Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Just More Overlap - Market Analysis for Dec 16th, 2025

As I posted earlier this morning, while the overnight session initially followed through on the downside set up, the rally off the overnight low provided overlap which made the downside set up much less likely as a standard impulsive (c) wave.  And, when the SPX opened and spiked the 6800SPX level, only to spike back over it again, it was a warning that the cash index was likely to do the same.Based upon the preceding points, I cannot say as confidently that this will continue in a direct fashion down to the 6700SPX region and the .500 retracement region.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Setting Up To Test The Support Box Below

With the market spiking higher this morning into the open, we seem to have completed a (b) wave consolidation structure.   You can see this labeled on the attached 5-minute SPX chart. This now suggests that the market is setting up a (c) wave decline to test the support box below.Assuming waves i-ii are already in place, then this structure is projecting towards the .500 retracement region.  Of course, we will need to next see a break down below the 6800 region, which is the low struck on Friday, before we break over today’s high in order to make this our likely path and target.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Overnight Action Has Delayed Santa

While the market had a “reasonable” ending diagonal potential to take us to new higher and complete a (c) wave, the night monkeys put one of their wrenches into the works and screwed that up.  I mean, it’s not like a diagonal is such a reliable structure to begin with.  But, it now leaves us in a no-man’s land within the market highs and the 6810SPX support.  And, thus far, that support still seems to be holding.   Yet, this overlapping action we have seen for all of December can be counted in a number of ways. In fact, we can even call the bottom of a more complex (b) wave, and another diagonal starting off that low.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Is This The Final Move?

For those that remember early this year, I was strongly urging that we prepare for what will likely be a parabolic run and catch up move in silver.  In fact, I attached the “conservative” chart path I laid out in the spring.  I even noted at the time that I would not be surprised if the final 5th wave higher would provide us with many $2+ days of rally.  And, that is what we are seeing of late.So, of course, this is begging the question “is this the final move higher?”I am still struggling with that answer, as I still think silver has a bigger pullback coming.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Still Over 6810SPX - Market Analysis for Dec 10th, 2025

The market has been unable to break below the triangle consolidation, which has left the upside open.   And, this afternoon, we have broken any immediate set up for a drop to take us to the bigger (b) wave support box below.That now means that as long as we remain over 6810SPX, we have to continue to look higher to the target box overhead.While I would love to give you a clear micro count to work with, the overlap seen since the triangle structure does not allow me to do so.  So, it only leaves me with looking higher for as long as we remain over 6810SPX.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Just More Sideways Action

Unfortunately, there really is not much for me to add to the recent analysis on SPX, as the market is simply grinding sideways in a corrective manner.  What I will say is that the decline we experienced from Friday's high seems to best count as a 3-wave decline.  That means the yellow b-wave seems to be the least likely of the paths right now.  And, as long as we remain over 6810SPX, the bulls remain in control.But, if there is a path to take us lower, it would suggest that we are in an a-b-c structure pointing down to the support box below.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Silver’s Time To Shine

While silver is pushing into the minimum expected target region we set a while ago, I cannot say that this changes much in the analysis.  I am still uncertain as to which of the paths silver is going to take higher, as this is just a 5th wave in all the potential paths I have posted.   And, yes, I still expect a pullback.   But, as the analysis presented over the last week noted, I am still not sure how deep that pullback will be.   And, based upon the depth of the pullback, we will have a much better idea as to how high silver can travel in its larger 5th wave.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

As The Market Meanders

When I was a young child, I remember my grandmother watching a soap opera called “As The World Turns.”    Well, we seem to be stuck in another similar type of soap opera in the market, which I am now entitling “As The Market Meanders.”We have been stuck moving back and forth in this region now for over 3 months.  And, while we are still very stretched to the upside, the market has yet to provide us any evidence that a top of any larger degree has indeed been struck.  The 6550SPX support region has held on many tests.  But, now we are meandering in a smaller range.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Grinding Higher as We Hold Over Micro Support

The market has continued to grind its way higher over the past several sessions following the stronger ramp we saw during Thanksgiving week. With this continued, steady push to the upside, we’ve now opened the door to the potential that an ending pattern is developing off the 11/30 low. I’ll note that it’s not the cleanest ED structure, so I don’t have a high degree of confidence in that specific pattern. From a practical standpoint, however, it doesn’t make much difference at the moment. In either case, I’m counting this advance into the overnight high as part of a wave 5 of C, as labeled on the charts.
by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago

Going To Need More Information

Unfortunately, where the metals currently reside, we will need more information based upon the upcoming wave action over the coming weeks before we can make any determinations.   Moreover, the structures have turned quite complex, but I am going to attempt to simplify the analysis.  And, I hope I am successful.Let’s start with gold.   The structure of the rally off the end of October low is clearly a 3-wave structure.  And, as long as the resistance box on the 60-minute chart is respected, then we are well within a text-book a-b-c structure for the yellow (b) wave.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago
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