Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Staying Objective - Market Analysis for Jan 8th, 2026

I warned yesterday that, even though the market has extended beyond reason and well beyond any norms, we still must stay objective and not assume we will immediately head into a bearish environment until support breaks.  So, along those lines, I am trying to identify a long set up while we are still over support.I am including an ES chart in this update because you cannot see this potential set up in the SPX.  As you can see from the attached 15 minute chart, there is potential for a leading diagonal for wave (i) of iii pointing us ultimately towards the 7150-7175SPX region if it triggers.  But, we do not even have the set up in place yet.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Has the Market Put in a Local Top?

After several days of upside follow-through, we finally saw the market stall and push modestly lower this afternoon. That raises the immediate question: have we put in a local top, and if so, what does that mean for the bigger picture as we move further into the new year?As I’ve been discussing in the room, the first level I’m watching is 6974 on the ES. A sustained break below that level would be our early indication that a local top may be in place. Should that occur, we still have more meaningful support just beneath, coming in at the 6953–6899 zone.
by Mike Golembesky - 5 days ago

The Messy Metals March Higher

While we caught a nice low a little over a week ago, the rally off that low was quite promising as a standard structure . . . until today.  But, as I was noting yesterday in my updates and in the trading room, something seemed “off” about the structure.  Now, the best I can get is an ending diagonal for wave 5.So, let’s look at the charts and see where we stand, as it is not simple, especially when we look at gold.In silver, the alternative we were tracking thus far was presented in yellow, and would provide a c-wave decline to complete a larger wave 4 structure.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Approaching Target - Market Analysis for Jan 6th, 2026

With the market holding support in wave v, today’s rally is attempting to make a push towards the target overhead.  However, the structure of this last segment higher has turned overlapping, so it can represent several potentials in the micro count.The least bullish is that we are topping as I write this update, as the futures could argue for this wave v to be an ending diagonal.  The more bullish scenario is that we have a (i)(ii) set up in this wave v, which can project us up towards the 6980SPX region.  So, let’s talk about support.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Market Trying For Another 5 Waves

With the market providing us with the potential i-ii on Friday, which I highlighted over the weekend, we are now trying to complete a 5-wave rally back towards the highs.  But, of course, there is still the potential red alternative count which can take the market down in a big way. For now, the bulls have the ball.There is an additional bigger picture point I would like to make at this time.  We really cannot entertain any bearish count as a high probability until we AT LEAST break down below Friday’s low.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Still Looking Up . . . BUT

With the market following through early in the week to the upside and not seemingly likely to break down in a major (c) wave decline YET, I just wanted to add one more potential path to the mix, as we like to try to stay at least one step ahead of the market.With the market invalidating the red alternative count as shown over the weekend in GDX, and almost invalidating it in silver, I have to put another alternative path before you.   That is represented by the yellow larger (a)(b)(c) shown in GDX and silver right now.  This is clearly not as bearish as the prior alternative count.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Just Be Aware - Market Analysis for Jan 2nd, 2026

This is not going to be a long update, but I do have to outline what you need to look for to become much more protective in the metals complex.As I have noted many times, if we get 5 waves down off the high in gold, it will put us on watch for a potential 1-2 down pointing us towards a (c) wave decline to the 3800 region.  And, with the 1-2 potential in place now in yellow, the action from the rally high this morning is a potential 5-waves down also.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

In the Support Zone, but No Confirmation of a Bottom Just Yet

Today we moved lower, deeper into the support zone for the potential wave 4, but we still do not have a five-wave structure off that low to confirm that a bottom is in place just yet. The move down off the high is, so far, corrective in nature, which is supportive of this being a wave 4. However, until we see a full five waves up off the low and a break of at least the 6,950 level, this can still push a bit lower before finding a bottom.If we break below support, which I now have at the 6,912–6,889 zone, it would open the door for a larger top to be in place.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Long Set Up Developing

With the market finally providing to us a sizeable pullback, we are now at the support region for both gold and silver.  So, let’s start with silver.As we can see on the 144-minute chart, price has come down to the top of the support box, and the MACD has now dropped down to the oversold region from which prior rallies have begun.   So, this is a general buying signal.   The only question is whether the low for this c-wave of wave 4 is in place yet.  But, with the decline yesterday really only counting best as a 3-wave drop, I cannot say with a high degree of confidence that it has completed.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Looks Like A Triangle

With the sideways action today, it does look like the market is trying to trace out a triangle.  While we most commonly see triangles in b-wave and 4th wave positions, it seems a bit big to be a 4th wave in the c-wave of wave 4.  So, by process of elimination, I think it may be a b-wave triangle, with a c-wave decline to the support likely our next step.So, to keep this simple, as long a we remain below 6913SPX, then I can look for a c-wave decline, which seems to be pointing towards the lower end of the support box.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago
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