Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Double Bottoms Cause EW Issues

The problem with double bottoms is that they leave the door open to two reasonable interpretations of the wave count. And, of late, we are dealing with that issue.If you look at the attached 15-minute ES chart, you will see a great example of this type of problem.As you can see, there is a reasonable wave count which provides us with a 5-wave decline off a (b) wave high, which we have labeled as wave 1. Thereafter, we have a bounce, followed by a slightly lower low, which I have noted as a potential a-b structure. This has been followed by a 5-wave diagonal, which can be accounted for as a c-wave in a bigger wave 2 bounce.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

It’s A Pullback, But Not Enough

While we are seeing the metals “pullback,” I cannot say that this is really enough to suggest the bigger pullback we are expecting has begun. Rather, I would want to see all 3 charts break below their .236 retracement levels. That would make me more confident that the bigger pullback is in progress.And, to be honest, while I usually provide you with a great depth of insight in the metals updates, there really is not much more to say. I would strongly urge you to listen to my full-member video this morning as well. But, for now, we have no CLEAR indication that this rally has topped. And, everything that I noted in the weekend update is still very much applicable.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Market Needs a Defibrillator

Today we saw more very tight sideways action, with the market trading in a very tight range, and clearly we have not made it out of the summer doldrums just yet. There is really very little that I can add to the previous updates as we continue this very slow action into the middle of the week.Ideally, I would still prefer to see a bit of a push higher in at least a larger wave 2, as shown on the ES chart, and for the yellow count to become likely, we would need to see a clear five-wave move to the upside.
by Mike Golembesky - 4 days ago

Moar Sideways - Market Analysis for Aug 25th, 2026

I am not sure if there is anything I can add at this point, as the market really has not made much of a move since yesterday. So, the general parameters as outlined yesterday still very much apply at this time. And, it seems the market is waiting for a catalyst to ignite its next move.The one additional point I can add is that the MACD on the 60-minute chart has dropped to levels from which prior rallies have begun. So, it does reinforce the yellow being our primary count unless and until support is broken.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Playing Around Over Support

I can’t say much has really changed with today’s action. The market made a slightly lower low but still held over support. And, as long as we hold over support, the yellow count is still quite alive and well.But, in order to make the yellow count a much higher probability, we will still need to see a 5-wave rally back towards the highs for wave i of (v). Until that happens, this can still become quite precarious and see a break-down of support.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Last Chance To Hold As Market Tests The Lower End Of Support

Today we saw the market continue to push lower as we are now testing the lower end of support for the potential wave (iv) per the yellow count. If the market is able to hold around this region and turn higher on five waves, then we still can see this continue to push higher. However, a break of support here would open the door for a larger degree top to be in place for the white wave (b). So with that, the next couple of sessions should tell us a lot about where the market is headed over the next several months and potentially into the end of the year.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Market Held Support Overnight, But Move

Today the market moved higher after holding support overnight. However, the initial move up off of the lows did not give us a clean five-wave impulsive pattern to give us initial confirmation that we have indeed bottomed in the yellow wave (iv). With that, the door remains open to a larger top being in place per the white wave (b), but we still would need to see a full five down off of the retrace from today's low to confirm this. As of right now, this is still not the case, so the market may still need a few more days to digest this action and give us a clear signal as to which way it intends to go.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Metals Are Doing Everything Right . . And Then Some

As I posted earlier this week, there was potential for silver and gold to attempt a 5th wave off the July lows. And, as of my writing this update, gold has seen a higher high, but silver has been lagging. There is still potential for it to do so, so we will watch that carefully.GDX has not only given us 5 waves up, but the 4th wave was extremely shallow, as it hovered around the .236 retracement of the 3rd wave. And, with this extension higher now, we have the minimum number of waves in place for 5 waves up, which is exactly what we wanted to see to make it a higher probability that the next major rally has begun.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Small Change Of Plans

Needless to say, the high we struck last week leaves a lot to be desired as a completed wave v, which I mentioned yesterday. But, we have to take what the market gives us, and I now have to view wave (iii) as complete with that less than a desirable structure, as well as coming up a bit short of the ideal 1.618 extension. But, this is now how I am forced to count it.Yes, there are other interpretations as well, but I think this is the cleanest of the choices.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Getting A Bit Too Big

While I have been calling this pullback a wave (4) within wave v of (iii) (or c of (b) in the alternative count), the current pullback is getting to be a bit big for this wave (4). Yet, please recognize that it does not invalidate as a wave (4) until we break below the low of wave (2). So, for now, I am still leaving my count as this being a wave (4).But, that means we are going to need to see a rally begin rather soon or this runs the risk of invalidation. And, in truth, I cannot say that there is a better count, as the count as shown makes the most sense from multiple perspectives.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago
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