Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Market At Next Inflection Point After Finally Breaking Down

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by Mike Golembesky - 1 day ago

Is A Lower Low Out Of The Question Now?

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by Avi Gilburt - 2 days ago

Market Still Keeping Us Waiting

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by Mike Golembesky - 2 days ago

Market Taking the Long Road Down?

Today, the market turned higher after testing last week's lows at yesterday's close, following the purple path that I laid out in yesterday's update. We are currently still trading under the resistance zone for that path on what remains corrective wave action off last week's low. So, as long as we continue to hold under that resistance zone, my base case will remain that we see this resolve lower to fill out a larger ABC pattern off the highs.If the market is able to break through resistance and move back over last week's high, it would open the door for a more immediately bullish resolution.
by Mike Golembesky - 3 days ago

Market at Key Inflection Point, but Pressure Remains Down

After moving higher overnight and into the morning session, the market turned lower, and we are now testing last week's low. That low represents a fairly significant inflection point, and if we see a break of that level, it would suggest that we have begun the next leg down of this move. If we manage to hold that low and turn back higher on five waves, then we may still need to push back over today's high before turning down once again. I will note that even under that scenario, since the move up off last week's low was clearly corrective, the pressure will still remain to the downside as long as we remain under the larger-degree resistance zone overhead.
by Mike Golembesky - 4 days ago

The Market Can Remain Sideways Longer Than You Can Remain Sane

Overnight, we tested the high that was struck on 7/10, only to be followed by a sloppy move lower. We are still over the key support zone I have been laying out over the past several days, and yet under key overhead resistance. So with that, the market continues to move sideways on what is still very sloppy and unreliable action, leaving us yet again in the same spot from an analysis perspective and with the parameters still unchanged. As shown on the ES chart, I still have support sitting in the 7548-7485 zone.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Truncated Bottoms - Market Analysis for Jul 16th, 2026

I would probably state that truncated bottoms in EW structures are not reliable in the same way that I view leading diagonals as being unreliable. But, as of now, there is some potential that this could be seen in the metals complex. And, yes, I have seen this before in metals.But, if you have been reading what I have been saying of late, then you know my preference is to be layering into positions down here. I am personally still leaving dry powder for lower lows, as they complete their patterns more often than not.In gold and silver, we are seeing the potential for those truncated bottoms.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Going Nowhere Slowly

Once again, the market traded below the previous high and over support, leaving us in limbo once again. With that, I still have very little to add to the previous analysis and parameters, so once again, I will reiterate what I noted in yesterday's update. There is really very little change to the parameters I laid out yesterday, so I am simply going to reiterate what I noted then.As shown on the ES chart, I have support sitting in the 7548-7485 zone. If we hold that zone and push back over the 7633 level, we are more likely following the yellow count, at which point the initial overhead target would come in at the 7800-7920 zone.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Market Leaves Us Hanging for Another Day

After moving lower yesterday, today we saw the market move back higher. However, after what looked like a strong open, it faded back down quite quickly. We have since been grinding higher through the afternoon session; however, the structure of that move higher is very sloppy and not typically what we see when the market is ready to make a sustained break higher. In the end, we are left in a very similar position to where we were yesterday, still trading above support and below the previous high. Until we see a break below support or above those highs, we remain stuck trading between the lines and in a bit of no-man's-land.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Market Still Trading Between the Lines

Today the market moved lower, which is keeping both counts in play as we head into the final hour of trading. We are currently sitting just over the 100% extension of the initial move down off the high and the larger support zone below. If we manage to hold over that zone and push back over the 7633 level, then we are likely following the bullish yellow count, whereas a break of support below would give us initial confirmation that we have topped in the white wave (b). For now, we simply have to wait and see what the market decides, which we will likely have an answer to within the next few trading sessions.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago
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