Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Moving The Pivot Up

With the market seemingly completing the wave iv of wave 3 in the bullish count with a pullback this morning to the 1.00 extension of waves 1-2, the market seems to be rallying in wave v of 3.  The typical target for that wave degree is the 1.618 extension of waves 1-2, which is the 6915SPX region.However, with wave iv of 3 only pulling back to the 1.00 extension, it does open the door that we can see an extension in wave v of 3.  But, even if we do, I am still not seeing much to suggest we will see an appreciable push through the 6950SPX region.  But, we will see how extended wave v of 3 becomes before we make any final determinations regarding wave 5.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Holding The Pivot - Market Analysis for Dec 22nd, 2025

We expected that the market will likely make a decision as to whether it wants to head directly to higher highs early this week.  And, the gap up today has now made the pivot on the 5-minute SPX chart our primary focus.   Remember, when the market rallies to the 1.236 extension of waves 1-2, then it is likely that we will hold the .764 extension as support for wave iv if we are in wave 3.  And, that is where I believe we are right now within the bullish count.  That now means that, if the market has intentions of new highs over the coming week or two, then we will not break back down below the pivot.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Bullish Set Up In Place

While I cannot guarantee how the market is going to move, I can outline potential set ups which present a good risk/reward type of structure.  And, I am seeing one now in SPX.With the market bottoming around the .500 retracement and the original target we had for this last decline, we have rallied in what counts relatively well as a 5-wave structure off the low.  I would then view that as wave 1 of the (c) wave.  Thereafter, we had a sharp pullback, which is a bit clouded in its structure, but which I am assuming is a wave 2.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Sees Continuation Lower, but Price Action Remains Sloppy

Today we saw the market continue to work lower, putting Santa’s Rally on hold for now. The price action to the downside remains quite sloppy and increasingly overlapping, which suggests this decline may be unfolding as an ending diagonal, potentially forming the second leg of what is still a corrective move lower. The key question is whether this correction can complete in time for Santa to arrive and push the market higher ahead of the holiday next week.As shown on the ES chart, I am having difficulty identifying a full and complete pattern into today’s low. This suggests we may still have some unfinished business to the downside before seeing any meaningful push higher.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Silver Will Never Come Down Again

The way the silver rally has extended, it sure feels like it will never come down again, especially as many are now suggesting targets of $200 in the near term for silver.  But, needless to say, the wave structure is rather full – and then some – for this segment of the rally.  And, I still am expecting one more pullback before the final phase of this rally likely takes hold.  Yet, for now, after cashing in some of my shorter dated aggressive long positions, I am still holding my final aggressive longer-dated positions (all bought near the October lows, as announced in the trading room) and will simply add to them on the next pullback.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Just More Overlap - Market Analysis for Dec 16th, 2025

As I posted earlier this morning, while the overnight session initially followed through on the downside set up, the rally off the overnight low provided overlap which made the downside set up much less likely as a standard impulsive (c) wave.  And, when the SPX opened and spiked the 6800SPX level, only to spike back over it again, it was a warning that the cash index was likely to do the same.Based upon the preceding points, I cannot say as confidently that this will continue in a direct fashion down to the 6700SPX region and the .500 retracement region.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Setting Up To Test The Support Box Below

With the market spiking higher this morning into the open, we seem to have completed a (b) wave consolidation structure.   You can see this labeled on the attached 5-minute SPX chart. This now suggests that the market is setting up a (c) wave decline to test the support box below.Assuming waves i-ii are already in place, then this structure is projecting towards the .500 retracement region.  Of course, we will need to next see a break down below the 6800 region, which is the low struck on Friday, before we break over today’s high in order to make this our likely path and target.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Overnight Action Has Delayed Santa

While the market had a “reasonable” ending diagonal potential to take us to new higher and complete a (c) wave, the night monkeys put one of their wrenches into the works and screwed that up.  I mean, it’s not like a diagonal is such a reliable structure to begin with.  But, it now leaves us in a no-man’s land within the market highs and the 6810SPX support.  And, thus far, that support still seems to be holding.   Yet, this overlapping action we have seen for all of December can be counted in a number of ways. In fact, we can even call the bottom of a more complex (b) wave, and another diagonal starting off that low.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Is This The Final Move?

For those that remember early this year, I was strongly urging that we prepare for what will likely be a parabolic run and catch up move in silver.  In fact, I attached the “conservative” chart path I laid out in the spring.  I even noted at the time that I would not be surprised if the final 5th wave higher would provide us with many $2+ days of rally.  And, that is what we are seeing of late.So, of course, this is begging the question “is this the final move higher?”I am still struggling with that answer, as I still think silver has a bigger pullback coming.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Still Over 6810SPX - Market Analysis for Dec 10th, 2025

The market has been unable to break below the triangle consolidation, which has left the upside open.   And, this afternoon, we have broken any immediate set up for a drop to take us to the bigger (b) wave support box below.That now means that as long as we remain over 6810SPX, we have to continue to look higher to the target box overhead.While I would love to give you a clear micro count to work with, the overlap seen since the triangle structure does not allow me to do so.  So, it only leaves me with looking higher for as long as we remain over 6810SPX.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago
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