Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Rally Target Reached - Market Analysis for Mar 10th, 2026

With the rally off the Sunday night low now reaching the target box I provided yesterday afternoon, we have just about reached an a=c point off the low.  I have it estimated on my SPX chart due to not having the low on this chart that was struck in the futures.  So, the numbers may not be exact.Based upon our Fibonacci Pinball structure, once the market reaches the 1.00 extension, the .618 extension becomes our support.  That is generally over the 6780SPX region.  So, a break down below that level will be our initial indication that wave 5 may be in progress.I want to also repost something I posted this afternoon as an alert:“We are now approaching the 1.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Very Controlled Market Decline

With the market finally breaking support, it did not fall away as I would have normally expected.   It tells me that the buy-the-dip crowd is still very much alive and well.  But, that does not change my view of the larger structure.The break of the support makes it much more likely that we are within the larger degree pullback, for which I have been expecting for some time.  But, with the continued up/down action, it seems to suggest the c-wave of this (a) wave pullback is taking shape as an ending diagonal.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Market Failed At Resistance, But The Pattern Remains Cloudy

Overnight, the market failed right at the key resistance level that would have needed to break to signal that we were heading directly higher per the yellow count. Today we saw additional downside follow-through; however, the move down off the high is counting better as a corrective wave pattern rather than an impulsive move.This wave structure still leaves several potential paths, and there remains quite a bit of uncertainty as to which direction the market will ultimately break in the near term. I will note that the failure to move through resistance yesterday has made the potential for a direct move higher much less likely.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Downside Set Up - Market Analysis for Mar 4th, 2026

While I am showing a potential 1-2, i-ii in both gold and silver, I have to note there are a number of issues with it.  First, I cannot say that the wave i structure is the cleanest of 5-wave structures.  Second, normally, wave i of 3 will target AT LEAST the .382 extension of waves 1-2, whereas they normally target the .618 extension of waves 1-2.  And, what I have labeled as wave i of 3 has not even come close to the .382 extension.  So, needless to say, I really need a bit more evidence to make this immediate downside set up a much higher probability. The other issue I have is that I really have no clear similar downside set up in GDX.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Closing In On Key Resistance Level

After finding a bottom yesterday and moving higher into the close, we saw the market pull back in a corrective fashion overnight, only to push higher again today. We are now closing in on a key resistance level just overhead, which should help provide further guidance as to whether this market has enough momentum to make a direct push back toward the all-time highs, or whether we still need to see additional downside price action in the days and weeks ahead.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Tested, Yet Again - Market Analysis for Mar 3rd, 2026

I am not sure how many times it will take before a test of the 6720SPX support finally breaks it, but we had yet another today.  And, thus far, the market has held yet again.  Moreover, the rally off that low is initially taking shape as a 5-wave structure, which again forces me to place the yellow (b) wave at today’s low, with a reasonable expectation of a (c) wave rally again.  So, while we wait for the market to provide a bit more clarity, I think this is a good time to review our Fibonacci Pinball structure to show how it differentiates between various options.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Quick Mid-Day Update

The SPX is now pressing hard on the 6720SPX support.  Should this break in a sustained fashion, the trap door opens and this can easily project down to the bottom of the (a) wave support box in the 6200-6400SPX region.  As it continues to develop, we will track the micro structure on the ES chart, with a much larger i-ii downside potential now.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Be On The Lookout

As I write this update, gold seems to be a relatively clear 3-wave pullback, and silver is questionable as to whether it is 3 or 5.  You see, what would count as a 5th wave in silver is really so large it can also be considered a c-wave, which would then count it as a corrective a-b-c pullback.  So, where does that leave us?Well, without a CLEAR 5-wave decline, it tells us that the probability that the larger c-wave decline is not highly likely.  And, we have to then seek other potential options.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

A Clouded Market - Market Analysis for Mar 2nd, 2026

Part of my job is not just to simply provide cut and dry Elliott Wave analysis.  You see, in doing my job, there are times I must read messages being sent to us by the market action, which can assist in my primary job of providing analysis.  Let me explain.The market had a potential 1-2, i-ii downside structure in place (albeit with a shallow wave ii), which means we had a set up for a 3rd wave down coming into today.  And, we even got a negative catalyst to ignite that 3rd wave down.  Yet, the market did not take advantage of that set up.  Moreover, the futures declined down to a 1.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Just A Reminder - Market Analysis for Feb 28th, 2026

Many of you may have noticed that I did not mention a single word of the Middle East in my weekend analysis.   I am probably alone throughout the entire internet in that regard.  And, the reason is that the market is likely going to do as it is set up to do.  To drive this point home, I challenge each and every one of you to show me an instance when a war breaking out was a “cause” for a market decline, and I can probably show you just as many examples as it was a “cause” for a rally.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago
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