Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Following Through To The Downside

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by Avi Gilburt - 1 day ago

Structure Remains Sloppy, but the Simpler Path Still Points Lower for Now

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by Mike Golembesky - 2 days ago

Still Trying For A Bounce

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by Avi Gilburt - 2 days ago

Not A Lot To Add

The market seems to be meandering again, and it is not providing much more for me to add to the analysis.The one thing that is standing out a bit right now is that this pullback is seeming a bit too large for it to be a 4th wave in the yellow wave 1 of yellow wave (v). So, I would have to conclude that this count is becoming even less probable at this time.Also, with the action we are seeing today, it does fill in a nice wave (1) down in the blue c-wave of wave 3. And, as long as we hold over 7670ES, then I can reasonably expect more of a wave (2) bounce.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Both Sides Are Getting Neutralized

With today’s rally taking out the wave ii high, I cannot say we are left with any reliable wave counts right now. What remains on the bearish side is an ending diagonal for the (c) wave down, within which we are completing a VERY deep b-wave of wave 3. And, yes, the depth of this b-wave certainly makes me question this count as well.Yet, the bullish count we are left with as the yellow alternative leaves a tremendous amount to be desired. Both from a structure standpoint and a wave relationship ratio standpoint, it is an exceptionally unreliable count overall. Yet, it may become the last man standing.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Bounce In Progress - Market Analysis for Sep 2nd, 2026

Thus far, the metals charts are playing out reasonably well. And, with the manner in which we have rallied thus far, it is looking much more like a corrective rally, so the probabilities of the first path I outlined in my last update has dropped (that this correction has completed). Rather, it seems that this is a corrective bounce which will likely lead to another drop.What has not been determined yet is if that next drop will be pointing us to lower lows or not.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

What Is Considered A “Break-Down?”

When we provide analysis, we often discuss that a “break-down” will open the door to a larger decline. And, sometimes we see the market break that cited support, only to come back again. So, I am often asked how can we determine if something is truly broken?The reason I am addressing this now is that we had two perfect examples of how the market supposedly “broke” the cited 7625ES level, but we did not get the waterfall decline. So, I thought this a perfect time to discuss it, especially since the market showed us two ways it “breaks” a level but does not really break that level.The first was seen yesterday after my update was posted.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Are We Really Going Down?

Well, as of the time of my writing this update, the impulsive upside set up for wave (v) in yellow has clearly invalidated and there is a very clear set up that is pointing us down to at least the 7400SPX region for a 3rd wave decline. And, the key point to note is that as long as yesterday’s high (wave ii) is not breached, pressure will remain down in this set up.In the micro structure, we have either completed waves (i)(ii) of wave iii of 3 or we are only completing wave (i) as I write this, and we can still see more of a wave (ii) bounce. But, once the market breaks down below 7625ES (the .
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Three Paths Before Us

As the title noted, we have three paths before us in the metals.The first path is that this correction is nearly completed with the current downside action. GDX has almost reached its .382 retracement region, which is the top of the support box. Gold is approaching its .500 retracement. And, silver is hovering just below its .382 retracement. So, minimum targets have been met. And, if we see a clearly impulsive rally begin, then we will have to begin focusing on the upside again.The second path – which for now is my favored – suggests that this completes the initial leg lower. In both gold and silver that would be an (a) wave.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Bears Are Trying - Market Analysis for Aug 31st, 2026

With the lower low we saw today, the bears are certainly trying their best. You see, this now looks like a really nice 5-wave decline, which would tip the scales towards this being wave i of 3 down in the more bearish (c) wave path.In looking at the bullish side, in order this to retain its wave ii status, it would mean that the SPX had an a-b-c pullback, wherein the c-wave was equal to .618 the size of the a-wave. This is not a common ratio we see within a-b-c structures. It is much more common in a 5-wave structure.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago
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