Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Both Sides Are Getting Neutralized

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by Avi Gilburt - 2 days ago

Bounce In Progress - Market Analysis for Sep 2nd, 2026

Thus far, the metals charts are playing out reasonably well. And, with the manner in which we have rallied thus far, it is looking much more like a corrective rally, so the probabilities of the first path I outlined in my last update has dropped (that this correction has completed). Rather, it seems that this is a corrective bounce which will likely lead to another drop.What has not been determined yet is if that next drop will be pointing us to lower lows or not.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

What Is Considered A “Break-Down?”

When we provide analysis, we often discuss that a “break-down” will open the door to a larger decline. And, sometimes we see the market break that cited support, only to come back again. So, I am often asked how can we determine if something is truly broken?The reason I am addressing this now is that we had two perfect examples of how the market supposedly “broke” the cited 7625ES level, but we did not get the waterfall decline. So, I thought this a perfect time to discuss it, especially since the market showed us two ways it “breaks” a level but does not really break that level.The first was seen yesterday after my update was posted.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Are We Really Going Down?

Well, as of the time of my writing this update, the impulsive upside set up for wave (v) in yellow has clearly invalidated and there is a very clear set up that is pointing us down to at least the 7400SPX region for a 3rd wave decline. And, the key point to note is that as long as yesterday’s high (wave ii) is not breached, pressure will remain down in this set up.In the micro structure, we have either completed waves (i)(ii) of wave iii of 3 or we are only completing wave (i) as I write this, and we can still see more of a wave (ii) bounce. But, once the market breaks down below 7625ES (the .
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Three Paths Before Us

As the title noted, we have three paths before us in the metals.The first path is that this correction is nearly completed with the current downside action. GDX has almost reached its .382 retracement region, which is the top of the support box. Gold is approaching its .500 retracement. And, silver is hovering just below its .382 retracement. So, minimum targets have been met. And, if we see a clearly impulsive rally begin, then we will have to begin focusing on the upside again.The second path – which for now is my favored – suggests that this completes the initial leg lower. In both gold and silver that would be an (a) wave.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Bears Are Trying - Market Analysis for Aug 31st, 2026

With the lower low we saw today, the bears are certainly trying their best. You see, this now looks like a really nice 5-wave decline, which would tip the scales towards this being wave i of 3 down in the more bearish (c) wave path.In looking at the bullish side, in order this to retain its wave ii status, it would mean that the SPX had an a-b-c pullback, wherein the c-wave was equal to .618 the size of the a-wave. This is not a common ratio we see within a-b-c structures. It is much more common in a 5-wave structure.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Double Bottoms Cause EW Issues

The problem with double bottoms is that they leave the door open to two reasonable interpretations of the wave count. And, of late, we are dealing with that issue.If you look at the attached 15-minute ES chart, you will see a great example of this type of problem.As you can see, there is a reasonable wave count which provides us with a 5-wave decline off a (b) wave high, which we have labeled as wave 1. Thereafter, we have a bounce, followed by a slightly lower low, which I have noted as a potential a-b structure. This has been followed by a 5-wave diagonal, which can be accounted for as a c-wave in a bigger wave 2 bounce.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

It’s A Pullback, But Not Enough

While we are seeing the metals “pullback,” I cannot say that this is really enough to suggest the bigger pullback we are expecting has begun. Rather, I would want to see all 3 charts break below their .236 retracement levels. That would make me more confident that the bigger pullback is in progress.And, to be honest, while I usually provide you with a great depth of insight in the metals updates, there really is not much more to say. I would strongly urge you to listen to my full-member video this morning as well. But, for now, we have no CLEAR indication that this rally has topped. And, everything that I noted in the weekend update is still very much applicable.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Needs a Defibrillator

Today we saw more very tight sideways action, with the market trading in a very tight range, and clearly we have not made it out of the summer doldrums just yet. There is really very little that I can add to the previous updates as we continue this very slow action into the middle of the week.Ideally, I would still prefer to see a bit of a push higher in at least a larger wave 2, as shown on the ES chart, and for the yellow count to become likely, we would need to see a clear five-wave move to the upside.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Moar Sideways - Market Analysis for Aug 25th, 2026

I am not sure if there is anything I can add at this point, as the market really has not made much of a move since yesterday. So, the general parameters as outlined yesterday still very much apply at this time. And, it seems the market is waiting for a catalyst to ignite its next move.The one additional point I can add is that the MACD on the 60-minute chart has dropped to levels from which prior rallies have begun. So, it does reinforce the yellow being our primary count unless and until support is broken.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago
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