Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Cloudy, With A Chance Of Diagonals

Well, up until now, I have given the benefit of the doubt to the bulls.  However, that benefit of the doubt is starting to erode.With the lack of follow-through to the upside, we have been reducing the probability that the bulls can still take us higher one more time before the bigger correction begins.  As of the time of my writing this update, the only path I can maintain for the bullish follow through is via a leading diagonal.  And, as you may already know, I do not view them as strong trading cues.Yet, the bears are not doing much better, as any potential for a wave i down is also only left to a leading diagonal structure.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

I Can Only Give To You What I Can See

I am presenting you with three charts, all telling me somewhat different stories.  So, I am just going to get into the charts.Starting with gold, while I can fashion an argument to claim that this b-wave has completed, I cannot say that I would wholeheartedly believe it.  It would have made much more sense if the market had begun this decline from the February 11th high in impulsive fashion.  Then I would be able to more strongly consider that this b-wave has concluded and the c-wave has begun.  But, that is not what we have seen.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Bullish Scenario Needs a Stick Save

Today, we saw the market open higher and continue to grind higher into the afternoon session, only to be rejected right at the 61.8% retrace of the move down off the highs. We are currently testing a key micro pivot that, if broken, would exhaust any reasonably probable bullish scenario that I could see that would take this to new highs before breaking back under yesterday’s low. So, as of the time of this writing, we are at a very key inflection/pivot level, which, if broken, will clearly give the edge to the bearish path.
by Mike Golembesky - 5 days ago

You Decide - Market Analysis for Feb 17th, 2026

I am going to lay out what I seeing in the SPX/ES charts, and you can decide how it should be viewed.  From the bullish side of the market, we have now completed 5 waves into today’s low.  And, in the yellow count, this could complete a much more protracted yellow (b) wave, suggesting a (c) wave rally north of 7100SPX has begun.  Moreover, the MACD on the 60-minute chart seems to have reset down to the region from which rallies have begun.In order for me to have confidence in the (c) wave rally, I would need to see a rather clear 5-wave rally off the low.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Special Quick Post Market Close Update

The market made a lower low into the close, which opens the door for a potential five-wave move to the downside per the yellow count. While we still need confirmation—specifically a corrective retrace higher followed by a break of the low, the setup now allows for the possibility of a substantial move lower in wave (iii) of the larger wave C.With that in mind, the structure of the next retracement higher will be very important to monitor in the days ahead.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Market Follows Through on Downside Setup but Continues to Hold Larger-Degree Support

Today the market followed through on the downside setup we outlined yesterday. However, we are still holding the larger-degree retracement support zone. In addition, as of this writing, the decline from the 2/11 high still counts best as three waves. That keeps the white count alive, which would allow for another push to new all-time highs.If this move down develops into a full five-wave structure off the 2/11 high, it would open the door to a larger-degree top being in place per the yellow wave B.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

What The Heck Is Up (or not up) With Silver?

While both gold and GDX have seen very nice corrective bounces thus far, with GDX approaching the .764 retracement of its initial decline and gold approaching the .618 retracement of the same, silver has only mustered a move to the .382 retracement region.   The question on my and everyone else’s mind is how do we read this?  If I were looking at gold and GDX in a vacuum, I would be shorting the crap out of those two charts.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Moves Lower After Stalling at Key Resistance

Today the market opened higher and reached the upper end of the key retracement zone from the decline off the February 2nd high. However, that level was quickly rejected, and we saw a sharp move lower that can be counted as a five-wave impulsive decline.Since today's low of the day was struck earlier this morning, the price has bounced higher, but that move so far counts best as being corrective in nature. That suggests the market likely has more work to do to the downside before we can begin looking for even a local bottom.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Looking For A Pullback

With the market completing what seems to be a reasonable 5-wave rally off last week’s low, I think it is now reasonable to expect a pullback. And, normally, we seek a retracement in the .500-.618 region of the prior rally.As you can see, I have added a support box between the .500-.764 retracement of what I have labeled as wave 1, which is basically the 6828-6883SPX region.  For now, micro support is in the 6945-50SPX region.   Once that breaks, it should provide us with an initial indication that wave 2 is in progress.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

