Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Market Trades Higher, But The Count Remains The Same

Today the market traded higher, but from a wave count and analysis perpective there is very little change from yesterday's update. We still only have three waves up off the low with no confirmation of even a local top just yet. As I noted yesterday, even if we do continue higher, the most likely scenario would be in the form of a larger ending diagonal. That would imply a choppy and overlapping path toward new highs that will be difficult to track with a high degree of certainty.My focus will remain on the structure of the next pullback.
by Mike Golembesky - 4 days ago

Late Cycle Action - Market Analysis for Jan 21st, 2026

As I have outlined many times before, the gold and mining stock market bottomed at the end of 2015, and we have since been involved in a 10+ year bull market in gold and GDX. While silver bottomed later, it has caught up rather well, as is typical of silver, and all the charts seem to be suggesting this is late cycle action.Of course, there still could be another 4-5 to still be seen, which is my alternative count in silver and gold, but my primary count in GDX.  But, we have to recognize that this is likely an auspicious time to be harvesting profits we have earned over the last 10 years.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Market Finds Support But We Are Still Not Out Of The Woods

Today, the market pushed higher after finding support yesterday. While that is a constructive development, we are still not out of the woods. At this point, we only have three waves up off the low. Even if we do continue higher, the most likely scenario would be in the form of a larger ending diagonal. That would imply a choppy and overlapping path toward new highs that will be difficult to track with a high degree of certainty.From here, my focus is on the structure of the next pullback.
by Mike Golembesky - 5 days ago

Market Testing Key Support

Today the market opened lower and continued to trend lower throughout the session. As we move into the close, price is trading near the lows of the day while testing a key support zone. How the market responds to this area should provide important clues regarding direction as we move through the rest of the week and beyond.Given how stretched the market has become over the past several months, there is certainly a risk that a larger-degree top may already be in place. That said, we still need to see a few key downside hurdles cleared before we can have confirmation that such a top has been struck.
by Mike Golembesky - 6 days ago

No Breakout for the Bulls Just Yet

Today the market pushed higher and tested the overhead pivot, which, if broken, would have provided a signal that the market was ready to move higher in the weeks ahead. However, as we moved into the close, the market began to break undera key micro support level. If we see a sustained break of this support level then it increases the likelihood that today’s advance was simply a wave b within a larger move to the downside.While further confirmation is still required with a full five-wave decline off the highs and a sustained break of support, the initial poke under micro support is the first indication that we are unlikely to see immediate upside follow-through.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Short Update - Market Analysis for Jan 15th, 2026

I am putting out a short update since I am absolutely exhausted from my travel to Israel today.In gold, we now have enough waves to consider this rally as having topped.  Yet, we have not seen the usual hallmark of an ending diagonal completion, wherein it spikes through the trend channel followed by a stronger reversal back into it to start its decline.  So, until we actually see a sustained break down below 4545, I still have to leave that door open.Silver has more than enough waves in place as well.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Is Down, but Not Quite Out

Today’s decline has opened the door to the possibility that a larger top may finally be taking shape. That said, the market is still holding above a key support level, which keeps the more immediately bullish count intact for now. As long as this support holds, my base case remains that the market will resolve higher before we see a more significant top develop. However, a decisive break below support would increase the odds that a larger-degree top is indeed in place.As shown on the ES chart, current support resides in the 6951–6906 zone. I continue to view this as a critical area for maintaining the immediately bullish count, shown in blue on the charts.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Coloring Between The Lines

With the market just meandering between resistance and support, there really is not a lot I can add to the analysis right now.  Support remains at 6900SPX, and resistance is clearly the pivot. My primary is looking higher for now, especially as long as we holding over 6900SPX support.  The next target is delineated by the target box for wave iii in the 7100-7127SPX region.  Should we reach that target, support will be raised to the 7010-7040SPX region.And, of course, if the market breaks 6900SPX support, a follow through below 6824SPX would make it likely that a larger degree top has been struck, with confirmation coming on a break down below 6720SPX.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Not Much More To Add

Today’s action really has not moved the needle much in terms of the analysis.  The only real addition that I can make is to tighten the support up a bit.  With the drop today, I will now use today’s low as the smaller degree support.  So, as long as the market remains over the low struck in the overnight ES session, we can be looking higher over the coming week or two.Of course, should the market break down below the overnight session low, and follow through below 6900SPX, that would give us a much higher probability in the purple count noted on the 5-minute SPX chart.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Staying Objective - Market Analysis for Jan 8th, 2026

