Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Is The “Bounce” Completing

With the up-down action we have seen over the last two days, the market seems to have completed its [a] wave, and may even be close to completing its [b] wave as well.The only reservation that I have is how shallow this [b] wave would be, as we are only approaching the .382 retracement of the [a] wave decline.I do not have to make the analysis complex at this point, so I am going to keep this update short. Should we see an impulsive 5-wave decline begin from this resistance box, then we have begin to assume that the [c] wave down has begun.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Has The “Bounce” Begun?

As I said last week, I think it is reasonable to expect a bounce this week. But, when I look closely at the structure of the decline we saw last week, it leaves a question open as to whether the [a] wave has completed.You see, this bounce could be a wave iv in the [c] wave of the a-wave, and I have labeled that as “iv?” on the chart. But, it could equally be the a-wave of the [b] wave bounce. The reason I question the a-wave classification a bit is because the a-wave of a corrective bounce usually reaches the .382 retracement region of the prior decline. And, as we can see, we did come up short.

by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Bears Have Oppportunity - Market Analysis for Nov 15th, 2024

With the drop below our pivot, the market may begin to suggest a top could be in place. Remember, if the market is presenting us with a standard Fibonacci Pinball pattern, should we see a sustained break down below the .618 extension within that structure it usually is an early tell that the standard Fib Pinball pattern will not follow through as standards suggest.Today we have dropped below that support. Moreover, from a technical basis, we also broke into wave [1] territory, so the structure that I was tracking has officially invalidated. So, I will no longer be presenting that pattern on the 5-minute chart, as it has technically invalidated per the count I have been presenting.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Minimum Waves In Place For [4]

With today’s decline, we now have the minimum number of waves in place for the c-wave and completion of wave [4]. The only problem is that the c-wave is likely an ending diagonal, which does not provide a lot of confidence that it has indeed completed.What we are now seeking is the signal that it has completed. That would mean we are looking for a 5-wave rally back towards the region from which this diagonal began. So, any 5-wave structure that takes us back north of 6000SPX would likely be our initial indication that wave [5] has begun.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Filling Out The Pattern

We have seen the market consolidate over the past several days after the sharp spike up post-election. With that being said we are still following a fairly clean fib pinball pattern and are trading over support for the potential smaller degree fourth wave. So with that, the pattern and analysis is fairly straightforward at the moment and as long as we remain over-support the near-term pressure will remain up. Today we saw the market open slightly lower only to push higher into the afternoon session. We are still currently holding the previous high that was struck on Monday and only have three waves up off of that low so far.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

We Are Getting Full To Downside

With this downside action impressively steep, we should finally be approaching the end of this corrective decline. But, overall, there is not much for me to add to the prior update from Monday.As I outlined in my last updates, GLD is now just about at it’s a=c region, so my expectation is that we should see an upside reaction very soon. Silver looks like it still can get one more lower low to the 29.50-30 region. But, should move beyond the micro wave 4 high in the 31.30 region, then I have to assume wave i is in progress, assuming the move up is impulsive.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

How Deep Will This Pullback Be?

Well, the answer to that question is really based upon the wave degree that the pullback represents. As I outlined yesterday, as long as the market holds the 5965-80SPX support region, this pullback could still be a wave [iv] of wave v of [3]. That means that the market may still be stretching to the 6020-26SPX region to complete wave [3]. However, a sustained break of 5965 makes it likely we are in the higher degree wave [4] pullback with an ideal target/support presented by the pivot box. The top of the box represents the .236 retracement of wave [3], which is generally the minimum expectation for a standard wave [4], with the lower end of the box representing the .

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Time For A Pullback?

While we still came up a bit shy of the ideal target for wave [3], the pattern for v of [3] is relatively full. As I mentioned in the weekend update, we can still see one more push higher early this week to complete it, but the reasonable expectation remains that the larger move is likely going to be down before we continue higher.So, I am going to keep this simple. As long as we remain over 5965-80SPX, this may still be counted as a 4th wave within wave v of [3], and the market may still be attempting to stretch to the 6020-6026SPX region.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Metals May Be Done Sooner Rather Than Later

While my initial expectation was to see a b-wave rally in the metals complex before this correction completed, the fact that we continued to the downside today has opened the door to this correction potentially completing this week. First, the issues I was having with a potential 5-wave rally at the end of last week has now clearly been settled, as it seems to have been corrective, which is evidenced by this continued move lower.Second, the MACD on silver is now presenting a very nice positive divergence, whereas the MACD on the daily GLD and GDX charts are now reaching the support region and have clearly reset.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Still Grinding Higher

Yesterday we saw the market gap higher and then continue to push higher into the EOD. Today we saw the market give us a very small consolidation followed by another grind higher towards the micro third wave target zone. So with that there really is not too much to add to the analysis and parameters that were laid out yesterday. So while I would expect to see some consolidation/pullback in this region as long as we remain over support the pattern still looks incomplete with this continued push higher so the near-term pressure will remain up.

by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago

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