Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Bounce In Progress - Market Analysis for Sep 2nd, 2026

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by Avi Gilburt - 13 hours ago

What Is Considered A “Break-Down?”

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by Avi Gilburt - 13 hours ago

Are We Really Going Down?

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by Avi Gilburt - 1 day ago

Three Paths Before Us

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by Avi Gilburt - 1 day ago

Bears Are Trying - Market Analysis for Aug 31st, 2026

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by Avi Gilburt - 2 days ago

Double Bottoms Cause EW Issues

The problem with double bottoms is that they leave the door open to two reasonable interpretations of the wave count. And, of late, we are dealing with that issue.If you look at the attached 15-minute ES chart, you will see a great example of this type of problem.As you can see, there is a reasonable wave count which provides us with a 5-wave decline off a (b) wave high, which we have labeled as wave 1. Thereafter, we have a bounce, followed by a slightly lower low, which I have noted as a potential a-b structure. This has been followed by a 5-wave diagonal, which can be accounted for as a c-wave in a bigger wave 2 bounce.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

It’s A Pullback, But Not Enough

While we are seeing the metals “pullback,” I cannot say that this is really enough to suggest the bigger pullback we are expecting has begun. Rather, I would want to see all 3 charts break below their .236 retracement levels. That would make me more confident that the bigger pullback is in progress.And, to be honest, while I usually provide you with a great depth of insight in the metals updates, there really is not much more to say. I would strongly urge you to listen to my full-member video this morning as well. But, for now, we have no CLEAR indication that this rally has topped. And, everything that I noted in the weekend update is still very much applicable.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Needs a Defibrillator

Today we saw more very tight sideways action, with the market trading in a very tight range, and clearly we have not made it out of the summer doldrums just yet. There is really very little that I can add to the previous updates as we continue this very slow action into the middle of the week.Ideally, I would still prefer to see a bit of a push higher in at least a larger wave 2, as shown on the ES chart, and for the yellow count to become likely, we would need to see a clear five-wave move to the upside.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Moar Sideways - Market Analysis for Aug 25th, 2026

I am not sure if there is anything I can add at this point, as the market really has not made much of a move since yesterday. So, the general parameters as outlined yesterday still very much apply at this time. And, it seems the market is waiting for a catalyst to ignite its next move.The one additional point I can add is that the MACD on the 60-minute chart has dropped to levels from which prior rallies have begun. So, it does reinforce the yellow being our primary count unless and until support is broken.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Playing Around Over Support

I can’t say much has really changed with today’s action. The market made a slightly lower low but still held over support. And, as long as we hold over support, the yellow count is still quite alive and well.But, in order to make the yellow count a much higher probability, we will still need to see a 5-wave rally back towards the highs for wave i of (v). Until that happens, this can still become quite precarious and see a break-down of support.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago
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