I warned yesterday that, even though the market has extended beyond reason and well beyond any norms, we still must stay objective and not assume we will immediately head into a bearish environment until support breaks.  So, along those lines, I am trying to identify a long set up while we are still over support.I am including an ES chart in this update because you cannot see this potential set up in the SPX.  As you can see from the attached 15 minute chart, there is potential for a leading diagonal for wave (i) of iii pointing us ultimately towards the 7150-7175SPX region if it triggers.  But, we do not even have the set up in place yet.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago
Down Arrow

Free 15-Day Trial

• S&P 500 Wave Analysis
• Gold, Silver, Oil & US Dollar Reports
• Stocks, Options, Cryptocurrencies & more
• Live Coaching & Webinars
CREATE A NEW ACCOUNT
No Credit Card Required
Previous or current members login here.
1 Free Trial per Person
By signing up you agree to our terms and privacy policy. You will receive access to our Trading Room, plus account-related emails and our weekend e-newsletter containing news, updates & promotions from ElliottWaveTrader. You can withdraw your consent at anytime.

OUR MEMBERS SAY ...

I live Finance. 80hrs a week corp finance. I trade as a hobby and in my opinion this is the best site in the world for someone to learn about markets... i rue the day when it is no more or its core is changed. there is NO BETTER SITE IN THE WORLD to get the off-cuff input/feedback/knowledge across ALL MARKETS like this site... Thank you to the analysts here who grind out thousands of charts each week.
"GibsonDog" - Trading Room
My faith in God and my faith in Avi and his team. God lead me to this service over 10 years ago. For a decade I have heard Avi point his bat at this very moment in time calling this S&P level. Though the years I have witnessed him point his bat months, even years before metals hit their highs and lows with almost perfect big picture accuracy. Against every other analysts opinion. I have seen him bullied relentlessly on his public articles on SA and stick to his guns and proven so correct with no one ever apologizing or admitting he called it.
"sdmavrick" - Seeking Alpha
My AUM has grown exponentially because of you and I can't thank you enough. My biggest regret is not signing up sooner! You've done more good than you will ever know.
"AAMilne" - Trading Room
I’ve subscribed for 5 years now and I have to say I see that you’ve been right on this the whole time. Who would’ve thought gold and silver would’ve rallied with rates this high for this long and the markets continued higher as well. Always thought your charts were good but always thought in the back of my mind that rate cuts and other news actually led. So now that I’ve admitted defeat u are free to gloat. Well deserved
"Lil_G" - Seeking Alpha
I worked on trading desks at top investment banks for 10 years, then traded on my own for another 8. I've seen 100s of research from the best analysts in the business. Avi and EWT is the only one I'm willing to pay for right now.
"tzeyi" - Seeking Alpha
“I was 100% in equities and been killing it for 2 years, but I heeded your warning and took everything off the table. I've been cautiously trading your recommendations and now when everyone I know is getting wrecked, I'm still profiting. Thank you so much for what you do, my family and future are safe because of it.”
"DoctorBeat" - Trading Room
This service has not only made me money in trades but equally important it got me out of the market before the meltdown.
"BigDaddyTuna" - Trading Room
"Your service and insight is phenomenal, and has definitely changed my outlook on the market. I’ve been actively working on recruiting new members to your service. It’ll save their financial life."
"Bidking82" - Trading Room
"Today, I achieved my highest weekly profit ever ....I see this as a testament to the power of the guidance available here. I ignored all narratives and traded the charts with discipline. I set clear parameters for each trade, immediately placing OCO (One Cancels the Other) orders with both stops and limits. I made some adjustments as the charts evolved, but kept the orders in place, and allowed the process to unfold. Sincere thanks to all the analysts and members who help make this such an incredible community—especially Avi, Zac, Mike, Levi, and Garrett. I'm incredibly grateful!"
"Dre-" - Trading Room
CNBC had a stat this morning that over the last 20 years 86% of money managers/hedge funds have underperformed the market. They couldn't figure out why that’s the case given how 'smart' these people are. . . . I know my performance since joining the site has skyrocketed!
"HenryH" - Trading Room

  Matched “”
x