Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Quick Update - Market Analysis for May 13th, 2026

As it stands right now, we have a set up to take the metals much higher.  But, they do not seem to be set up in the same manner.I posted the charts below in silver trying to outline the micro count in this rally, although I cannot say that I have a high degree of confidence in the smaller degree count, it is the best option from those I am seeing.  And, as long as we remain over the wave ii low on the 5-minute chart, then I am looking higher to complete wave 3 of this purple c-wave.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

To Hell With Risk

If you have learned the story of the legendary trader Jessee Livermore, then you would know he made an absolute fortune shorting the market during the 1929 market crash.  But, what most people do not know was that his success went to his head and he made bigger and bigger trades without recognizing the risks, and ultimately died broke and committing suicide by a self-inflicted gun-shot.  The lesson one should walk away with is risk is a double edged sword and must be wielded wisely.Yet, today, it seems many are completely oblivious to the risk inherent in a parabolic rally such as we are currently seeing.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Market Finds Support, Have We Begun The Fifth Wave Up?

Today, the market moved lower right into the upper end of the support zone that we laid out for the potential green wave (iv) and has moved up sharply off of that low. This is leaving the door open for a local bottom to have been found as part of the larger Ending Diagonal wave structure that has been laid out per the green count. With that being said, we still have some key resistance levels overhead that will need to break before we have confirmation that we are indeed heading to new highs.
by Mike Golembesky - 3 days ago

Close, But No Cigar

With the crazy machinations we have been seeing of late in metals, I thought it appropriate to write an update a bit earlier than normal.With the market making a higher high yesterday, I could have made the argument that gold was providing us with a 1-2, i-ii upside set up.  However, the spike low today invalidated that potential.  So, it still leaves us with a potential for a 1-2, as shown in purple on the 13-minute GC chart.But, at the same time, there is also a reasonable count for 5 waves down in gold and silver.  I have outlined those counts on the attached 13-minute GC and 5-minute silver charts.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Paramaters Are Set But No Signal Of A Top Just Yet

Today, we saw the market continue to grind higher in what still counts as an Ending Diagonal off of the April 23rd low. From a wave count perspective, very little has changed from last week and until we can actually see a break of some key support/pivot levels below, we do not have any signal that the market has put in even a local top just yet.The first key pivot level that I am watching below to give us an initial indication that we have put in a local top comes in at the 7388 level.
by Mike Golembesky - 4 days ago

Potential 5 Down - Market Analysis for May 7th, 2026

With GDX and gold both completing 5 waves up off the recent lows, we have two paths that the market can choose.  And, as I noted earlier this morning in an alert, we can clearly reduce the paths in GDX from three down to the final two.So, to remind you, the question on the table is whether we drop to lower lows in a more direct fashion, or whether we have one more rally in the purple count before we begin that drop.  And, our answer is going to be determined regarding whether the market pulls back in a 5-wave structure or a corrective one.Today, the market completed a 5-wave rally in both GDX and gold.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Pulls Back But Still Over Support For Now

After grinding higher over the past several sessions and hitting the upper end of our Ending Diagonal target, we saw the market move lower today. We are, however, still trading over some key support levels below that we would need to see broken to confirm that we have indeed completed the Ending Diagonal pattern off the 4/23 low, or whether this still has some unfinished business to the upside before that ultimate top is found. With today's pullback, the parameters are fairly straightforward at this point in time, so it's simply a matter of seeing how the market reacts over the next several sessions to know which path we are going to follow.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Market Continues To Stretch Higher

Today, we saw the market take the more direct path to the upper end of the Ending Diagonal topping zone that we had laid out over the past several days. We are now pushing the upper limit of where I would expect to see the Ending Diagonal, in its current form, put in a top. If this is going to reverse, it really should begin to do so sooner rather than later.Unfortunately, I do not have a highly reliable alternate count that would suggest a strong continued move higher. So, if we do continue to extend higher, I think it likely would take the form of a larger diagonal off the 4/23 low.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Patiently Waiting For The Metals To Tip Their Hand

I want to again reiterate that the greatest probability path in the larger degree (at least in my humble opinion) is that the metals charts I am tracking should see a lower low before we can begin considering the correction is completed.  However, the charts are still not strongly indicative as to whether we will see a bigger rally before we begin that drop, or if we are going to begin that decline phase to lower lows more imminently.Let’s start with the GDX.   As you can see, we have bounced to the resistance region for wave ii of 3 to the downside.  And, as long as today’s high holds, then that is a very reasonable wave count.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Something Is Still Missing

It does seem as though wave (iv) has completed, and we had the expected overlap into wave (i) that is normally seen during diagonals.  Since that time, I am viewing the rally today as the a-wave of wave (v).Therefore, we are still missing the b-wave pullback, followed by the c-wave of wave (v).  Again, remember that all the substructures within diagonals break down as 3-waves each, counted as a-b-c.So, my expectation is that we will soon begin a b-wave pullback, followed by a c-wave rally.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago
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