Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Moving Into The Support Zone

Overnight, we saw the market move lower in what is, so far, corrective wave action, following the general path and structure to the downside into the lower support zone that I outlined in yesterday’s update. With that in mind, we now need to see how the market reacts in this region and, more importantly, what the next move to the upside looks like from a structural perspective. That will help provide further guidance as to whether we ultimately see another lower low per the purple count, or if this market finds a bottom in the yellow wave (b).As I noted yesterday, the 6689–6617 zone is an important support region, which we are now entering.
by Mike Golembesky - 4 days ago

Same Bigger Picture View – But Mixed Micro Messages

While the bigger structure right now is pointing lower, the micro structure is still not wholly clear, and providing some very near term mixed messages.  Allow me to explain.Starting with GDX, we seem to be working on a 1-2 decline in the c-wave.  But, there is still a bit of a question in my mind as to whether the wave 2 is done, as we did not even reach the .382 retracement of the initial decline from the b-wave high.  That is an unusually shallow 2nd wave retrace.  So much so that a full 5-wave projection from the high this week points us to the 62 region in GDX, which is the 2.00 extension based upon the current 1-2 structure in place.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Market Taking a Breather

After several sessions of very high intraday volatility, the market is taking a bit of a breather today, currently down less than 1/2 of a percent at the time of this writing. We are still sitting over support but remain under the next key pivot/resistance level. A break of either of these levels should help provide further guidance as to whether the market still has another lower low to go to finish off this initial move down, or whether Monday’s low may already represent at least a local bottom.
by Mike Golembesky - 5 days ago

Rally Target Reached - Market Analysis for Mar 10th, 2026

With the rally off the Sunday night low now reaching the target box I provided yesterday afternoon, we have just about reached an a=c point off the low.  I have it estimated on my SPX chart due to not having the low on this chart that was struck in the futures.  So, the numbers may not be exact.Based upon our Fibonacci Pinball structure, once the market reaches the 1.00 extension, the .618 extension becomes our support.  That is generally over the 6780SPX region.  So, a break down below that level will be our initial indication that wave 5 may be in progress.I want to also repost something I posted this afternoon as an alert:“We are now approaching the 1.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Very Controlled Market Decline

With the market finally breaking support, it did not fall away as I would have normally expected.   It tells me that the buy-the-dip crowd is still very much alive and well.  But, that does not change my view of the larger structure.The break of the support makes it much more likely that we are within the larger degree pullback, for which I have been expecting for some time.  But, with the continued up/down action, it seems to suggest the c-wave of this (a) wave pullback is taking shape as an ending diagonal.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Failed At Resistance, But The Pattern Remains Cloudy

Overnight, the market failed right at the key resistance level that would have needed to break to signal that we were heading directly higher per the yellow count. Today we saw additional downside follow-through; however, the move down off the high is counting better as a corrective wave pattern rather than an impulsive move.This wave structure still leaves several potential paths, and there remains quite a bit of uncertainty as to which direction the market will ultimately break in the near term. I will note that the failure to move through resistance yesterday has made the potential for a direct move higher much less likely.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Downside Set Up - Market Analysis for Mar 4th, 2026

While I am showing a potential 1-2, i-ii in both gold and silver, I have to note there are a number of issues with it.  First, I cannot say that the wave i structure is the cleanest of 5-wave structures.  Second, normally, wave i of 3 will target AT LEAST the .382 extension of waves 1-2, whereas they normally target the .618 extension of waves 1-2.  And, what I have labeled as wave i of 3 has not even come close to the .382 extension.  So, needless to say, I really need a bit more evidence to make this immediate downside set up a much higher probability. The other issue I have is that I really have no clear similar downside set up in GDX.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Closing In On Key Resistance Level

After finding a bottom yesterday and moving higher into the close, we saw the market pull back in a corrective fashion overnight, only to push higher again today. We are now closing in on a key resistance level just overhead, which should help provide further guidance as to whether this market has enough momentum to make a direct push back toward the all-time highs, or whether we still need to see additional downside price action in the days and weeks ahead.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Tested, Yet Again - Market Analysis for Mar 3rd, 2026

I am not sure how many times it will take before a test of the 6720SPX support finally breaks it, but we had yet another today.  And, thus far, the market has held yet again.  Moreover, the rally off that low is initially taking shape as a 5-wave structure, which again forces me to place the yellow (b) wave at today’s low, with a reasonable expectation of a (c) wave rally again.  So, while we wait for the market to provide a bit more clarity, I think this is a good time to review our Fibonacci Pinball structure to show how it differentiates between various options.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Quick Mid-Day Update

The SPX is now pressing hard on the 6720SPX support.  Should this break in a sustained fashion, the trap door opens and this can easily project down to the bottom of the (a) wave support box in the 6200-6400SPX region.  As it continues to develop, we will track the micro structure on the ES chart, with a much larger i-ii downside potential now.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago
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