Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Market Fails to Give Us Convincing Evidence That It's Ready to Break Higher

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by Mike Golembesky - 1 hour ago

Market Is Not Making This Easy

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by Avi Gilburt - 1 day ago

Probabilities For Higher Highs Have Increased

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by Avi Gilburt - 2 days ago

Market Testing the Lower End of Support

With today's sharp drop, the risk of the market having already put in a top in the larger diagonal off of the June 9th low has certainly increased. We are currently testing the lower end of the key support zone for the potential wave b, as I am showing in white on the SPX chart. However, if we continue to push lower over the weekend and early next week, then we will have confirmation that we have indeed topped in all of the diagonal off of the June lows.For now, I will be keeping a very close eye on the 7585 level below, which represents the 76.4% retracement level from the move up off of the September 16th low.

by Mike Golembesky - 5 days ago

Quick Morning Update - Market Analysis for Oct 16th, 2026

Due to the size of this rally and the fact that it seems we only had 3 waves into the last low, I am going to modify the blue count to be a 4th wave with an expanded b-wave low. That means this can still push a bit higher and still be wave (iv). But, take note that if all we see is a corrective pullback from up here, and then break out through the 89.72 level, this opens the door in a big way to the correction having completed. So, as long as we remain below 89.72, I am looking down for another decline. If we get the i-ii and then break out over 89.

by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Quick Update - Market Analysis for Oct 15th, 2026

I posted this in the room earlier, and wanted to put it out to everyone, since there is still some risk of which you should be aware:"I want to show you the one thing that is making me hold my hedges for now. Until we get back over 89.72 and without a CLEAR 5 wave decline completion, there is potential for a (i)(ii) downside structure for the yellow count. So, there is still some risk here you need to be aware of. Getting back over 89.

by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Are We Really Doing This Again?

With the depth of the pullback that ended this morning, it has made it VERY hard for me to accept that the market is going to attempt one more push higher in the c-wave outlined in the blue count on the 5-minute SPX chart. In fact, Mike and I had a conversation about this, and it really is a bit of a push.However, I was willing to adopt that count IF, and only IF, we saw a CLEAR 5-wave Fibonacci Pinball structure off the low for wave 1 of that c-wave. But, what we got today barely even qualifies as a leading diagonal, and I already do not view them as reliable trading cues.

by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Does This Market Have Enough Gas Left in the Tank for Another Push Higher?

Today, we saw the market pull back relatively sharply after trading sideways for the better part of the last five trading sessions. While the pullback itself was not entirely unexpected, the velocity of the decline likely caught the attention of many traders after the market had seemingly put everyone to sleep over the past week.The question we now have at hand is whether this pullback marks the beginning of a larger corrective move to the downside or whether we are getting closer to finding yet another local bottom before making another push to new highs.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

We Seem To Have An Answer

For many months now, I have been questioning whether the metals were actually going to get a lower low. The double bottom we got many months ago, followed by a 5-wave structure is what clouded the answer to that question. And, today, I believe we are getting an answer in silver and gold and it seems to be affirmative.Let’s start with silver. With this decline, I think it makes this the grey c-wave pointing us towards the 53.50 region to most likely scenario in my mind. Also, I have added the micro count along with a resistance box for the series of 4’s and 5’s I still think we need.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Moar Sideways - Market Analysis for Oct 13th, 2026

Yes, I continued to wait today for the market to give us some indication as to its intention on striking a higher high and into our target box. But, again, it has left me wanting for more clues.And, since I am only able to provide you that to which the market provides to me, unfortunately, I am unable to add anything to the prior analysis.But, I do want to point out something about IWM, which I posted earlier in the trading room. As you can see from the daily chart, we are at the bottom of the uptrend and hanging around the 200DMA.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

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