Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Can Bears Push It Over The 6550SPX Line?

Today, price has spiked below the pivot.  But, the action we are seeing after that spike is more of a "comeback" so far than it is a follow through.  The market had a potential 1-2, i-ii downside set up that has developed, which should mean that a heart of a 3rd wave down should be in progress.  That means that once the market breaks down below the pivot between the .618-764 extensions of waves 1-2, and drops to the 1.00 extension or lower, then the likelihood resides with the 3rd wave down.  However, it must then remain below the pivot on the wave iv of 3 bounce in order to keep pressure down in wave v of 3.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Small Discrepancy Between Futures and Cash Market

Small Discrepancy Between Futures and Cash MarketWhen the futures display a different pattern than the SPX cash market, it does lead to some uncertainty.   And, that is what I am seeing in the difference between the SPX and ES at this time.  Allow me to explain.The overnight action in the ES last night provided us with a higher high, which does make the rally off last week’s low seem more like a 5-wave structure for wave 1 of the c-wave rally in green.  However, the SPX does not have that additional move higher.  It still remains below its resistance of 6774SPX . . for now.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Quick Morning Update - Market Analysis for Nov 14th, 2025

I have been warning that this region is treacherous, and it still is.  There are several ways this can still resolve, but I really do not think an immediate run to higher highs is most likely.  The question will be on how we go lower.As you know, once we broke the micro pivot the other day, I outlined the potential for the market to drop down to the 6550-80SPX region.  And, that is still well within reasonable probabilities.  I have added a path for that in purple on the 15-minute ES chart.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Still Treacherous - Market Analysis for Nov 13th, 2025

I am sending out the update early, as the initial path I had outlined has basically been invalidated.  So, I wanted to outline what I am seeing right now.  I want to start by noting that I am clearly not "bullish" in the bigger picture up here, nor am I buying every dip like there is no tomorrow.  However, I have to note that the market has neither broken any major support levels, nor has it given us a strong indication that an ending diagonal has completed.  Therefore, it forces me to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt at each potential opportunity.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

This Could Get Treacherous

Yesterday, I outlined a potential path that could take us towards the 7000 region with VERY shallow pullbacks.   And, overnight, the market has made an attempt at following through with that path.  But, with a break down below a micro pivot, we seem to have failed.   This has now opened two paths of which I want you to be aware, and both are relatively treacherous.Should the market be able to maintain over the 6805SPX level, then we may be tracing out an ending diagonal for this c-wave, as shown on the attached 5-minute chart. Once completed, we will likely see a strong reversal, the extent of which can give us indications as to the degree of top we have struck.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

We Are At Yet Another Metals Inflection Point

I am sending this update out earlier than usual as I believe we are approaching an inflection point now in the metals complex.Based upon the last few week’s price action, it was not easy to maintain an expectation of a bigger (b) wave rally.  However, we have now finally seen what I had wanted to see these last few weeks.  And, now that we have, we are approaching a test for our primary count.As you know, our primary count had the initial decline in the complex as an (a) wave, with this rally being a (b) wave, which was structured as an a-b-c move higher.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

The Unstoppable Train - Market Analysis for Nov 11th, 2025

One way or another, the market seems to be signaling it wants to reach that 7000SPX milestone on this amazing rally off the April low.  To see a rally like this is not terribly common (which is why I did not expect it), but this is what the market seems to be presenting us at this time.  With the rally off last week’s low already approaching the .764 retracement of the prior decline, and the fact that the rally looks like a 5-wave move off that low, it makes it much more likely that we are going to head to higher highs off the low struck last week.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market in the Resistance Zone

Today, we saw the market continue to push higher after bottoming on Friday, with the ES trading up over 1.5% at the time of this writing. The price action off Friday’s lows has produced very shallow retracements, making it difficult to get a clean read on the smaller-degree structure. Because of that, I’m going to rely more heavily on the larger-degree support and resistance zones to guide us until we get more clarity on the short-term wave action.We are currently trading within the larger B-wave resistance zone, which still leaves the door open for a potential top in that B wave.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Everyone Hates B Waves

After pushing higher in three waves yesterday, the market turned lower once again today, slipping slightly beneath Tuesday’s low. While a pullback was certainly not unexpected, that minor break complicates the near-term count, leaving us with several potential paths in play.And that’s the nature of B waves, they rarely stick to the script. They twist, turn, and frustrate both bulls and bears alike, making them one of the most unreliable segments of the Elliott Wave sequence.At the time of this update, price is still testing the micro resistance zone.
by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago

Note Of Caution - Market Analysis for Nov 6th, 2025

As I was reviewing the metals charts this morning, I wanted to send out a note of caution before I left for the day. While my preference has been for a higher (b) wave bounce across the metals complex, I have noticed that both GDX and GC can be considered as completing a (b) wave triangle this morning.  While I do not have the same potential in silver, it still is enough evidence of a potential completing a (b) wave that requires me to send out this note of caution.Should we see an impulsive break down in GDX below 68, in GC below 3935, and in silver below 47.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago
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