Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Next Target Reached - Market Analysis for Sep 11th, 2025

Today, the market has now reached the target we set once the market made it clear it was heading to new all-time highs last week. And, as you can see from the attached 5-minute SPX chart, we have reached the upper portion of the larger degree target box, which is where I was calculating this current extension was pointing us towards.But, just because we have struck a target does not necessarily mean the market is going to stop.   We have seen some ridiculous extensions these last several months, which really reminds me of the early 2020 time period.  So, just because the market has reached our target does not mean it is time to short.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Market Testing Micro Support

The market opened higher today but drifted lower into the afternoon session. While we did register a higher high, which could represent a potentially complete pattern, price action remains firmly above even the uppermost support levels. As such, we do not yet have a signal of a local top.As long as support holds, further direct upside extensions remain in play. However, a break of support would provide an early indication that a local top may be in place. To confirm a more meaningful top, lower support levels would still need to be taken out. At this point, the market remains well above those key levels.On the ES chart, upper micro support currently comes in at the 6519 level.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Market Testing Micro Resistance

he market opened flat today, with a minor corrective pullback in the morning followed by a steady recovery into the afternoon session. Prices are now trading near the highs of the day and pressing into the lower end of the micro retrace resistance zone from last week’s decline.A sustained push through this region would provide the first confirmation that the market is ready to extend higher toward new highs. On the other hand, if resistance holds and we turn lower in a clear five-wave structure, that would leave the door open for at least a local top to be in place.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

The Market Hasn’t Made a Decision Yet

Today’s session was largely uneventful, with the market trading flat and showing little follow-through. As such, not much has changed from the prior analysis. From a structural standpoint, the pattern would look cleaner if we were to see another push to a higher high to further develop a potential Ending Diagonal off the 9/2 low. However, today’s lethargic action offered no clear signal that we’re ready to accelerate higher just yet.At the same time, the case could be made that the pattern is already complete at current levels. With that in mind, I’ll be watching Friday’s low closely as an important downside pivot.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Market Testing the Upper End of Micro Resistance

After last week’s pullback into Monday's session, the market has pushed higher over the past two sessions and is now pressing into the upper end of the standard retrace zone from the decline off the recent high. If the market can respect this upper Fibonacci retrace level, the door remains open for another leg lower, potentially in a wave c. However, a sustained break above this level would increase the likelihood of seeing another higher high before any meaningful top is found.From a bigger-picture perspective, not much has changed from what we’ve outlined in prior updates and can be seen on the 60-minute chart. On the smaller time frames, the ES is now approaching the 88.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Fast Move To Resistance

Before we could blink, the market is already at the resistance region I outlined yesterday when we were at the lows.  So, the question now is if the market can follow through and begin to break support?Based upon the high struck today, we could develop a 5-wave decline to suggest that the c-wave down has begun.  We will need to see a 5-wave decline taking us to 6400SPX or lower to provide us with wave i of a c-wave or 3rd wave down.  Until that happens, no one should view a break of support as becoming a higher probability.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

My Path Forward In Metals

For those that have followed my work in metals through the years, you would know that we have caught just about every major turn in the charts for many years.  And, that is because we follow the structure of the market very closely, as well as apply the standards that have worked for us for the 14 years I have been publishing my metals analysis publicly.Of late, I have been struggling with this action in gold, as while I have been expecting a correction since April, I have been seeking a standard 4th wave formation.   Yet, thus far, that is not what we have seen.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Downside Follow Through - Market Analysis for Sep 2nd, 2025

As outlined in the weekend update, the market was set up for further downside early this week.   Moreover, I also noted in the weekend update that we did not have any structure in place that projected more than a test of the important support below us on the 5-minute SPX chart.  And, that seems to be what we are getting today.Furthermore, the decline today seems to complete a potential initial 5-wave structure off last week’s high – which is easier to see from the ES chart. So, I am able to maintain the red count on the chart – at least for now.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Silver Break Out?

Silver has now taken out the resistance I noted over the weekend.  Of course, this now opens silver up to starting its run to back to its all time highs.  But it will clearly not be direct.  For now, I am still going to give the (b) wave just a bit more room.  But, if we take out this adjusted resistance box, then we are either in a big wave 1 of wave (3) or we are actually in wave 3 of (3).   Both counts are quite reasonable if we are already breaking out.  Therefore, the next buying opportunity I would look towards IF . . again, IF we are breaking out is wave 2 or wave 4.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Still Squeezing Higher To Target

As you can see on the 5-minute SPX chart, we are only a few points to the minimum target expectation.   But, in truth, the ideal target is actually higher in the 6528SPX region, which is the 1.764 extension of waves 1-2 in this ending diagonal which began earlier this month at 6212SPX.So, while we clearly do not have an initial indication of a top being struck, I am on the lookout for a reversal now.Today’s pullback low at 6467SPX is our micro support.  And, as long as we remain over that support, this can continue to squeeze higher.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago
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