Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Progressing Through The Rally

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by Avi Gilburt - 32 minutes ago

Still Not Complete - Market Analysis for Oct 5th, 2026

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by Avi Gilburt - 1 day ago

Paths Clearing Up?

With today’s drop to lower lows during this pullback, I think the market is taking the ending diagonal path to complete the c-wave of the (y) wave in a bigger b-wave pullback. Yes, I know, this structure has gotten quite complex.But, even within this complex structure, the ideal path suggests one more low to the 7632-7643ES region. Let me explain.If this is indeed an ending diagonal for the c-wave of the (y) wave, today we bottomed at the 1.236 extension of waves i-ii in that structure, which is typical for wave iii in a diagonal.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Market Still Refuses to Provide Much Clarity

Today the market moved higher only to move back lower in the afternoon session. That move up and then back down left us with three waves off of yesterday's low, so we still do not have confirmation that a bottom is in place for all of wave b. The move down off of today's high also counts best as three waves on the smaller timeframe, which does not yet confirm a local top either.This leaves us trading in a bit of no-man's-land on the smaller timeframes.
by Mike Golembesky - 5 days ago

Pressure Remains Down In Metals . . For Now

As of my writing this update just before 2PM on Wednesday, the pressure remains down in the metals complex. So, let’s look at each of the 3 charts individually.As we know, we have been trying to determine if this pullback is a 2nd wave (or even a b-wave when it comes to silver and gold), or whether we are going to see levels lower than seen this past summer before the next rally begins. And, the market has not yet made that clear.In GDX, I really have no evidence that the green wave (2) should be a strong wave count at this time.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Slowly Leaking Lower - Market Analysis for Sep 29th, 2026

As the market is meandering down today, the pattern continues along its messy route. So much so, that I am not even posting an ES chart as the structure is too overlapping to come up with anything that is reasonable. So, for today, I am simply posting the SPX charts, as they seem cleaner.As I mentioned in yesterday’s update, I am forced to view the current structure as a (w)(x)(y) complex structure within this b-wave. And, within this structure, there are a number of calculations of wave relationship ratios which suggest that the .500-.618 retracement of the a-wave is a reasonable expectation for this b-wave pullback to hold as support.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Just Gets More Messy

As I said in my weekend update, I have been hoping for clarity. Yet, that is the last thing the market is providing to us at this time. Let me explain.Normally, when you have an (a)(b)(c) structure for a b-wave, the (c) wave takes shape as a standard 5-wave Fibonacci Pinball structure. And, within that 5-wave structure, waves 1, 3 and 5 divide in 5-wave structures themselves. This is what we call the fractal nature of the market, wherein movements are variably self-similar.Moreover, when a b-wave completes, and a c-wave begins, that is also usually a 5-wave standard Fibonacci Pinball structure.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Quick Morning Update - Market Analysis for Sep 28th, 2026

Allow me to take a minute to explain the progression of my GDX analysis.  First, we are now at a 1.00 extension to the downside that MAY complete a bigger wave (2) at the .500 retracement with an (a)=(c) at the same location.  That is represented by the green wave (2).  BUT, we will need a CLEAR 5 wave rally through the pivot to support that.But, as long as all bounces are corrective and the pivot is respected, then this support at the .500 level will likely break and take us down to our next potential for a wave (2) low in the 77/78 region, which is the .764 retracement, which is represented by the blue count.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Quick Morning Update - Market Analysis for Sep 25th, 2026

While I really cannot glean much from the gold chart as it is too much of a mess to be reliable, both GDX and silver are saying that as long as we are below 68 in silver and below 98.35 in GDX, it may be advisable to take a more protective stance, as the potential for lower lows has grown. Should we see something different, I will alert you.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Is The b-Wave Pullback Complete?

The market rally thus far today counts well as a corrective a-b-c structure, which would suggest that we can see another leg lower in a (c) wave decline before this correction completes. If the (b) wave is complete, then we have an ideal target for the (c) wave which coincides with the .764 retracement around 7640ES, which also represents an (a)=(c) decline from the high we just struck.Of course, there are a couple of other reasonable possibilities that I want you to keep in the back of your mind.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago
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