Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

GDX Is Positioned Bearishly

As per the title, we seem to have an immediate bearish posture being presented in GDX.  Whereas I am still uncertain as to whether the yellow count will take us below the support box on the 8-minute chart, the structure does seem to suggest we had an initial 5-wave decline (a/1), followed by a corrective bounce (b/2).  Therefore, as long as we remain below last week’s high, I am certainly favoring the downside in the near term.  Of course, if GDX can break out over the high struck last week, it would invalidate this set up, and open the door to the blue count on the daily chart.GLD is really a big question right now.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Market Continues To Push Higher As It Breaks The Previous Highs

After consolidating for the past several days we finally saw the market break the previous highs that were struck on January 24th. With that break the previous purple count has now become the primary count and the color has changed to green. I have added a new purple count as an alternate which would suggest we may be topping in an expanded b wave however I am not viewing this as a highly probable count at this point in time and as long as we remain over the low that was struck on 2/12 the near term pressure will remain up as we still do not have a clear pattern that would suggest a top is already in place.
by Mike Golembesky - 3 days ago

Market In A Holding Pattern

Today we saw the market open flat and stay flat most of the day so there really is not too much I can add to the previous analysis. I will note that the high consolidation today is supportive of seeing the market continue to push higher filling out the purple count before seeing any significant drop. So as long as we remain over support the near-term pressure will remain up. Drilling down to the 10min SPX chart the key support level that I will be watching this week is going to come in at the 6004 low that was struck last week.
by Mike Golembesky - 4 days ago

Silver Is Trying To Break Out Directly

While I was looking for a standard 5 waves up off the wave 2 pullback for wave i, it seems silver may have developed a much smaller i-ii, [i][ii], and is now attempting to break out directly in wave iii.  The 34.15 region is the micro resistance, which if broken, can allow silver to begin to stretch its legs.  Over 34.15, and the 33.60 region will become our support for that break out.Should we see such a break out then the next consolidation/pullback will be wave iv, and once it does break out, then I will provide the micro support for that wave iv.  But, again, 33.60 should be the lower end of that support.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Green Count On Life Support

Today we saw the market continue to grind higher making it more likely that we are going to breakout higher following the purple count to new all-time-highs. We still are trading under the previous high for the moment so I cannot fully count out the green count just yet but it is looking less probable at this point in time. If we continue to move higher in the days ahead it will give us confirmation that we are indeed following the purple count higher.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Market Remains Very Sloppy

Today we saw the market open lower then push higher and is now trading down a bit into the final few hours of the day. Overall the market remains quite sloppy on the smaller timeframes and is still leaving us with a very unreliable count as we are dealing with a series of corrective wave action since the high that was struck in January. So with that, I do not have much I can really add to the overall analysis and this will remain the case as long as we are sitting under the 6165 high and over the 5920 low.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Silver May Try To Drive This Train

As I posted yesterday, silver MAY be trying to set up a break out sooner rather than later.  Let me reiterate that set up.“If you have been following my silver chart, you would know that we have been developing a potential 1-2 structure within a wave [3] of [iii].   And, with today’s low, we have potentially completed a c-wave as an ending diagonal within wave 2.  Again, I cannot say that this is a high probability set up just yet, as both the GDX and GLD seem to need a pullback.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

It’s Déjà vu All Over Again

For those of you that are baseball fans, you would recognize the title as a Yogi-ism.  And, I think it aptly describes this up/down movement we have been seeing for many months within the same range.  But, I am assuming this will finally come to an end this week, as we are really are quite full on the various patterns we have been tracking.Unfortunately, there really is not much more for me to add to the analysis that I posted yesterday.  As long as we remain below the green b-wave, pressure is down.  But, if we break out over it, then we could be seeing the market rally in the purple c-wave sooner rather than later.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Something To Watch For In Silver

No, I have not changed my primary counts in metals, and still believe that they can use a “rest,” but there is a set up in silver that I have to bring to your attention.If you have been following my silver chart, you would know that we have been developing a potential 1-2 structure within a wave [3] of [iii].  And, with today’s low, we have potentially completed a c-wave as an ending diagonal within wave 2.  Again, I cannot say that this is a high probability set up just yet, as both the GDX and GLD seem to need a pullback.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

The Market Was Not Complicated Enough

With the market now moving back and forth in the same range for over three months, and just when I thought it would not get any more complex, it has certainly added a new level of complexity due to the action in the futures on Sunday night.With the futures dropping much more than what can be seen in the SPX, the futures have added another level of complexity with a potential b-wave triangle in the purple count, which I am showing on the ES chart.  It would count the low on Sunday night as the bottom of the a-wave of the [e] wave, and today’s rally as the b-wave of the [e] wave.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago
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