Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Could We Have Topped?

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by Avi Gilburt - 23 hours ago

Almost There? - Market Analysis for Oct 7th, 2026

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by Avi Gilburt - 1 day ago

Both Counts Have Issues, but One Has Fewer Than the Other

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by Mike Golembesky - 1 day ago

Progressing Through The Rally

With the market continuing higher today, we have now moved towards the 1.00 extension of the move off the recent lows, and have turned down. I have added a support box for you to track for continuation higher.To remind you again, it seems likely that this rally is taking shape as an ending diagonal. And, within ending diagonals, wave 3 targets the 1.236 extension of waves 1-2. So, I am expecting that we will hold over support and rally to the wave 3 target in the 7870SPX region.OF course, should the market break down below support in an impulsive manner, then that will bring the alternative b-wave count to the forefront.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Still Not Complete - Market Analysis for Oct 5th, 2026

With the market pushing higher today, it has to force us to view another shallow wave 2 as having completed. If you look at the 5-minute SPX chart, you will see that I am now viewing us as being in wave 3 of the ending diagonal taking shape for the c-wave of wave (v).But, due to how shallow the potential wave 2 was, if forces me to extend our target for wave (v) just a bit higher. This makes the ideal target for this c-wave of wave (v) the 7920-7975SPX region.Also, I am leaving the alternative count as presented before – the potential bigger b-wave. But, the more this rallies, the less the probability of that potential.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Paths Clearing Up?

With today’s drop to lower lows during this pullback, I think the market is taking the ending diagonal path to complete the c-wave of the (y) wave in a bigger b-wave pullback. Yes, I know, this structure has gotten quite complex.But, even within this complex structure, the ideal path suggests one more low to the 7632-7643ES region. Let me explain.If this is indeed an ending diagonal for the c-wave of the (y) wave, today we bottomed at the 1.236 extension of waves i-ii in that structure, which is typical for wave iii in a diagonal.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Still Refuses to Provide Much Clarity

Today the market moved higher only to move back lower in the afternoon session. That move up and then back down left us with three waves off of yesterday's low, so we still do not have confirmation that a bottom is in place for all of wave b. The move down off of today's high also counts best as three waves on the smaller timeframe, which does not yet confirm a local top either.This leaves us trading in a bit of no-man's-land on the smaller timeframes.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Pressure Remains Down In Metals . . For Now

As of my writing this update just before 2PM on Wednesday, the pressure remains down in the metals complex. So, let’s look at each of the 3 charts individually.As we know, we have been trying to determine if this pullback is a 2nd wave (or even a b-wave when it comes to silver and gold), or whether we are going to see levels lower than seen this past summer before the next rally begins. And, the market has not yet made that clear.In GDX, I really have no evidence that the green wave (2) should be a strong wave count at this time.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Slowly Leaking Lower - Market Analysis for Sep 29th, 2026

As the market is meandering down today, the pattern continues along its messy route. So much so, that I am not even posting an ES chart as the structure is too overlapping to come up with anything that is reasonable. So, for today, I am simply posting the SPX charts, as they seem cleaner.As I mentioned in yesterday’s update, I am forced to view the current structure as a (w)(x)(y) complex structure within this b-wave. And, within this structure, there are a number of calculations of wave relationship ratios which suggest that the .500-.618 retracement of the a-wave is a reasonable expectation for this b-wave pullback to hold as support.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Just Gets More Messy

As I said in my weekend update, I have been hoping for clarity. Yet, that is the last thing the market is providing to us at this time. Let me explain.Normally, when you have an (a)(b)(c) structure for a b-wave, the (c) wave takes shape as a standard 5-wave Fibonacci Pinball structure. And, within that 5-wave structure, waves 1, 3 and 5 divide in 5-wave structures themselves. This is what we call the fractal nature of the market, wherein movements are variably self-similar.Moreover, when a b-wave completes, and a c-wave begins, that is also usually a 5-wave standard Fibonacci Pinball structure.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago
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