Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Likely More To Go

Analyzing the market is a process.  And, I want to take you through my process today as to how I determine primary versus alternative wave counts in our current situation.With the market striking the bottom of our target/resistance box, and then turning down, the primary question we have is whether we have begun the (c) wave down, or if the market is providing us with a deep (a) wave, and a (b) wave is yet to be seen?  And, with the market bottoming thus far in between the .382 and .236 retracements of the prior rally, it does not offer much in the way of guidance from that perspective.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

The Bounce Is Here

With the futures dropping to within 25 points of the .236 retracement and the top of our target/support box on the 5-minute SPX chart, we seem to have completed our (a) wave decline.   That likely means that we are now within the (b) wave bounce.Normally, we expect the a-wave within the (b) wave to bounce back to the .382-.500 retracement of the prior (a) wave decline, followed by a b-wave pullback, thereafter leading to a c-wave rally towards the .618 retracement of the (a) wave decline to complete the (b) wave bounce.  And, thus far, the market seems to be complying.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Break Of Support - Enjoy Your Jello

Clearly, we have broken the IMMEDIATE set up for the purple count.  And, that has opened the door to the more direct move lower.  So, I want to be clear about what I know and what I don't know.What I am relatively confident of is that the market is likely going to be heading to the lower lows we have been discussing for quite some time.  What I am not confident about is the path that is taking us there. Right now, this weakness suggests that we can be heading to the lower lows in a more direct fashion. Yet, I do not have a reliable wave structure that makes me confident in that perspective.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Failure Leads To Moar Jello

I wanted to send out a quick update this evening, as the rally today off the overnight low really counts best as a 3-wave rally.  And, 3-wave rallies are usually only corrective in nature.  This now causes a problem for the purple count as we needed a 5-wave rally off the recent low to provide us with the ideal (i)(ii) i-ii set up pointing us higher.Now, at the same time, I cannot say that I see a clear impulsive structure pointing us lower, as the decline from the recent high counts best as a corrective 3-wave structure as well.So, with 3-wave structures in both directions, it puts us back into jello.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Support Held - Market Analysis for Jun 4th, 2026

The title just about says it all and I am going to keep this update very simple.  Today’s low held where a 4th wave of smaller degree would be expected to hold.  Therefore, I am viewing it as wave (4) within wave (v), which you can see on the attached 5-minute SPX chart.The next upside target is the 7646SPX region, which is, astoundingly, the 4.00 extension off the end of March low.  So, to remind you again, we need to beak 7500SPX, with a follow-through below 7389SPX, to make it likely that the bigger pullback (or something much more bearish) is in progress.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Down Today, But Still Remains Over Support For Now

Today the market traded lower as we moved into the lower end of the resistance zone for the move up off of the May 19th low. That move lower is still only a three-wave structure and is trading well above even the upper smaller-degree support levels. So until we see a break of that support zone and/or see a full five-wave move down off the highs, we still do not have any indication that we have put in even a local top just yet.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Purple Is Facing Its First Test

I decided to write the metals report now as we seem to be sitting on a support region. As we said over the weekend, we were looking for a 2nd wave pullback in the purple count.  And, thus far, the market has provided us with that expected pullback.  But, I am again going to remind you that we are still likely within a larger degree corrective wave.   And, unless the purple provides us with a full (i)(ii) i-ii structure, followed by a break out over the high of waves (i)/i, we have to view this action with a bit of a jaundiced eye.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Momentum Seems To Be Waning

As the market continues to make new highs, the overall momentum seems to be waning, as evidenced by the drop in the angle of ascent of late.  This seems to have caused price to be peeking out from the uptrend channel created during this rally from the wave (iv) low, as seen on the 5-minute SPX chart.   Yet, we are a bit short of the 4.00 extension as soon on the 60-minute chart.Yet, the only thing that has really changed from yesterday is the fact that we are starting to seemingly break the uptrend channel I just noted.  Otherwise, there really is not much more I am able to add to the analysis at this time.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

No Weakness Yet - Market Analysis for Jun 1st, 2026

With the market again going sideways for the last day and a half, it resolved that action to the upside.   So, clearly, no support has yet been broken, and the market continues to squeeze higher.With the market now inching even closer to the 4.00 extension in SPX (7646SPX), we are within 30 points of that target as I write this update.  Moreover, there is a larger degree trend line overhead as well in the same region, which can be seen in the attached 60-minute SPX chart.Overall, there is not a lot for me to add to the analysis, other than highlighting the continued negative divergences evident in various technical indicators.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Sideways Led To A Pop

With the market popping higher today this seems to be the final segment in the wave (v).   Therefore, when we break back below the last micro-consolidation – which is basically the 7500SPX support level – then that is the initial signal that this structure has completed.Ultimately, we still need to break down below 7389SPX, with follow through below 7320SPX to confirm that we are either in the blue wave 2, or the red a-wave.  But, please recognize that we are now striking the 3.764 extension off waves i-ii in this rally off the end of March low.  To say this is extreme is likely understating it.  So, of course, risk continues to rise.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago
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