Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

The Market Can Remain Sideways Longer Than You Can Remain Sane

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by Mike Golembesky - 2 days ago

Truncated Bottoms - Market Analysis for Jul 16th, 2026

I would probably state that truncated bottoms in EW structures are not reliable in the same way that I view leading diagonals as being unreliable. But, as of now, there is some potential that this could be seen in the metals complex. And, yes, I have seen this before in metals.But, if you have been reading what I have been saying of late, then you know my preference is to be layering into positions down here. I am personally still leaving dry powder for lower lows, as they complete their patterns more often than not.In gold and silver, we are seeing the potential for those truncated bottoms.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Market Going Nowhere Slowly

Once again, the market traded below the previous high and over support, leaving us in limbo once again. With that, I still have very little to add to the previous analysis and parameters, so once again, I will reiterate what I noted in yesterday's update. There is really very little change to the parameters I laid out yesterday, so I am simply going to reiterate what I noted then.As shown on the ES chart, I have support sitting in the 7548-7485 zone. If we hold that zone and push back over the 7633 level, we are more likely following the yellow count, at which point the initial overhead target would come in at the 7800-7920 zone.
by Mike Golembesky - 3 days ago

Market Leaves Us Hanging for Another Day

After moving lower yesterday, today we saw the market move back higher. However, after what looked like a strong open, it faded back down quite quickly. We have since been grinding higher through the afternoon session; however, the structure of that move higher is very sloppy and not typically what we see when the market is ready to make a sustained break higher. In the end, we are left in a very similar position to where we were yesterday, still trading above support and below the previous high. Until we see a break below support or above those highs, we remain stuck trading between the lines and in a bit of no-man's-land.
by Mike Golembesky - 4 days ago

Market Still Trading Between the Lines

Today the market moved lower, which is keeping both counts in play as we head into the final hour of trading. We are currently sitting just over the 100% extension of the initial move down off the high and the larger support zone below. If we manage to hold over that zone and push back over the 7633 level, then we are likely following the bullish yellow count, whereas a break of support below would give us initial confirmation that we have topped in the white wave (b). For now, we simply have to wait and see what the market decides, which we will likely have an answer to within the next few trading sessions.
by Mike Golembesky - 5 days ago

Market Testing Previous High

Today we saw the market move higher overnight and continue to grind higher throughout the session. We are currently testing the high that was struck on 7/6, which is making the most immediately bearish path less probable at the moment. With that being said, until we see a break of that level, I will keep this path on the board, as the overall action is still very sloppy and the alternate counts I am watching are still far from ideal from an Elliott Wave perspective. If we are going to see an imminent top, this would need to start turning down sooner rather than later and do so in five waves.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Another Bounce Before Final Lows?

With the downside follow through, and GDX seeing a lower low just under 72, there is some potential that this correction could be completing sooner rather than later. But, for now, I still think we go lower and it could take a bit more time to get there as we could conceivably see one more loop higher before lower lows are struck.So, let’s look at GDX first. The first point I want to note is that we came within less than a dollar of the ideal 64-71 target in GDX, as the market struck a low of 71.89 on this decline. Moreover, I want to note the very nice positive divergences we are seeing on the daily MACD as well.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

The Pattern Is Suggestive That There Is Still Some Unfinished Business to the Downside

We saw the market gap lower overnight, only to whipsaw around most of the day. We are currently trading up significantly off of the lows. However, the move up off of the lows is so far only three waves in nature and is still sitting well inside of the retracement zone that could still swing this lower in the coming days. In fact, the pattern to the downside still looks incomplete in nature, which has me leaning toward lower levels still to come in the days ahead before we see any sort of breakout to new highs.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Everyone Hates Diagonals - Market Analysis for Jul 7th, 2026

Today the market opened flat but held under the key resistance zone that I had been watching over the past several days, keeping the wave 2 of the larger wave (c) down topping count in play. We began to move lower in the late morning session, but the move stalled out and developed a three-wave move down off of the highs. So while holding resistance is keeping the wave 2 count in play, the fact that we have a three-wave start is certainly less than ideal for the most immediately bearish path.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Market Closing In on Upper Resistance

Today the market continued its grind higher on what remains sloppy action as we approach the upper end of the resistance zone, still keeping the potential wave 2 alive. If we continue to push higher and break resistance, it will make it more likely that we are following the yellow count over the 7646 level before seeing even a local top.Overall, there really is not much change to the counts as they have been laid out over the past several days. With today's push back over last week's high, we have invalidated the potential 1-2 i-ii setup to the downside and are now closing in on the larger upper resistance zone at the 7614 level for the larger wave 2.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago
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