Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

No Signal Of A Top Just Yet

After a strong move up yesterday we saw the market take a bit of a breather with so far just a shallow retracement off of yesterday's high. Furthermore, that retracement has so far held over our upper support/pivot level not giving us any initial signal that we may have put in even a local top. So overall there is not too much to add to the previous analysis and we will continue to watch our support/pivot level as we move into the end of the week. The move into yesterday's high satisfied the internal subwave structure that we needed to see to give us a potential top in the red wave 4.
by Mike Golembesky - 6 days ago

We Got Our Push Higher

With the expectation for a follow through higher today now met, and even carrying us further than I would have expected in one day, we are now at a point where the market is going to make a decision again.While this still is potentially a wave 4 rally as presented in red, it is taking us quite deep even for an ending diagonal.  Yet, I can still maintain the count since this is only 3 waves up off the recent low this far.However, due to the size of this rally, it clearly has opened the door to the yellow count, as we have moved through the 1.00 extension and the a=c target for wave 4.  We are actually now approaching the 1.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Metals Are Still Trying

While we have had various indications that a low could be in place in the various charts we track (as I have been noting about the daily MACD indications), we still have not seen a “clear” 5-wave rally off that low to make that a much higher probability.  And, at this time, the only way we would see that potential in GDX and silver would be with leading diagonals.  Yet, as I have said many times before, leading diagonals are not the most reliable of trading cues, as they so often are really only corrective rallies.In silver, the market seems to be attempting a 5th wave rally for wave [1].
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Setting Up For Another Push Higher

With the market rallying yesterday and into the overnight hours, there is enough of a pattern in place that I cannot completely rule out the yellow count at this time.  So, for now, it will remain on the chart as an alternative.But, let’s now discuss what we can see in the coming day or so to either confirm or invalidate that potential.I have notated the attached 5-minute ES chart with the paths I am tracking, as it has all the waves that we have seen off the low in the market, whereas we are missing some of that movement in the cash SPX.  So, let’s focus on that for now.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

What Does This Bounce Mean?

With the market seemingly trying to take us lower in a more direct fashion, it would seem the red diagonal count for the c-wave is what we are going to primarily follow.Normally, the 3rd wave in a diagonal targets the 1.236 extension of waves 1-2.  And, in truth, there are actually two ways I can count wave 1.  But, the more extended manner of counting wave 1 has us a bit shy of the 1.236 extension at the low this morning. So, it may be done already.Now, since I need an alternative count, I have added an expanded flat for the b-wave, which is highlighted in yellow on the 5-minute chart.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Whipsaw Not Done Yet

Today we saw the market open lower only to move a bit higher in the afternoon session only to hit its head on resistance leaving us in a very similar stance to where we sat yesterday. The big question still remains as to whether we are dealing with a triangle wave pattern for this potential b wave or if the market has other intentions. As of right now the market is certainly showing the common traits in that we typically see in a triangle wave pattern namely three-wave price action that is staying inside of the previous lows and highs.
by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago

Bigger Picture Looks Better Than Smaller One

The title just about says it all right now.   As I have been highlighting of late, the divergences seen on the daily GDX and GLD charts would normally have me pounding the table on the long side.   However, I still do not have a solid 5-wave structure in place off those lows for me to confident about such table pounding.  And, that is really the whole story right now.As we can see in the GDX, we still have not even taken out the micro pivot.   That will be necessary, followed by holding over that on all pullbacks in order to complete a more appropriate 5-wave rally structure to suggest the low is in place.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Are We In A Triangle?

One of the hallmarks of a triangle is the constant whipsaw we see as the market moves in a-b-c fashion through 5 various segments of the triangle labeled [a][b][c][d][e].  One of the other hallmarks of a triangle is that at least one of the 5 segments takes shape as a complex structure, and often we see two of those complex segments.   Furthermore, the [d] wave is often a complex structure.If we are indeed in a triangle, this is a b-wave triangle, and I have used the white lettering to label the various segments of this triangle. We can also see that the [b] wave of this potential triangle was a complex structure.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Back To The Top

With the market rallying back towards the recent highs again, I cannot say that much has changed from my weekend analysis.While the red wave 2 count is a little less likely now that we have exceeded the .618 retracement, I am still leaving it on the chart for now.  Moreover, the [c] wave of the triangle still remains quite in play as well, and I will retain both of these counts as long as the market remains below the high struck on 12/26 of 6049.75.  Should the market take out that high of 6049.75, then I will only have the yellow [b] wave count left on the chart for a near term bearish resolution.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

What Do We Know?

