts individually.  Starting with silver, as I have said, I am going to leave the count I have noted on the 144-minute chart, which points to this only completing the wave 3 in the final 5-wave structure within this c-wave.  That means my primary analysis expects another 4-5 before this completes.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Market at First Key Inflection Point to the Downside

Today, the market moved sharply lower, opening the door for the larger wave (b) top to be in place at the 6/15 high. With that said, we still only have three waves down off that high so far and are currently sitting at several key Fibonacci support levels that will need to break to the downside to keep that path in play. If we are unable to break those levels and instead turn back higher, then it would open the door to a few different paths that could still ultimately take this market higher.
by Mike Golembesky - 4 days ago

Trying To Make It More Reliable

As I outlined over the weekend, the potential 1-2 downside structure was not terribly reliable due to the wave 1 being a potential leading diagonal.  And, as I have noted many times before, leading diagonals are not reliable since they resemble corrective structures and often invalidate as leading diagonals.Therefore, we wanted to wait for another 5-wave decline to signal a 1-2, i-ii structure is developing.   With today’s decline, have that potential.  Ideally, I would much prefer a lower low for a better wave i of wave 3, but a corrective bounce at this time could provide us with a nicer set up for this 1-2, i-ii downside set up.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Trying To Keep It Simple

With the move down from this week’s high not counting well as a standard Fibonacci Pinball structure, it leaves us with the potential that the initial move lower was a leading diagonal for wave 1 of the (c) wave.  And, assuming this is the correct count, that makes today’s bounce a wave 2.This is where I add my usual warning about leading diagonals not being strong trading cues, as they can just as easily be a corrective structure.  It is for this reason that I seek confirmation with a clear 5-wave decline for wave i of 3 to make this structure a much higher probability in following through to the downside.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Point Of No Return

With the metals market seemingly topping out today, we may have now dropped to the point of no return.   You see, due to today’s drop, this is either going to be the start of the 5th wave to lower lows, or, yes, if we break back out over today’s high, then we will be looking at the revenge of the purple count.  It seems that simple to me at this time.I also want to remind you that a 5th wave decline in an ending diagonal takes shape as a 3-wave structure, breaking down as an a-b-c decline.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Continues To Push Lower, But Structure Is Far From Clean

Today we saw the market continue to push lower after moving lower yesterday as well. Unfortunately, the structure of the move to the downside is far from clear, and if we have indeed topped in all of wave (b), the initial move down has likely taken the form of a leading diagonal. While this can certainly qualify as an initial five-wave move to the downside, this structure is not the most reliable of patterns.The move up off today's low is, however, taking the form of three waves, which provides us with a bit of support for the idea that we still have further downside action ahead of us before making any new highs.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Summer Doldrums - Market Analysis for Jun 16th, 2026

Well, since not much has really happened there is really not much to add to the recent analysis.  So, I am simply going to add a couple of points from the daily SPX chart I am including in today’s update.As you can see, price has come back to the uptrend line and we seem to be hitting our heads on it as we speak.  Moreover, the MACD has not crossed up yet to even begin a suggestion that this is a sustainable rally.  And, when it does, we usually like to see it having crossed over for 3 days to signal a new uptrend has potentially begun.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Bulls Are Trying To Open The Next Door

With the SPX moving through the resistance box today, I have been forced to add a bullish alternative to the counts I am tracking.  But, I want to make it clear that this is in no way my preferred path at this time, and it will need to prove itself as per the outline below.For now, I am still viewing this rally as a (b) wave until proven otherwise.  But, we also need to see a CLEAR 5-wave decline to make it a strong probability that a (c) wave decline is in progress.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago
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