Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Wild Action, But Bears Have Not Moved That Needle . . YET

Today, the market spiked and reversed the low struck earlier this week.  And, while it invalidated the “immediate” bullish potential in a 1-2 to the upside, I cannot say that it has moved the needle to providing a strong bearish option pointing us down towards the 6175-6300SPX region.  We are still way over standard support for a 4th wave – which is the top of the support box below on the 5-minute SPX chart (.382 retracement of wave iii) – and the decline has not really taken a clearly impulsive structure to the downside.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Probabilities Are Shifting - Market Analysis for Apr 22nd, 2026

I am putting this report out a bit earlier than normal as things have begun to swing a bit more towards the blue count.If I may remind you, that would mean that if we are to see a 5th wave rally in the coming days, then it would provide a 5-wave structure off the recent lows, which then opens the door to the blue c-wave rally seen on the daily chart pointing us to 8000 and potentially a bit higher.But, before I go into the bigger picture, I want to follow up on the analysis from yesterday.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Evil Is As Evil Does

First, I want to start this update by reiterating that I don’t think this correction is over.  Rather, I still think we see lower levels one way or another.  So, even though many are now looking at this as a new bullish leg in the metals, and have begun celebrating, with expectations of direct higher highs across the market, I am clearly not in that camp just yet.  The overlapping structures we are seeing across the complex strongly suggest that there is going to be further downside to be seen once this corrective bounce completes.Second, the “evil” purple count we have been tracking seems to have gotten even more convoluted.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Stuck Between A Rock And Two Fibs

With the market pushing higher overnight, I outlined the potential that we could be seeing a very shallow 4th wave structure developing as a flat for the blue count.  And, as I write this update, this is still a strong potential right now.With the market dropping from the 2nd strike of the recent high, this can easily count as an a-b-c structure, as outlined in blue on the attached 15-minute SPX chart, which is also presented on the 5-minute SPX chart.If this was really going to be the start of a larger c-wave decline, then the rally which topped in the early morning hours should not have exceeded the .
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Grinding Below The All-Time High

This is yet another instance where logic is thrown out the window, if you are paying attention.   Whereas everyone and their grandmother believed that the market was rallying last week due to the peace talks, one has to ask themselves the logical question as to why the market has not dropped strongly now that those peace talks have broken down?    Well, the basic reason is that the market is not driven by logic.  It is driven by emotion.Therefore, attempting to utilize logic for trading/investing is akin to trying to discuss logic to your spouse when they are being emotional.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Expanding Elliott Wave Analysis

This wave structure is so stretched right now – as we are approaching the 2.00 extension – that I am thinking about expanding the standard Elliott Wave analysis to include a wave 5.5 for this type of extension.  (smile)So, as we approach the 2.00 extension for just this wave segment, it is clear that the wave count is quite full.  But, no support has yet been broken.  While the 60-minute MACD is still displaying the warning sign of a negative divergence and has begun to roll over already, we will need to break the 6940/50SPX minor support region to set our sights on the bigger support represented by the blue wave iv box on the 5-minute chart.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Unfortunately, Not Much To Add In Metals Analysis

I waited until this evening to write the update, hoping that I would glean further information if we got some real movement.  But, alas, no such luck.With the amount of overlap in this rally off the recent lows in metals, there really is no high probability path to which I can point – other than ultimately lower.  While the potential for this being a 4th wave is still just barely on the table, the purple count has clearly been rising in probability.  And, in GDX, there really is no difference at this point between the two counts, other than the purple count should give us a clear 5-wave decline.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Has The Honey-Badger Returned?

I can’t remember the last time I saw this many heads being scratched as I did yesterday and today.   The news is clearly that there is no peace agreement, yet the market has rallied over 2% during that time.  In fact, it has rallied almost 3.5% off the overnight low struck on Sunday night, despite the news which was taken as something that should have been very negative for the market.  And, now, the media, analysts and pundits are all engaging in forms of mental gymnastics to explain why the market has gone up so strongly despite such seemingly negative news in order to twist it into some uber-positive explanation for why the market is rallying so strongly.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

No Top Yet - Market Analysis for Apr 13th, 2026

As I outlined over the weekend, we would have needed to begin breaking support early this week in impulsive fashion in order to suggest a (b) wave top was in place.  But, that is not what we have seen.Rather, the decline in the futures really seems to be a 3-wave event which can be counted in two ways. To be honest, I really like the yellow count on the 15-minute ES chart.  That suggests that the overnight low was an a-wave of wave 4, this rally is a b-wave of wave 4, and a c-wave decline is yet to be seen.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Closer to satisfying price target, but structure lacking

The market moved higher today, exceeding yesterday's high and coming closer to reaching the .764 retrace at 6913.50 that has been discussed as a target for the b-wave bounce.However, by continuing directly higher, price has left us with a less than satisfying wave (iv) of c, being such a shallow and short-lived pullback that finished yesterday morning. Therefore, it looks easily as likely that price is instead just extending a little bit further in wave (iii) of c and another (iv)-(v) will still follow.Either way, 6885.75 - 6932.25 is fib resistance where the next local top is expected to form, whether that is just wave (iii) of c completing or all of wave c of B.
by Garrett Patten - 2 weeks ago
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