What I Don’t See

Sometimes what you don’t see in the market helps you to decide about what the market is about to do.   Of late, I have seen initial indications that the market may have finally topped in the rally off the April 2025 low.  But, when we did not see follow through below 6720SPX, it told me to wait a bit longer for more signals.  With the strong rally we saw at the end of last week, I initially surmised that it was a corrective rally, since I did not see any clear indications that the yellow (c) wave rally pointing us north of 7200SPX was taking shape.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago
Down Arrow

Free 15-Day Trial

• S&P 500 Wave Analysis
• Gold, Silver, Oil & US Dollar Reports
• Stocks, Options, Cryptocurrencies & more
• Live Coaching & Webinars
CREATE A NEW ACCOUNT
No Credit Card Required
Previous or current members login here.
1 Free Trial per Person
By signing up you agree to our terms and privacy policy. You will receive access to our Trading Room, plus account-related emails and our weekend e-newsletter containing news, updates & promotions from ElliottWaveTrader. You can withdraw your consent at anytime.

OUR MEMBERS SAY ...

I live Finance. 80hrs a week corp finance. I trade as a hobby and in my opinion this is the best site in the world for someone to learn about markets... i rue the day when it is no more or its core is changed. there is NO BETTER SITE IN THE WORLD to get the off-cuff input/feedback/knowledge across ALL MARKETS like this site... Thank you to the analysts here who grind out thousands of charts each week.
"GibsonDog" - Trading Room
My faith in God and my faith in Avi and his team. God lead me to this service over 10 years ago. For a decade I have heard Avi point his bat at this very moment in time calling this S&P level. Though the years I have witnessed him point his bat months, even years before metals hit their highs and lows with almost perfect big picture accuracy. Against every other analysts opinion. I have seen him bullied relentlessly on his public articles on SA and stick to his guns and proven so correct with no one ever apologizing or admitting he called it.
"sdmavrick" - Seeking Alpha
My AUM has grown exponentially because of you and I can't thank you enough. My biggest regret is not signing up sooner! You've done more good than you will ever know.
"AAMilne" - Trading Room
I’ve subscribed for 5 years now and I have to say I see that you’ve been right on this the whole time. Who would’ve thought gold and silver would’ve rallied with rates this high for this long and the markets continued higher as well. Always thought your charts were good but always thought in the back of my mind that rate cuts and other news actually led. So now that I’ve admitted defeat u are free to gloat. Well deserved
"Lil_G" - Seeking Alpha
I worked on trading desks at top investment banks for 10 years, then traded on my own for another 8. I've seen 100s of research from the best analysts in the business. Avi and EWT is the only one I'm willing to pay for right now.
"tzeyi" - Seeking Alpha
“I was 100% in equities and been killing it for 2 years, but I heeded your warning and took everything off the table. I've been cautiously trading your recommendations and now when everyone I know is getting wrecked, I'm still profiting. Thank you so much for what you do, my family and future are safe because of it.”
"DoctorBeat" - Trading Room
This service has not only made me money in trades but equally important it got me out of the market before the meltdown.
"BigDaddyTuna" - Trading Room
"Your service and insight is phenomenal, and has definitely changed my outlook on the market. I’ve been actively working on recruiting new members to your service. It’ll save their financial life."
"Bidking82" - Trading Room
"Today, I achieved my highest weekly profit ever ....I see this as a testament to the power of the guidance available here. I ignored all narratives and traded the charts with discipline. I set clear parameters for each trade, immediately placing OCO (One Cancels the Other) orders with both stops and limits. I made some adjustments as the charts evolved, but kept the orders in place, and allowed the process to unfold. Sincere thanks to all the analysts and members who help make this such an incredible community—especially Avi, Zac, Mike, Levi, and Garrett. I'm incredibly grateful!"
"Dre-" - Trading Room
CNBC had a stat this morning that over the last 20 years 86% of money managers/hedge funds have underperformed the market. They couldn't figure out why that’s the case given how 'smart' these people are. . . . I know my performance since joining the site has skyrocketed!
"HenryH" - Trading Room

  Matched “”
x