Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Market Testing The Highs

After moving lower yesterday, we saw the market push sharply higher today as we once again retest the highs. As we’ve been dealing with for several months now, the price action remains quite sloppy in this region, as we continue to see three-wave moves both to the downside and upside. This is typical when trading within Ending Diagonal (ED) patterns, which still appears to be the case as the market continues to grind higher.On the smaller timeframes, I’m tracking a few different potential paths,  all of which would likely ultimately lead to new highs. The bigger question at the moment is whether we’ll see a pullback before that next high is reached.
by Mike Golembesky - 4 days ago

Looking For A “Bounce”

We have seen quite the selloff in the metals complex.  When the rubber band is stretched to an extreme in one direction, the snap back can be quite painful.  And, I tried to warn quite vehemently about a potential for such a reversal, but too many were busy cheerleading.While I was able to identify the blow-off top occurring in real-time last week in gold, we are now down to the initial support regions on our various charts.  In GC and GDX, we are now at the lower end of the upper support box. In silver, we almost struck the top of the major support box. And, thus far, all count best as 3-wave declines.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Why Do I Bother?

I can’t remember the last time we completed a solid 5-wave, standard Fibonacci Pinball, impulsive structure in the ES/SPX pointing up.  So, I wonder why I even bothered trying to track one of late.  But, needless to say, the decline below the pivot today has spoiled that pattern as well.At this time, we are left with a potential ending diagonal pointing us to one more higher high, or the c-wave decline.  While I cannot count a solid 5-wave decline to strongly suggest the c-wave down has begun, it is still just as viable a path right now as the ending diagonal.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Something Is About To Happen

With the market hovering just below the 1.236 extension of yellow waves (1)(2), there are several options I will outline.I will start with what I view as the primary count presented in yellow.  This suggests we are in the c-wave of wave 5, and as long as we hold over the pivot in a corrective fashion, I will maintain this as my primary and look for the next move to the 6845ES region to complete wave (3).Of course, I have to reasonably track two alternatives.  First, since we have rallied to the 1.236 extension of waves (1)(2), we have to consider that we may be completing the c-wave as an ending diagonal.  You see, wave (3) of a diagonal targets the 1.236 extension of waves (1)(2).
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Is That All We Get?

Silver is currently attempting to complete a (c) wave down.  And, of course, the question is going to be if this is all we get?So far, we have come up a bit short of the .236 minimum target we set for this pullback.  Moreover, we clearly are well shy of the multi-week correction that the 2010-2011 fractal suggested we could see.  But, at the same time, the MACD has now moved down into the reset posture, which can now support a larger degree rally.Moving over to gold we also seem to be completing an a-b-c flat, which may be all of the alt iv.  Yet, GDX really is well short of even an *a)=(c).
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Upside Open To New Highs

With today’s action, I can eliminate several of the paths we have been tracking and we have simply a primary and alternative.  Overall, the same perspective from the weekend update is still applicable:  As long as we remain over the pullback low of last week, we are looking towards higher highs.However, now we can adjust that support to a higher level.  If you look at the attached 15-minute ES chart, you will see that the yellow path is pointing us higher for as long as the market does not break back down below the pivot in impulsive fashion.  As long as we see a corrective pullback holding that pivot, I am looking higher.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Consolidation Before Higher?

As I said over the weekend, we will have to see how the market reacts to the downside once the bounce we expected this week completed.  And, that now refers to the decline that was seen yesterday after the (a)(b)(c) bounce completed. Yet, that decline really counts best as a corrective one rather than a CLEAR 5-wave decline.  Of course, I can force a 5-wave count to it with a VERY extended 5th wave.  But, I think the more likely and reasonable view is that the decline was a corrective 3-wave decline.And, as I said in the weekend update, if the decline is not a CLEAR 5-wave decline, then I would have to objectively look higher again.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

The More Things Change, The More They Stay The Same

Not much changes in the bigger picture.  As Ecclesiastes noted, there is nothing new under the sun.   If you take the time to look back to the last time we struck a major top in the metals (2011), you will see the exact same analysts that were, at that time, claiming that we were only “getting started” with the metals rally, as they were falling over each other claiming higher targets than the next.  At the time, the only argument one would see amongst them was how far beyond the 2000 level gold would rally.Well, today, they are lining up in the same way.   Many are now calling for levels well exceeding 5000 in gold and 100 in silver.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Bearish below today's high

Futures drifted higher following yesterday's close, resulting in the cash chart gapping higher at the open and exceeding yesterday's high. Price continued initially higher following the open to reach the measured move fib target cited in yesterday's EOD update at 6760.50. From there price reversed sharply back down, continuing to cooperate with the expectations laid out for a b-wave bounce off of Friday's low. Therefore, as long as price is now holding below today's high, then the assumption is that a b-wave bounce off of Friday's low has completed, and price is starting a c-wave down from today's high. Based on that expectation, the afternoon low should have completed wave 1 of c, and this is now the wave 2 of c bounce.
by Garrett Patten - 1 week ago

Following expectations for a b-wave

After continuing briefly higher following yesterday's close, futures began to roll over during the overnight trading session, ultimately retracing the majority of yesterday's gap up from the Friday afternoon low. As discussed this morning, price followed the expectations that Avi laid out for a wider flat b-wave, filling out the wave B of b into the low made this morning and rallying strongly since in what should be wave C of b. Although price has already retested the prior high that futures made following yesterday's close, there is still room for wave C of b to reach a bit higher near-term with either the .764 retrace at 6747 or the measured move fib at 6760.50 as the ideal targets.
by Garrett Patten - 1 week ago
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