Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Market Still A Bit Of A Mess

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by Mike Golembesky - 1 day ago

The Structure Of The Next Pullback Will Be Key

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by Mike Golembesky - 2 days ago

Will The Pullback Hold?

After a 5-wave rally, it is expected that we see a pullback. And, that is where we currently reside within the metals complex as per our expectations.As I write this update, both GDX and gold are within their respective 2nd wave pullback targets, and can still see a bit lower before they complete.But, silver has diverged a bit thus far. In fact, silver struck the top of its support box and has since rallied in what may be a 5-wave structure for wave i. And, since the overnight high struck, we can consider this as a i-ii structure within the next wave already.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Risk Is Now Rising Again

With the market now pressing higher as per our expectations, we have two paths in the micro count. And, I am putting this update our early because we are at a potential point of completion.As you can see on the 5 minute charts, this is either the completion of a 5-wave structure for either the a-wave of the (b) wave, or it is the wave (1) in green. That means it is reasonable to expect a pullback imminently.But, of course, we have some guidance to tell us if we are wrong in this assessment.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Pullback Leading To Higher?

With the current pullback we are seeing, we have turned down where a traditional a-wave would do so. And, that remains my primary wave count for now.That means that as long as this pullback remains corrective, and we hold the support region noted on the 5-minute ES chart, I am expecting another rally in the coming days for a c-wave of the (b) wave.There are some qualifications within that last statement. First, we must hold support. Should we break support, especially if we do so impulsively, then the (b) wave may be completed already. But, the decline thus far is not looking terribly impulsive, and counts better as a corrective structure.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

It's Decision Time - Market Analysis for Nov 10th, 2026

I think we have done a good job of getting you to this point in the metals complex.  We have what seems to count relatively well as a 5 wave rally off the recent low in GDX right into our target box, which I have counted as wave i of (3).  Since then, we have pulled back to the support box I added to the chart for a wave ii.  At this point, there is not much more for us to do.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Quick Update - Market Analysis for Nov 9th, 2026

It is really very nice that we are seeing a higher high in the GDX for a potential 5th wave for wave i. But, the problem is that if this gets too carried away, we could wind up getting an a=c rally off the low which would be more akin to the alternative wave 4 in yellow.  Yet, it is quite large for the yellow count potential, but it would likely mean that we should be able to hold the 70 region if we are to see a 5th wave decline for the yellow wave count.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Narrowing Down The Paths

When you consider that there are infinite number of paths the market can take, I have always found it quite amazing how Elliott Wave analysis can narrow that down to just two or maybe three paths. And, over the, weekend, I was considering three paths, with two ultimately pointing lower after an expected bounce. Now, with the bounce taking us beyond the resistance point I noted in the 5-minute chart over the weekend, I can narrow this down to two paths. And, I am viewing the bearish path as a bit more likely right now.Let me expecting. The rally off the recent lows was clearly a corrective mess at the end of last week.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Market Is Not Providing Any Evidence of a Lasting Bottom In Place Just Yet

Today, we saw a very muted reaction off of the lows after yesterday's sharp drop lower. This reaction is certainly not a positive development for the green count, which needs to both hold the 7235 low and give us a five-wave move to the upside to remain operative. So, with the inability to provide us with that five-wave move, I have to move to the red count as my base case for the time being and adopt the green count as an alternate path.I noted in the main room that the futures charts are quite sloppy at the moment, given some of the overnight action, but the cash charts do appear to be tracing out a cleaner Fib Pinball pattern.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Down, But Not Out . . YET

This has been quite the bull market. We have seen VERY shallow retracement over these last several years and the bulls have pushed these markets to extremes which I was not able to foresee back in 2020 when we began looking much higher at the Covid lows. At the time, my maximum expectation was around the 6000SPX region from the 2200SPX lows.Needless to say, all good things must come to an end. But, does that mean we are at that end now?While I was expecting some downside into today, as outlined in the update yesterday, I did not expect that this upside set up was going to break today.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago
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