Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

No Breakout for the Bulls Just Yet

Today the market pushed higher and tested the overhead pivot, which, if broken, would have provided a signal that the market was ready to move higher in the weeks ahead. However, as we moved into the close, the market began to break undera key micro support level. If we see a sustained break of this support level then it increases the likelihood that today’s advance was simply a wave b within a larger move to the downside.While further confirmation is still required with a full five-wave decline off the highs and a sustained break of support, the initial poke under micro support is the first indication that we are unlikely to see immediate upside follow-through.
by Mike Golembesky - 4 days ago

Short Update - Market Analysis for Jan 15th, 2026

I am putting out a short update since I am absolutely exhausted from my travel to Israel today.In gold, we now have enough waves to consider this rally as having topped.  Yet, we have not seen the usual hallmark of an ending diagonal completion, wherein it spikes through the trend channel followed by a stronger reversal back into it to start its decline.  So, until we actually see a sustained break down below 4545, I still have to leave that door open.Silver has more than enough waves in place as well.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Market Is Down, but Not Quite Out

Today’s decline has opened the door to the possibility that a larger top may finally be taking shape. That said, the market is still holding above a key support level, which keeps the more immediately bullish count intact for now. As long as this support holds, my base case remains that the market will resolve higher before we see a more significant top develop. However, a decisive break below support would increase the odds that a larger-degree top is indeed in place.As shown on the ES chart, current support resides in the 6951–6906 zone. I continue to view this as a critical area for maintaining the immediately bullish count, shown in blue on the charts.
by Mike Golembesky - 5 days ago

Coloring Between The Lines

With the market just meandering between resistance and support, there really is not a lot I can add to the analysis right now.  Support remains at 6900SPX, and resistance is clearly the pivot. My primary is looking higher for now, especially as long as we holding over 6900SPX support.  The next target is delineated by the target box for wave iii in the 7100-7127SPX region.  Should we reach that target, support will be raised to the 7010-7040SPX region.And, of course, if the market breaks 6900SPX support, a follow through below 6824SPX would make it likely that a larger degree top has been struck, with confirmation coming on a break down below 6720SPX.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Not Much More To Add

Today’s action really has not moved the needle much in terms of the analysis.  The only real addition that I can make is to tighten the support up a bit.  With the drop today, I will now use today’s low as the smaller degree support.  So, as long as the market remains over the low struck in the overnight ES session, we can be looking higher over the coming week or two.Of course, should the market break down below the overnight session low, and follow through below 6900SPX, that would give us a much higher probability in the purple count noted on the 5-minute SPX chart.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Staying Objective - Market Analysis for Jan 8th, 2026

I warned yesterday that, even though the market has extended beyond reason and well beyond any norms, we still must stay objective and not assume we will immediately head into a bearish environment until support breaks.  So, along those lines, I am trying to identify a long set up while we are still over support.I am including an ES chart in this update because you cannot see this potential set up in the SPX.  As you can see from the attached 15 minute chart, there is potential for a leading diagonal for wave (i) of iii pointing us ultimately towards the 7150-7175SPX region if it triggers.  But, we do not even have the set up in place yet.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Has the Market Put in a Local Top?

After several days of upside follow-through, we finally saw the market stall and push modestly lower this afternoon. That raises the immediate question: have we put in a local top, and if so, what does that mean for the bigger picture as we move further into the new year?As I’ve been discussing in the room, the first level I’m watching is 6974 on the ES. A sustained break below that level would be our early indication that a local top may be in place. Should that occur, we still have more meaningful support just beneath, coming in at the 6953–6899 zone.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

The Messy Metals March Higher

While we caught a nice low a little over a week ago, the rally off that low was quite promising as a standard structure . . . until today.  But, as I was noting yesterday in my updates and in the trading room, something seemed “off” about the structure.  Now, the best I can get is an ending diagonal for wave 5.So, let’s look at the charts and see where we stand, as it is not simple, especially when we look at gold.In silver, the alternative we were tracking thus far was presented in yellow, and would provide a c-wave decline to complete a larger wave 4 structure.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Approaching Target - Market Analysis for Jan 6th, 2026

With the market holding support in wave v, today’s rally is attempting to make a push towards the target overhead.  However, the structure of this last segment higher has turned overlapping, so it can represent several potentials in the micro count.The least bullish is that we are topping as I write this update, as the futures could argue for this wave v to be an ending diagonal.  The more bullish scenario is that we have a (i)(ii) set up in this wave v, which can project us up towards the 6980SPX region.  So, let’s talk about support.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Trying For Another 5 Waves

With the market providing us with the potential i-ii on Friday, which I highlighted over the weekend, we are now trying to complete a 5-wave rally back towards the highs.  But, of course, there is still the potential red alternative count which can take the market down in a big way. For now, the bulls have the ball.There is an additional bigger picture point I would like to make at this time.  We really cannot entertain any bearish count as a high probability until we AT LEAST break down below Friday’s low.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago
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