Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Market Remains in No Man's Land

Today we saw the market turn sharply lower and then find support into the afternoon session. We are still trading well under the HOD but have yet to break micro support to the upside, which still leaves a number of possible paths on the table as we head into the close. I will note that I think the Nasdaq is painting a slightly cleaner picture at the moment, but we will need to see how things follow through in the days ahead before we really have a better idea as to the market's intentions as we move into March.I have cleaned up the ES chart a bit and, unfortunately, have to show three potential counts for the time being.
by Mike Golembesky - 4 days ago

Setting Up The Next Leg Down

As I outlined over the weekend, the silver chart was providing us with the clearest path as to how a b-wave can potentially complete.  And, I would say that this is still true.   So, let’s look at the smaller degree chart in silver as our guide.From the weekend update, we were looking for the market to minimally continue this rally towards the 93 region, which is the .500 retracement of the initial decline off the all-time high in silver.  Today, the market approached the 92 level and has seemingly backed off.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Decision Time - Market Analysis for Feb 25th, 2026

For this afternoon's update, I am simply going to repost two alerts I presented in the room today, as it really lays out how I see the smaller degree structure right now:10:25AM Alert:These two paths are now coming to a head.  We have moved through the pivot on the SPX structure, which normally suggests we are moving higher in a wave iii of 3.  But, there are a number of issues here.  First, we are approaching the 1.00 extension, which could be all of the a-b-c of a corrective rally as shown on the 15-minute ES chart, which is also approaching the .764 retrace of the initial 5-wave decline.  That leans to a bit more of a bearish interpretation.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Market Holds Support, Pushes Higher, But Remains Beneath Overhead Resistance

Today we saw the market do exactly what it needed to do to keep both scenarios alive. Price came down into the key support levels outlined in yesterday’s update, held firm, and responded with a push higher. That said, while the bounce is constructive, it is still corrective in nature, and importantly, we remain under overhead resistance.As it stands, the rally off the recent low is only three waves. With that being said, because the red count is structured as a larger Ending Diagonal, it does not require a five-wave move to remain valid. That keeps the red count very much in play here. However, without five waves up, the structure of the next pullback becomes critical.
by Mike Golembesky - 6 days ago

Market Pushes Lower but Continues to Hold Key Support

We saw the market move lower overnight, retrace that entire move in the early morning, and then roll over sharply once again. As of this writing, we are sitting just above key support, which keeps both the bullish and bearish counts alive for now. As we have been noting over the past several sessions, the price action in this region has been extremely sloppy, making it difficult to lean too heavily in either direction.Adding to that uncertainty is what I am counting as a somewhat incomplete topping structure for the potential wave 2. That lack of ideal structure reduces confidence in the bearish white count, though it does not invalidate it.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Context Is Important - Market Analysis for Feb 21st, 2026

This market has been frustrating.   What’s more so, it has been frustrating since 2022.  But, the question is why has it been frustrating?  Well, normally, the markets move in standard 5-wave structures which makes prognostication and trading so much easier.  But, since 2022, this market has been taking shape in waves of 3, which are much more like corrective structures, and are much more variable and difficult to navigate.   This is the nature of the beast with which we have been dealing over the last 4 years.  Yet, understanding your environment provides a huge advantage.  You see, when you know you are in an environment of 3-wave structures, it tells you that you cannot be as aggressive as you would otherwise.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Cloudy, With A Chance Of Diagonals

Well, up until now, I have given the benefit of the doubt to the bulls.  However, that benefit of the doubt is starting to erode.With the lack of follow-through to the upside, we have been reducing the probability that the bulls can still take us higher one more time before the bigger correction begins.  As of the time of my writing this update, the only path I can maintain for the bullish follow through is via a leading diagonal.  And, as you may already know, I do not view them as strong trading cues.Yet, the bears are not doing much better, as any potential for a wave i down is also only left to a leading diagonal structure.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

I Can Only Give To You What I Can See

I am presenting you with three charts, all telling me somewhat different stories.  So, I am just going to get into the charts.Starting with gold, while I can fashion an argument to claim that this b-wave has completed, I cannot say that I would wholeheartedly believe it.  It would have made much more sense if the market had begun this decline from the February 11th high in impulsive fashion.  Then I would be able to more strongly consider that this b-wave has concluded and the c-wave has begun.  But, that is not what we have seen.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Bullish Scenario Needs a Stick Save

Today, we saw the market open higher and continue to grind higher into the afternoon session, only to be rejected right at the 61.8% retrace of the move down off the highs. We are currently testing a key micro pivot that, if broken, would exhaust any reasonably probable bullish scenario that I could see that would take this to new highs before breaking back under yesterday’s low. So, as of the time of this writing, we are at a very key inflection/pivot level, which, if broken, will clearly give the edge to the bearish path.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

You Decide - Market Analysis for Feb 17th, 2026

I am going to lay out what I seeing in the SPX/ES charts, and you can decide how it should be viewed.  From the bullish side of the market, we have now completed 5 waves into today’s low.  And, in the yellow count, this could complete a much more protracted yellow (b) wave, suggesting a (c) wave rally north of 7100SPX has begun.  Moreover, the MACD on the 60-minute chart seems to have reset down to the region from which rallies have begun.In order for me to have confidence in the (c) wave rally, I would need to see a rather clear 5-wave rally off the low.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago
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