Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Metals Pushing The Limits Again

If you have experience with the manner in which the metals trade, then you know that they almost always push their limits. And, silver seems to be doing that as I write this update.There is no question that the rally that we have seen since silver struck the wave (4) support/target box has been overlapping and corrective looking.  This has been quite consistent with the expectation that it has been a corrective rally.  And, that is how I currently view it.  The question then is how to count it?First, silver is still retaining its 1-2 downside structure as long as we remain below the (b) wave high.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Structure of the Next Move Down Will Help Tell the Story Into Year-End

This strong move off the lows over the past several days has certainly exceeded my expectations and keeps the path to new highs alive. With that said, we’re now approaching the upper end of the resistance zone for a potential larger top, one that still could take us back under last week’s low, as we only have three waves up off that low.Of course, because we are still likely dealing with an Ending Diagonal on the larger degree structure, even a three-wave start doesn’t eliminate the potential for new highs.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Another One Bites The Dust?

Over the last number of months, the SPX has tested the 6550SPX support region to which I have been pointing multiple times, and we have yet to see a sustained break of that level despite numerous tests of that support. And, with the SPX closing in on the 6770SPX level (technically 6770.35), we are very close to an invalidation of the wave count shown on the 5-minute SPX chart.  So, will yet another downside set up bite the dust after a successful test of 6550SPX support?I cannot answer that one just yet, but it is not looking good for it to hold due to how much we have retraced.  But, until we actually break out to 6770.36, the count remains alive.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Pushing Upper Resistance - Market Analysis for Nov 24th, 2025

With the SPX pushing higher today, we have reached the .764 retracement of what I am counting as an a-wave decline within wave 3 of an ending diagonal.  We are also just below a downtrend line, as you can see on the 5-minute chart.As I outlined the positive divergence on the 60-minute MACD as we were hitting the support box, we are now approaching the resistance box again. If this is indeed a b-wave rally, then we should simply strike that box, and turn down.  That is how technicals work in a corrective bounce, as opposed to hitting the box and consolidating during a bull move.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Testing Support Again - Market Analysis for Nov 20th, 2025

The manner in which the market has been trading of late is more indicative of a top having been struck.   When we broke this week’s pullback low today, it started to increase the probability that a high of sorts is now in place, and that 7000 is going to be put off for now, if not for many years to come.   But, of course, we seek confirmation.Based upon the manner in which the market has been moving back and forth up here, I cannot say there is a clearly defined impulsive 5-wave structure having developed for a c-wave decline here.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Pressure Remains Down - Market Analysis for Nov 19th, 2025

I have to keep this update short as I just got back to my hotel and have to run out for a dinner meeting. While I can count both gold and GDX as a potential i-ii down in the continuation of their respective (c) waves down, silver would really count best with one more rally to complete a deeper wave 2.  But, the main theme remains the same.  As long as the various charts remain corrective below their respective (b) wave highs, I am expecting a (c) wave decline, which will be signaled by a follow through break down below the lows of wave 1.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Market in a Holding Pattern, but Risk Remains Elevated

After moving lower earlier in the week, the market has held several key pivot levels over the past two trading sessions and has since retraced higher on what still appears to be corrective wave action. While we ended last week with a fairly clear five-wave move to the downside, confirming the start of this week’s move, the follow-through so far has not confirmed that we are in the heart of a third wave down. Instead, we continue to hold several key pivots that would need to break to validate that scenario.
by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago

Can Bears Push It Over The 6550SPX Line?

Today, price has spiked below the pivot.  But, the action we are seeing after that spike is more of a "comeback" so far than it is a follow through.  The market had a potential 1-2, i-ii downside set up that has developed, which should mean that a heart of a 3rd wave down should be in progress.  That means that once the market breaks down below the pivot between the .618-764 extensions of waves 1-2, and drops to the 1.00 extension or lower, then the likelihood resides with the 3rd wave down.  However, it must then remain below the pivot on the wave iv of 3 bounce in order to keep pressure down in wave v of 3.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Small Discrepancy Between Futures and Cash Market

Small Discrepancy Between Futures and Cash MarketWhen the futures display a different pattern than the SPX cash market, it does lead to some uncertainty.   And, that is what I am seeing in the difference between the SPX and ES at this time.  Allow me to explain.The overnight action in the ES last night provided us with a higher high, which does make the rally off last week’s low seem more like a 5-wave structure for wave 1 of the c-wave rally in green.  However, the SPX does not have that additional move higher.  It still remains below its resistance of 6774SPX . . for now.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Quick Morning Update - Market Analysis for Nov 14th, 2025

I have been warning that this region is treacherous, and it still is.  There are several ways this can still resolve, but I really do not think an immediate run to higher highs is most likely.  The question will be on how we go lower.As you know, once we broke the micro pivot the other day, I outlined the potential for the market to drop down to the 6550-80SPX region.  And, that is still well within reasonable probabilities.  I have added a path for that in purple on the 15-minute ES chart.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago
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