With the drop in gold below micro support today, I wanted to take a moment to discuss what we know and what we don't know.First, it is clear that we do not have a 5-wave rally in place off the low, other than in GDX, which is of very micro degree, and unreliable.Second, since we do not have a clear 5-wave rally off a low, it likely means that a low has not yet been struck.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago
Down Arrow

Free 15-Day Trial

• S&P 500 Wave Analysis
• Gold, Silver, Oil & US Dollar Reports
• Stocks, Options, Cryptocurrencies & more
• Live Coaching & Webinars
CREATE A NEW ACCOUNT
No Credit Card Required
Previous or current members login here.
1 Free Trial per Person
By signing up you agree to our terms and privacy policy. You will receive access to our Trading Room, plus account-related emails and our weekend e-newsletter containing news, updates & promotions from ElliottWaveTrader. You can withdraw your consent at anytime.

OUR MEMBERS SAY ...

I live Finance. 80hrs a week corp finance. I trade as a hobby and in my opinion this is the best site in the world for someone to learn about markets... i rue the day when it is no more or its core is changed. there is NO BETTER SITE IN THE WORLD to get the off-cuff input/feedback/knowledge across ALL MARKETS like this site... Thank you to the analysts here who grind out thousands of charts each week.
"GibsonDog" - Trading Room
My faith in God and my faith in Avi and his team. God lead me to this service over 10 years ago. For a decade I have heard Avi point his bat at this very moment in time calling this S&P level. Though the years I have witnessed him point his bat months, even years before metals hit their highs and lows with almost perfect big picture accuracy. Against every other analysts opinion. I have seen him bullied relentlessly on his public articles on SA and stick to his guns and proven so correct with no one ever apologizing or admitting he called it.
"sdmavrick" - Seeking Alpha
My AUM has grown exponentially because of you and I can't thank you enough. My biggest regret is not signing up sooner! You've done more good than you will ever know.
"AAMilne" - Trading Room
I’ve subscribed for 5 years now and I have to say I see that you’ve been right on this the whole time. Who would’ve thought gold and silver would’ve rallied with rates this high for this long and the markets continued higher as well. Always thought your charts were good but always thought in the back of my mind that rate cuts and other news actually led. So now that I’ve admitted defeat u are free to gloat. Well deserved
"Lil_G" - Seeking Alpha
I worked on trading desks at top investment banks for 10 years, then traded on my own for another 8. I've seen 100s of research from the best analysts in the business. Avi and EWT is the only one I'm willing to pay for right now.
"tzeyi" - Seeking Alpha
CNBC had a stat this morning that over the last 20 years 86% of money managers/hedge funds have underperformed the market. They couldn't figure out why that’s the case given how 'smart' these people are. . . . I know my performance since joining the site has skyrocketed!
"HenryH" - Trading Room
At times like these, I want to express my hearfelt thanks to the whole analyst team and especially to Avi, for superb and timely guidance & insight as well as mental support :) A trading/ market analysis service just does not get better than this one is.
"Silverado" - Trading Room
I've been managing money since 1981 and ... I've never seen anyone handle fibs like him [Avi].
"halburris" - Seeking Alpha
This is literally the greatest advisory service - bar none.
"MJK" - Trading Room
I’m convinced, EW theory is THE best way to approach markets for investing/trading. Whether you’re scalping micro moves, day trading swing trading or long term investing, EW always has you covered. Most people have a lens or a way they view the market but how consistent over time is it? For myself I like fractals and have made life changing trades off them. But as my trading days add up [and] the value of EW becomes clearer, especially when coupled with fib #s, I have to give credit to you Avi for this!
"bullhammer" - Trading Room

  Matched “”
x