Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Paths Clearing Up?

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by Avi Gilburt - 1 day ago

Market Still Refuses to Provide Much Clarity

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by Mike Golembesky - 2 days ago

Pressure Remains Down In Metals . . For Now

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by Avi Gilburt - 2 days ago

Slowly Leaking Lower - Market Analysis for Sep 29th, 2026

As the market is meandering down today, the pattern continues along its messy route. So much so, that I am not even posting an ES chart as the structure is too overlapping to come up with anything that is reasonable. So, for today, I am simply posting the SPX charts, as they seem cleaner.As I mentioned in yesterday’s update, I am forced to view the current structure as a (w)(x)(y) complex structure within this b-wave. And, within this structure, there are a number of calculations of wave relationship ratios which suggest that the .500-.618 retracement of the a-wave is a reasonable expectation for this b-wave pullback to hold as support.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Just Gets More Messy

As I said in my weekend update, I have been hoping for clarity. Yet, that is the last thing the market is providing to us at this time. Let me explain.Normally, when you have an (a)(b)(c) structure for a b-wave, the (c) wave takes shape as a standard 5-wave Fibonacci Pinball structure. And, within that 5-wave structure, waves 1, 3 and 5 divide in 5-wave structures themselves. This is what we call the fractal nature of the market, wherein movements are variably self-similar.Moreover, when a b-wave completes, and a c-wave begins, that is also usually a 5-wave standard Fibonacci Pinball structure.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Quick Morning Update - Market Analysis for Sep 28th, 2026

Allow me to take a minute to explain the progression of my GDX analysis.  First, we are now at a 1.00 extension to the downside that MAY complete a bigger wave (2) at the .500 retracement with an (a)=(c) at the same location.  That is represented by the green wave (2).  BUT, we will need a CLEAR 5 wave rally through the pivot to support that.But, as long as all bounces are corrective and the pivot is respected, then this support at the .500 level will likely break and take us down to our next potential for a wave (2) low in the 77/78 region, which is the .764 retracement, which is represented by the blue count.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Quick Morning Update - Market Analysis for Sep 25th, 2026

While I really cannot glean much from the gold chart as it is too much of a mess to be reliable, both GDX and silver are saying that as long as we are below 68 in silver and below 98.35 in GDX, it may be advisable to take a more protective stance, as the potential for lower lows has grown. Should we see something different, I will alert you.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Is The b-Wave Pullback Complete?

The market rally thus far today counts well as a corrective a-b-c structure, which would suggest that we can see another leg lower in a (c) wave decline before this correction completes. If the (b) wave is complete, then we have an ideal target for the (c) wave which coincides with the .764 retracement around 7640ES, which also represents an (a)=(c) decline from the high we just struck.Of course, there are a couple of other reasonable possibilities that I want you to keep in the back of your mind.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Quick Morning Update - Market Analysis for Sep 24th, 2026

With the continued weakness in metals, I wanted to put out a quick update.As long as GDX holds 91.19, the green (ii) is still alive but on life support right now due to the depth and size of this potential wave (ii).  I have also added a pivot on the chart which is quite important in the near term.  A break down below the pivot places pressure down in a big way to the blue wave (ii) box.  Ideally, I would like to see a bounce from this region.  If it is corrective, then we have to prepare for a  drop to the blue box - or potentially lower.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Pulls Back, But The Pressure Remains Up As Long As Support Holds

Today we saw the market move lower after moving higher on Monday and consolidating on Tuesday. Avi noted the potential for this pullback in yesterday's update, and today it seems to be taking shape. With that said, as long as the structure of this move down remains corrective in nature and we are able to hold over support, the simplest path still remains higher before breaking down under last week's low. If, however, we begin to break support and do so in five waves, then it would open the door for a break of last week's low. There are some issues with that potential path, so for now, and as long as support holds, the near-term pressure will remain up.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago
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