Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Market Sees (Big) Day of Consolidation

It’s not often that a 6% intraday move is classified as a consolidation, but given yesterday’s extraordinary spike higher, today’s action appears to be just that—corrective in nature, rather than impulsive. The magnitude of yesterday’s rally expanded the trading range significantly, which makes today’s sizable pullback feel more contained than it otherwise might.Despite the sharp move lower, the structure of the decline is clearly corrective, unfolding in three waves off the highs rather than five. As long as we continue to hold above key support levels, my base case remains that we’ve likely struck a local bottom at yesterday’s low and are now in the early stages of a move higher.
by Mike Golembesky - 4 days ago

Was That It?

Well, this morning, both the IWM and EEM made lower lows, and they could be considered completed in their downside structures.  But, as we know, the ES tested its lows overnight, but did not exactly make a lower low.  This type of action makes it much harder to provide confirmation that the low is indeed in place.   But, I think the weight of evidence is starting to shift towards that conclusion.  So, I am going to work on that assumption for now, but I am going to keep one eye open for the potential of a lower low.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Silver Is Never Easy – Until It Explodes

Now, the purpose for which I am providing this analysis to you is not to make you go out and mortgage your house and buy silver calls.  I want you to be very deliberate and reasonable when you approach this chart I am going to show you.   But, the reason I am posting it is because I want you to understand what I still expect to see in the silver market before a major top is struck in the metals complex.If you look at the attached SLV weekly FRACTAL chart, you will see two ellipses noted on the chart.   The one on the left represents the consolidation before the explosion in silver in 2010-11.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Still Looking For One More Decline

While the market slightly breached yesterday’s high, I am maintaining a primary count that has today’s high as the 4th wave of the [c] wave.   This means that my primary analysis is seeking an ideal 5-wave structure to complete this [c] wave of the a-wave.But, as we know, the market does not always provide to us our ideal expectations.  Therefore, I have added an alternative count that suggests the low we struck on Monday completes the a-wave in a w-x-y pattern.  But, since w-x-y patterns are more rare, I am leaving that as our alternative.The difference right now between the alternative and the primary is based upon today’s high.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Are We Ready To Bottom?

In the weekend update, I outlined my view that wave 3 should be ending imminently.  And, as of my writing this update, it would seem to be the case, as the market has now seemingly rallied in wave 4.I am not going to try to micro-manage this too much, but I just want to note that wave 4 can continue another day or two, and it would actually be preferable from a technical standpoint.  While the MACD on the future’s 60-minute chart is providing us with a nice positive divergence set up should we get that 5th wave lower low, the SPX 60-minute chart is only starting to curl up.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

GDX Broke Upper Support

I just wanted to send out a quick metals update after today's action.GDX has just broken its upper support and the daily MACD is trying to curl down after a negative divergent top.  So, while there is potential for the yellow to increase in probabilty right now, I am not seeing a CLEAR 5 wave decline YET.  I may have to consider a truncated top with yesterday's rally.  So, will watch it closely.As far as silver is concerned, it looks like we are in a 5th wave in the (c) wave of the a-wave of a larger wave (ii), the former yellow count.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Faster Than Expected - Market Analysis for Apr 2nd, 2025

Clearly, I was looking for the move down to the 5000SPX to provide more of a set up, as I thought we would get more of a bounce in the daily MACD.  The market may have other plans.I am going to put this very simply.  As long as the market remains below the pivot noted on the 60-minute ES chart, then we have a more direct path to the 5000-5100SPX region.  Should the market break out over the pivot first, then we will have to reset our wave count.  But, as long as we are held below it, pressure will now remain down.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Leaves Us Hanging Once Again

Today we saw the market open lower only to move up into our first key upside pivot level during the morning session. Unfortunately we failed to see a sustained break of that level before the market turned back lower after the lunch hour. This is leaving the door open to several possibilities none of which are what I would consider terribly reliable patterns. This of course, is the nature of corrective wave patterns, which is what we have been dealing with for the past several months.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Gold Looks Toppy - Market Analysis for Apr 2nd, 2025

No, I am not outright bearish of gold.  But, I have to point out that it is really looking toppy right now, after quite a nice extension.  And, with the MACD on the 60-minute rolling over, well, I really am not sure how much juice this has left in the tank to extend higher.As I noted earlier this week, I would need a sustained break-down below the 284/85 GLD support before we have our first signal that a top of some sort has been struck.For now, I am going to view that top as wave 4 within the c-wave of [v] of v of [3].
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

The Purple Path - Market Analysis for Apr 1st, 2025

As it stands right now, we have a break-out over the 5615SPX resistance, but the market is now pulling back from that move.  The initial move through that resistance makes an immediate lower low a lesser likely probability at this time, which now brings forward the purple count to a higher probability.The question now the market will resolve is how the 1-2 structure in the purple count should be completed.  And, there are two potentials I have placed on the 60-minute ES chart which are both quite reasonable, although I like this current pullback for the bigger wave 2.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago
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