Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Market Breaks Upper Support but Holds Lower Support

Today, the market broke lower, moving beneath the upper micro support that I outlined yesterday. With that break, focus now shifts to the larger support zone below, which has held thus far. From here, we will need to closely monitor the structure to the upside to determine whether the market can develop a full five-wave move higher, followed by a break of overhead resistance. That type of action would provide an indication that the market is ready to put in a bottom and push to new highs in the weeks and months ahead. Alternatively, failure to do so would suggest the market has other intentions and may be setting up for a deeper move lower.
by Mike Golembesky - 4 days ago

Extreme And Dangerously So

To call this move in gold now “extreme” is beyond an understatement.  Moreover, not only did we get the spike out of the channel in continuation of this parabola, but it has even accelerated further, which now places us in what I believe to be a dangerous environment.  These types of moves usually end with a VERY strong reversal and drop to the region from which this diagonal began.With regard to the wave structure in gold, I am seeing this as a very extended wave v of the c-wave of within the 5th wave of the ending diagonal, which you can see on the 60-minute chart.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Market Is Still Holding Support, But the Small Caps Stil May Be Telling a Different Story

Today, we saw the market open higher, only to pull back into the key micro support zone that I laid out yesterday. While the bullish count I have been tracking on both the SPX and Nasdaq remains intact for the time being, the Russell 2000 chart still shows a potentially bearish resolution, at least in the short term. In fact, the bearish count on the Russell 2000 is actually a bit cleaner than the potentially bullish count I am watching on the SPX and Nasdaq. While I will continue to give the SPX the benefit of the doubt in resolving higher, the count on the Russell 2000 has me becoming even more cautious in this region.
by Mike Golembesky - 5 days ago

Market Continues to Push Higher Toward the Smaller-Degree Target Zone

Today we saw the market push slightly higher and then consolidate for most of the afternoon. As we approach the close, we are still sitting over key micro support and continuing to follow our Fib Pinball path as expected so far. With that, today’s update is fairly straightforward: as long as we can remain over key micro support, the pressure will remain to the upside.Earlier today, we hit the 138.2% extension of the initial wave (i) up, as shown on the charts, which sits at the lower end of the target region for a standard wave (iii). From there, we saw a flat consolidation for much of the afternoon.
by Mike Golembesky - 6 days ago

Market Pushing Higher, But Small Caps Are Flashing a Warning Signal

After moving lower overnight and hitting the c wave down I was looking for last week, we saw the SPX and Nasdaq push higher today, so far following the primary path higher. That said, the Russell 2000 is not looking nearly as strong today. In fact, I can make the case that we have five waves down off the highs into the overnight low, followed by only a very weak three-wave retrace higher so far.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Market Trades Higher, But The Count Remains The Same

Today the market traded higher, but from a wave count and analysis perpective there is very little change from yesterday's update. We still only have three waves up off the low with no confirmation of even a local top just yet. As I noted yesterday, even if we do continue higher, the most likely scenario would be in the form of a larger ending diagonal. That would imply a choppy and overlapping path toward new highs that will be difficult to track with a high degree of certainty.My focus will remain on the structure of the next pullback.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Late Cycle Action - Market Analysis for Jan 21st, 2026

As I have outlined many times before, the gold and mining stock market bottomed at the end of 2015, and we have since been involved in a 10+ year bull market in gold and GDX. While silver bottomed later, it has caught up rather well, as is typical of silver, and all the charts seem to be suggesting this is late cycle action.Of course, there still could be another 4-5 to still be seen, which is my alternative count in silver and gold, but my primary count in GDX.  But, we have to recognize that this is likely an auspicious time to be harvesting profits we have earned over the last 10 years.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Finds Support But We Are Still Not Out Of The Woods

Today, the market pushed higher after finding support yesterday. While that is a constructive development, we are still not out of the woods. At this point, we only have three waves up off the low. Even if we do continue higher, the most likely scenario would be in the form of a larger ending diagonal. That would imply a choppy and overlapping path toward new highs that will be difficult to track with a high degree of certainty.From here, my focus is on the structure of the next pullback.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Market Testing Key Support

Today the market opened lower and continued to trend lower throughout the session. As we move into the close, price is trading near the lows of the day while testing a key support zone. How the market responds to this area should provide important clues regarding direction as we move through the rest of the week and beyond.Given how stretched the market has become over the past several months, there is certainly a risk that a larger-degree top may already be in place. That said, we still need to see a few key downside hurdles cleared before we can have confirmation that such a top has been struck.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

No Breakout for the Bulls Just Yet

Today the market pushed higher and tested the overhead pivot, which, if broken, would have provided a signal that the market was ready to move higher in the weeks ahead. However, as we moved into the close, the market began to break undera key micro support level. If we see a sustained break of this support level then it increases the likelihood that today’s advance was simply a wave b within a larger move to the downside.While further confirmation is still required with a full five-wave decline off the highs and a sustained break of support, the initial poke under micro support is the first indication that we are unlikely to see immediate upside follow-through.
by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago
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