Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Looking For A Rally

While I did not expect the market to break down below the upper support region on the first try, when it did, it seems to have made a move directly to the next support region I have been highlighting – the 5850SPX region.Thus far, the market has been holding that support.  And, I am viewing this decline as an a-wave.  But, the question now is if it is complete.  The futures have struck the 5850SPX region, but the cash index has not.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Rally In Metals To Come?

After catching the rally into the high we struck last week, I then provided a strong warning to those willing to listen exactly one week ago:“As it stands right now,  both gold and silver are completing a potential a-b-c corrective rally, which if correct, would resolve with a 5-wave decline for wave 1 of their respective c-waves lower.   So, those that do not want to experience another draw down would want to lighten their load at this point.  However, those, like me, who have retained their positioning during this entire rally, can choose to add some cheap protection instead.”Based upon some of your comments, some of you did not heed my warning.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Market Down, But Is it Out?

Today we saw the market grind up slowly into the FMOC announcement only to get rejected and turn down sharply post-announcement. This sharp move lower is suggestive that we have put in at least a local top but the bigger question is whether we have indeed topped in our larger degree fifth wave. We still will need to see how the market reacts as we approach the lower support zone below before we have an answer to that question but this sharp initial move is certainly the initial warning sign that the larger Ending Diagonals that we have been watching across all of the indexes may have indeed topped.
by Mike Golembesky - 4 days ago

Well Over Support - Market Analysis for Dec 17th, 2024

With the market taking the opportunity to provide us with a [c] wave decline today, nothing has really changed in the overall picture.  We are still well over the upper support, and there is nothing outright bearish that I am seeing in the smaller degree structure.   In fact, this seems like a sideways consolidation typical of bull markets before another move higher.Yet, as I have been noting, we still have a very full count to the upside.   So, if I am going to look higher in the coming days, I would like to see more of a set up telling me that this is the market’s intention.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Let’s See How We Pull Back

I have left the wave count as the top is in place simply because the market is quite full in its wave count.  However, there is an argument for this rally off the Friday low now being 5 waves up.   Yet, I cannot say that the bottom made on Friday was a clear 5-waves down to complete a [c] wave.  So, due to the fact that the structure into the recent high is quite full and I have a hard time counting a complete 5-waves into Friday’s low, I am presenting it as a b-wave, with the rally today being a c-wave, completing a [b] wave flat.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Recent High Is Important For Now

With the market backing off the high we struck yesterday, we still remain below the all-time high struck at the end of last week.  So, for now, I can maintain the wave count as shown.  In the SPX, I can count a 5-wave initial decline off yesterday’s high.   So, inline with the count as shown, I am assuming that is wave 1 of the c-wave down.  However, clearly, should we break back out over yesterday’s high before breaking below the low then it opens the door to another extension, which can point us to the 6150-85SPX region.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Still Pushing Higher

Today we saw the market gap higher this morning and continue to push higher with the SPX closing in on the previous all-time highs and the NQ breaking those highs. With this continued push higher we have opened the door for this market to continue to extend higher as we close in on the end of the year. We are still very extended in regard to the larger timeframe charts but until we actually begin to see some confirmation that a larger degree top may be in place there is still certainly room to extend higher. The bigger picture there is really not much to add and the 60min chart remains unchanged from our previous analysis.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Pullback In Progress - Market Analysis for Dec 10th, 2024

Normally, when an ending diagonal completes, the reversal is quite strong and sharp.  We are not seeing that since we struck the high at the end of last week.  Therefore, the initial indication is that we have not struck a major top just yet.But, we may still be seeing a bigger pullback taking shape, such as the alt iv on our charts.  And, depending on how the market takes shape into that support, that may be the next major buying opportunity for those that would like to still play the long-side in this very stretched market.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Trades Flat On The Day

The market opened up just about flat and has not moved very much throughout the day. So with that, there really is still not too much I can add to the previous analysis. As I noted yesterday the micro pattern remains fairly messy with quite a bit of overlapping three wave structure off of the November low and into today's high. This is still suggestive that we are in the final stages of an Ending Diagonal off of that low. With that being said however until we begin to see a strong reversal and a break of support there still is no signal that we have put in a top just yet.
by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago

Metals Complex Remains A Meandering Mess Overall

While I would love to outline a strongly bullish immediate path, alas, the market is not exactly providing that to me across the charts.While GDX has the most immediate bullish set up in my mind, I still do not have a secondary wave [i] in place, with the action seemingly still suggesting that wave ii may not yet be done.  So, as long as yesterday’s high remains in place, we have a set up for a c-wave down to complete wave ii.   But, consider that this would provide us with a strong i-ii upside set up.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago
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