Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Market Tests Resistance and Holds For Now

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by Mike Golembesky - 2 days ago

Not Much To Add To Metals Analysis

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by Avi Gilburt - 2 days ago

Likely Downside Still To Come – But, Which Path?

With the market pushing a bit higher today, I have taken off the 1-2, i-ii structure, and instead, have moved to a 1-2 structure in an ending diagonal for the (c) wave, with us still working on the wave 2.The alternative is still the yellow count, for which I have added a resistance box at the .764-1.00 extensions, wherein the c-wave in the yellow (b) would be equal to .765-1.00 the size of the (a) wave.What these two facts suggest is that the next 150 points overhead (as the alternative (b) has the 1.00 extension in the 7650SPX region) represents a lot of risk.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

An Exercise In Patience

With the manner in which the market has been moving back and forth in a corrective structure this last week or so has certainly provided us with an exercise in patience, especially since it has not yet tipped its hand as to how this correction will complete.And, if you noticed, I am speaking of it as a “correction” for now because there is no indication that a major top has yet been struck.  We have no clear sign YET that a major ending diagonal structure has completed, so I have to start leaning a bit more towards the blue count at this time.But, even so, I still have no completed corrective structure for even a blue wave 2.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

It's Déjà Vu All Over Again

Today the market moved higher overnight, only to drop sharply in the early morning session. Since then, we have been range-bound between the overnight high and the morning low. While the action was certainly volatile this morning, the overall count has actually not changed at all, and today's action has put us right back where we were at yesterday's close. I am still viewing the same three counts that I laid out yesterday as viable, and until we see a break of the support or resistance levels discussed yesterday, they will all remain in play.WHITE COUNTI am still watching this count; however, with today's action, I am viewing it as slightly less probable than the red count.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Pressure Remains Down as We Approach the Next Downside Pivot

After moving higher in the morning session, we saw the market move lower in the afternoon session and break the low that was struck yesterday. This is keeping the pressure down in the equity markets, and as long as we continue to move higher in a corrective fashion, this pressure should continue to build to the downside. With that being said, there are still two viable bearish paths that I am viewing as likely. How the market moves through the Fibonacci levels in the days ahead will help differentiate which path we are following if we are indeed heading lower.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Layering In As We Speak

With the metals approaching our initial target zones to mark the end of this correction which began in January, I have personally now deployed approximately 50% of the capital I have designated for buying mining stocks.   And, if I may remind you, our MMA analysts have put out a buying list of individual mining stocks earlier this week.  So, let’s look at each of the charts individually.  Starting with silver, as I have said, I am going to leave the count I have noted on the 144-minute chart, which points to this only completing the wave 3 in the final 5-wave structure within this c-wave.  That means my primary analysis expects another 4-5 before this completes.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market at First Key Inflection Point to the Downside

Today, the market moved sharply lower, opening the door for the larger wave (b) top to be in place at the 6/15 high. With that said, we still only have three waves down off that high so far and are currently sitting at several key Fibonacci support levels that will need to break to the downside to keep that path in play. If we are unable to break those levels and instead turn back higher, then it would open the door to a few different paths that could still ultimately take this market higher.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Trying To Make It More Reliable

As I outlined over the weekend, the potential 1-2 downside structure was not terribly reliable due to the wave 1 being a potential leading diagonal.  And, as I have noted many times before, leading diagonals are not reliable since they resemble corrective structures and often invalidate as leading diagonals.Therefore, we wanted to wait for another 5-wave decline to signal a 1-2, i-ii structure is developing.   With today’s decline, have that potential.  Ideally, I would much prefer a lower low for a better wave i of wave 3, but a corrective bounce at this time could provide us with a nicer set up for this 1-2, i-ii downside set up.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Trying To Keep It Simple

With the move down from this week’s high not counting well as a standard Fibonacci Pinball structure, it leaves us with the potential that the initial move lower was a leading diagonal for wave 1 of the (c) wave.  And, assuming this is the correct count, that makes today’s bounce a wave 2.This is where I add my usual warning about leading diagonals not being strong trading cues, as they can just as easily be a corrective structure.  It is for this reason that I seek confirmation with a clear 5-wave decline for wave i of 3 to make this structure a much higher probability in following through to the downside.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago
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