Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Last Chance To Hold As Market Tests The Lower End Of Support

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by Mike Golembesky - 1 day ago

Market Held Support Overnight, But Move

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by Mike Golembesky - 2 days ago

Metals Are Doing Everything Right . . And Then Some

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by Avi Gilburt - 2 days ago

Small Change Of Plans

Needless to say, the high we struck last week leaves a lot to be desired as a completed wave v, which I mentioned yesterday. But, we have to take what the market gives us, and I now have to view wave (iii) as complete with that less than a desirable structure, as well as coming up a bit short of the ideal 1.618 extension. But, this is now how I am forced to count it.Yes, there are other interpretations as well, but I think this is the cleanest of the choices.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Getting A Bit Too Big

While I have been calling this pullback a wave (4) within wave v of (iii) (or c of (b) in the alternative count), the current pullback is getting to be a bit big for this wave (4). Yet, please recognize that it does not invalidate as a wave (4) until we break below the low of wave (2). So, for now, I am still leaving my count as this being a wave (4).But, that means we are going to need to see a rally begin rather soon or this runs the risk of invalidation. And, in truth, I cannot say that there is a better count, as the count as shown makes the most sense from multiple perspectives.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Interesting Potential - Market Analysis for Aug 17th, 2026

IF you remember, before we even caught a bottom in metals, I told you that I was going to be open to the market providing us with a 5-wave rally off the lows.  And, if we do see that in gold and silver, then the probabilities would increase that we could rally to new highs across the board.  I said this MANY MANY times.Well, there is potential for us to get 5 waves up in gold.  Silver has a similar potential but I am not as confident in the wave 1 in that instance as it does not count as well as a 5-wave structure.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Losing Steam - Market Analysis for Aug 13th, 2026

While the market finally began the rally we wanted to see to the next target overhead, the manner in which we seem to have rallied is leaving a bit to be desired from a structure standpoint.As a purist, I would view the rally today as completing the 3rd wave within wave (3) of v of (iii). That means we need one more rally to complete just wave (3) of v of (iii).  But, something looks off about the structure.So, for now, I am going to remain a purist and expect another rally to complete wave (3).
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Metals Got A Rest – But, No Downside Yet

We came into this week with the metals getting a rest with sideways action, but no downside has yet been seen. And, this was followed by another extension today. And, yes, there can still be one more small move higher before this wave completes, but it is still quite extended. Moreover, I still think it is quite reasonable to expect some downside in the coming week.What is interesting is that the more this extends in just this move alone, the greater the probabilities swing towards the bottom being in place already. What is also interesting is that gold and GDX have taken out their initial resistances, whereas silver still has not.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Sloppy Action But Market Still Holding Over Support

Today the market opened higher but retraced lower shortly after the open. We have since recovered some of that drop but are still holding over yesterday's low and, more importantly, over the larger-degree support zone, keeping the impulsive move up off of the July lows very much intact. This slow and sloppy action is starting to look like we may be forming an Ending Diagonal up off of the 8/6 low, but we still need to break out over the 8/10 high to further confirm that this is indeed the case.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Still Set Up For Upside

Not much has really changed since my last update. The only thing that I can add is that we seem to be filling out a c-wave within wave (2) on the 5-minute SPX chart. And, to remind you, as long as we remain over the 7700SPX region, this (1)(2) is set up to rally to the target box overhead in wave v of (iii).Alternatively, a break of 7698SPX would suggest that wave iv in yellow was not yet complete. But, since the decline from yesterday’s high is looking rather corrective, and a break down below 7698SPX would normally be seen as an impulsive c-wave decline, I have to view this as the lesser probability path for now.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago
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