Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Of Course, It Has To Get More Complex

Surprise, surprise.   The market seems unable to provide us with a standard 5-wave rally for the c-wave.  Instead, if the market is going to head higher in a more immediate sense, then this c-wave is taking shape as an ending diagonal.  Of course, if we break down below the noted wave 2 on the 5-minute SPX chart, then I will have to move into the alternative b-wave in blue.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

GLD Continues To Chug Along And Follow Its Outlined Path

I wish everything in the metals complex would be as relatively easy as GLD has been for many years.   While it occasionally provides us with a twist, it has been rather strongly adhering to the wave count expectations we have presented for many years.As we stand today, I am seeing us completing wave [iii] of v, which can be clearly seen on the 60-minute GLD chart.  That means that I am expecting a wave [iv] pullback in the very near term.  Support for that pullback is the micro 1.00 extension I the 274.70 region, based upon the [i][ii] structure within wave v.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

I Am Looking Higher

With the market still holding support, I am viewing the recent lows as quite important in my analysis.   For as long as we hold over those lows, my view is still going to be represented by the green count, pointing us north of 6200+ over the coming months.  Within that green count, I am now looking for a c-wave rally into the resistance box noted on the various charts.  In the green count, that would be the [a] wave of a bigger a-wave of wave v.  In the smaller degree structure, which I am presenting on the 5-minute SPX chart, I am showing an alt-b on that chart as I am unsure if the c-wave has begun.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Market Moves Higher And Through The First Pivot

Today we saw the market continue to push higher breaking through the first micro pivot level giving us initial confirmation that we have put in at least a local bottom with the low that was struck last week. We still need to see further upside follow-through to further confirm that a bottom is in place but the break of the micro pivot is certainly a good initial start. Drilling down to the 3 min SPX chart we can see that we have moved over the 5681 level. With the break of that level, I am counting us having formed a very shallow wave b/2 at the low that was struck at the 5611 level.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Must See A Bottom To Keep Green Alive

There really is not much more room I am going to give the green count at this time.  We are now hitting lower lows as outlined in my last updates, and the market has a positive divergence set up on the 60-minute chart again.   Will it hold the divergence and support?   Well, again, I cannot tell you that answer.  But, I can tell you that if it is going to hold the green count, this is generally the last region I can view as holding for that count to remain viable for me.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Still No Breakout In Metals YET

Silver is a chart that has me on my toes right now.   It has been grinding up to its pivot of late, but I am still of the opinion that we can see more of a pullback.  If you look at the attached 8-minute chart, you will see how close we are to the pivot, which is the .618 extension of waves 1-2, within wave [3].   And, within that wave 3 of [3], I have a i-ii, [i][ii] count as well, after wave ii pulled back and held the .618 retracement of wave i.  Also, take note that I have adjusted the larger degree pivot on the 144-minute chart, which if broken through would have me in wave 3 of [3].
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Showing Some Signs Of Life But Still No Confirmation Of A Bottom Just Yet

Today we saw the market continue to push higher off of the lows that were struck yesterday. We have, however, yet to see a strong breakout over resistance nor a sharp reversal that we would expect to see once an ending diagonal ends. So for that reason and until we see a breakout over resistance and that sharp reaction we still cannot say with a high degree of confidence that even a local bottom has been struck just yet. Bigger picture, there really has not been any changes to the count as we are still trading over the lows that were struck yesterday.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Are Probabilities Shifting?

As I am writing this, the SPX is peeking below the support we have been watching so carefully.  And, as I outlined before, this would increase the probability of the red count.  The next lower support is the in the 5495SPX region, wherein [y]=2.00*[w].  And, that is a sizeable extension in this decline, beyond which would be hard to entertain the green count.  Also, take note that the bigger uptrend channel on the 60-minute chart is sitting in that same location.  While I clearly did not want to see us breaking the 5550SPX level, I am going to give the green count a bit more room to that point.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Just Lookin Around - Market Analysis for Mar 10th, 2025

So, I decided to take a quick look at two of the other indices, and they are both showing signs of an important inflection.First, the IWM.  It is now at a point where, just like the SPX, we really should see a bottom and a rally.  Now, that rally is likely going to be a wave 2 in a big ending diagonal down for a [c] wave.  However, the deeper we drop here, the more likely we are in wave iii of 3 in the red count, which would mean that the next bounce will likely only be to the pivot.  That would then set up a wave v of 3 down.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

You Will Know It

As the market continues to leak lower and lower, we are now in the middle of our support box.  As I write this, we are approaching the point at which the [y] wave would be equal to 1.618 times the size of the [w] wave within the 5621SPX region.  But, support does extend down to the 5550/5560SPX region.  And, until that is breached, I am maintaining my view that this is the wave iv in green, pointing us to a 5th wave yet to go.But, of course, should the market break down below this support, and follow through below 5400SPX, that would begin to change probabilities to the top as potentially being in place.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago
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