Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Wave c of B confirmed, another subdivision higher expected

Futures surged higher yesterday evening, breaking out above last week's high to confirm that wave c of B is indeed underway off of Thursday's low. Based on that expectation, price should be finishing wave (iii) of c, so another (iv)-(v) is expected before wave c of B completes.If the pre-market high struck this morning completed wave (iii) of c, then so far we do not have a deep enough pullback or long enough consolidation that looks like wave (iv) of c convincingly complete already.
by Garrett Patten - 3 days ago

Market Is Setup To Push Higher But We Are Not Out Of The Woods Just Yet

After pulling back into support today, the market saw a push higher on what does count best as a micro five-wave move to the upside. We are currently testing the top of that micro five but have yet to break over that high. We still have some key overhead resistance levels that will need to be taken out to confirm that we have indeed bottomed, and until those levels are broken, there still is a risk of seeing lower levels before any significant bottom is found.The most important overhead resistance level remains at the 6684–6728 region.
by Mike Golembesky - 4 days ago

Market Consolidates Under the Pivot All Day

Today we saw the market open slightly higher and consolidate in a very tight range all day, just under the key pivot that, once broken, would confirm we are indeed in wave c of the larger (b) up. As of right now, we still do not have confirmation that we have indeed begun that c wave up, and we still could see a deeper retrace before that move occurs. For now, we will remain in a bit of a wait-and-see approach as we continue to hold below the key pivot.
by Mike Golembesky - 5 days ago

Expectation for b-wave pullback satisfied, but not clearly complete yet

In the pre-market update this morning I noted that price had reached the .500 retrace at 6502 that was the preferred target I mentioned in the update I sent out last night, but that the structure off yesterday's high looked like a possible 5 down. Therefore, it at least needed to be considered that the pre-market low only finished wave (a) of b, with the circle b-wave could turn into a wider flat.Price cooperated by continuing higher following the open, retracing almost all of the overnight drop and coming close to retesting yesterday's high but for now still trading below there.
by Garrett Patten - 1 week ago

Something Evil Is Raising Its Ugly Head

With the metals charts pushing just past their resistance, it is certainly raising the probability of the evil purple count.  And, if you remember, this means that this rally will likely continue much further in the coming days and possibly weeks, only to set up a c-wave crash-like event to complete this larger a-b-c structure in the metals.The one that is starting to look more likely as this path is GDX.  As far as gold is concerned, unless we see a 5-wave decline begin rather immediately, I may have to switch to this alternative over the coming weekend or early next week.Yet, silver can still easily be a wave 4 rally.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Continues To Push Higher, But We Are Still Not Out Of The Woods

Today, the market continued to push higher, and we can now reasonably count the move off the lows as a five-wave structure. This increases the probability that a bottom has been put in for wave (a), and that we are now progressing within a larger wave (b) to the upside. That said, we have not yet cleared a key resistance region on both the SPX and the Nasdaq, which keeps the path to another low very much in play. In addition, the Nasdaq still lacks a clean, completed structure to the downside, which adds another layer of caution and further supports the possibility that another lower low could still develop.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Is the Market Ready to Rip Higher?

Today, we saw the market push higher overnight and follow through into the afternoon session. This opens the door to the possibility that wave (a) has bottomed, potentially completing the Ending Diagonal we’ve been tracking over the past several weeks.If that Ending Diagonal is indeed complete, we should expect a continued, strong move higher, targeting the 6900–7029 region overhead.That said, there is still meaningful resistance above that must be cleared before we can confidently confirm a sustained move higher. Additionally, I have some concerns with the Nasdaq structure, as I cannot yet identify a completed Ending Diagonal into the recent lows.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Competing Patterns - Market Analysis for Mar 30th, 2026

I always find it a challenge when we have one pattern playing out in the SPX and another in the futures.  As I write this, the futures have struck the support I noted over the weekend at 6360ES, and have seen a large rebound off that low.  However, the SPX pattern seemed incomplete, which is maybe why we are seeing the lower lows in SPX, whereas this may only be a corrective b-wave pullback in ES.  And, that is how I have it analyzed on the various charts.Of course, this will apply ONLY if the futures can hold their overnight low.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

(a) Wave Seemingly Not Done

With the market unable to develop any real rally attempt for a c-wave, it has forced us into the perspective that the (a) wave has not yet completed.  And, that suggests that we have a date with the 6360SPX support zone next.   I now have that as my primary count.While the market can certainly drop to that region in a more direct fashion, it would not surprise me to see yet another twist in this action.  You see, the initial rally off the recent lows could have been an a-wave in wave 4, with this pullback being a b-wave, followed by a c-wave rally.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Market’s Footing Is Getting Shaky

My thesis coming into this week was that we were completing an ending diagonal for the c-wave of the (a) wave in this current corrective pullback in SPX.  Therefore, I was expecting a strong reversal, which should take us back to the region from which the diagonal began in a very swift move.While the week started out by following that perspective, the fact that we have stalled now for almost two full trading days is starting to get a bit concerning about follow through in this potential (b) wave bounce back towards the 6850-6900SPX region.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago
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