Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Losing Steam - Market Analysis for Aug 13th, 2026

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by Avi Gilburt - 2 days ago

Metals Got A Rest – But, No Downside Yet

We came into this week with the metals getting a rest with sideways action, but no downside has yet been seen. And, this was followed by another extension today. And, yes, there can still be one more small move higher before this wave completes, but it is still quite extended. Moreover, I still think it is quite reasonable to expect some downside in the coming week.What is interesting is that the more this extends in just this move alone, the greater the probabilities swing towards the bottom being in place already. What is also interesting is that gold and GDX have taken out their initial resistances, whereas silver still has not.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Sloppy Action But Market Still Holding Over Support

Today the market opened higher but retraced lower shortly after the open. We have since recovered some of that drop but are still holding over yesterday's low and, more importantly, over the larger-degree support zone, keeping the impulsive move up off of the July lows very much intact. This slow and sloppy action is starting to look like we may be forming an Ending Diagonal up off of the 8/6 low, but we still need to break out over the 8/10 high to further confirm that this is indeed the case.
by Mike Golembesky - 3 days ago

Still Set Up For Upside

Not much has really changed since my last update. The only thing that I can add is that we seem to be filling out a c-wave within wave (2) on the 5-minute SPX chart. And, to remind you, as long as we remain over the 7700SPX region, this (1)(2) is set up to rally to the target box overhead in wave v of (iii).Alternatively, a break of 7698SPX would suggest that wave iv in yellow was not yet complete. But, since the decline from yesterday’s high is looking rather corrective, and a break down below 7698SPX would normally be seen as an impulsive c-wave decline, I have to view this as the lesser probability path for now.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Path Of Least Resistance Seems Up

With the lack of any bearish indications thus far, and the fact that we are clearly over support, it suggests that the path of least resistance is to the upside. And, our next target is outlined by the box overhead on the 5-minute SPX chart in the 7864-7914SPX region. This represents the 1.618-1.764 extensions of waves (i)(ii), and is the typical target zone for wave (iii).In the very micro structure, I an make an argument for a (1)(2) to be developing within wave v of (iii). Clearly, we need to hold support over 7698SPX for this to be applicable. Any break down below that support suggests that wave iv is not yet done.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Slowly Leaking Lower - Market Analysis for Aug 6th, 2026

With the market seemingly topping in wave iii of (iii) of wave i in the yellow count, we have spent yesterday and today slowly leaking lower to the support box below. I want to note now that we do not have to actually strike the support box before wave iv is complete. The main point is that as long as we pullback correctively and hold over that support box, then the next expectation is for a wave v of (iii) rally once this completes.I want to also note that if the market should choose the more bearish path, then we would see a 5-wave decline which would project to at least the bottom of the ES support box.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Consolidates Over Support

After moving sharply higher over the past several days, we saw the market pull back today. We are still sitting over key support, and as long as that support holds, the pressure will remain to the upside per the yellow count. Should that support zone break on five waves, then it would open the door to a top per the white count. For now, however, the market pressure remains up.After a strong two-day rally into the lower end of the wave iii of (iii) target zone, we saw the market pull back into the upper end of support today at the 7743-7662 zone.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Getting More Interesting - Market Analysis for Aug 5th, 2026

With the move today, the metals market is certainly getting more interesting.GDX has now moved beyond its 1.00 extension off the lows, which MAY suggest this is a 3rd wave in a leading diagonal. Yes, I know I am not a fan of leading diagonals. But, if we do complete one here, I would strongly consider it as the first wave in the next major move higher. But, I will need to see a CLEAR corrective pullback thereafter before I am willing to add the remaining amount of cash I am holding.At this time, I would like to see a corrective pullback in wave (iv), followed by a higher high in wave (v), which should ideally target the 87 region.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Bulls Are Seemingly Back In Control

After the market moved through the 7654SPX level, it was a strong sign that the bulls have taken back control. And, despite all the misgivings I have had with the yellow count, it seems I am forced to adopt a VERY shallow 2nd wave retracement once again.Currently, the bulls have control as long as they hold over the micro pivot I have outlined on the 5-minute SPX chart – which is now the wave iv of (iii) support, which coincides with the wave iv of (iii) support box I have noted on the 15-minute ES chart.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Explaining The Analysis - Market Analysis for Aug 3rd, 2026

Some of you are questioning why the 7580SPX level was so important to my analysis, and why a break of that region – even by a point – was so key in my work.Well, first, one of the structures we were tracking was a i-ii downside set up. However, that set up fully invalidates when the market moves even one penny beyond the start of wave i. You see, that is one of the few rules that are set in stone in Elliott Wave analysis. A 2nd wave can never retrace more than the start of wave i, at which time, the structure invalidates.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago
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