Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Market Pulls Back, But The Pressure Remains Up As Long As Support Holds

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by Mike Golembesky - 19 hours ago

Deeper Correction? - Market Analysis for Sep 23rd, 2026

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by Avi Gilburt - 23 hours ago

Tracking The Action Carefully

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by Avi Gilburt - 1 day ago

Path For Yellow - Market Analysis for Sep 22nd, 2026

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by Avi Gilburt - 1 day ago

Quick Morning Update - Market Analysis for Sep 22nd, 2026

I can now reasonably move down to two wave counts. Of course, we could get another curve ball today, but for now, these two scenarios make the most sense to me.Clearly, the first is the yellow count we have been tracking for quite some time now. And, it "should" carry us to the 7900-8000SPX region before we see another larger bout of weakness. The second would suggest a major top, and that is in red. But, in order to begin a confirmation of that path, we would need to break down below the yellow wave i in the 7233SPX region.Again, the market could still give us another curve ball without getting us to higher highs.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 days ago

Above All Retrace Resistance

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by Garrett Patten - 2 days ago

Metals Are Certainly Trying

While the metals have certainly provided us with a nice pullback thus far, I do not yet have enough evidence to strongly suggest that the pullback is complete and a 3rd wave rally has yet begun.Starting with the 60-minute gold chart, you will see that we bottomed this past week just over the support box. And, off that low, while we do not have an ideal Fibonacci Pinball 5-wave structure, we can make out a leading diagonal. Yes, I know those are not terribly reliable.

by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Market Remains In No-Man’s-Land Territory

After moving higher yesterday and into the retracement zone for the blue wave b, the market moved slightly lower today after stopping at the 61.8 retracement level right on the nose. While holding and turning at an expected retracement fib is typically a good early signal that the primary count may indeed be following through, we still do not have a clear five-wave move down off of that level.We could make the case that we have five down in leading diagonal form off of the overnight high in the ES. However, these patterns are far from reliable and need further confirmation in the form of a corrective retrace followed by a break of the end of that leading diagonal.

by Mike Golembesky - 5 days ago

No Man’s Land

As I wrote earlier this week and this morning again, with the taking out of lower resistance ovenight, we have moved into no-man’s land wherein I do not believe we can view one potential as being a higher probability than the other on the 5 and 15 minute charts. Although I will add that the downside path has a greater Bayesian probability than the yellow count based upon Luke Miller’s work, I cannot say that the two Elliott Wave counts being presented here stand out on their own as one being a higher probability than the other.In the blue count, yesterday’s low completed a very overlapping and unclear a-wave decline.

by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Quick Morning Update - Market Analysis for Sep 17th, 2026

Thus far, the metals have held where they have needed to for their respective 2nd/b-waves. But, we did not get a clear 5 up in standard fashion. Can we call it a leading diagonal? Sure. But, as you know, they are not reliable enough for me. So, I am going to be a bit more cautious until we invalidate downside potentials. In GDX, that means a break out over 101.83. In gold, that means a break out over 4560. In silver it means a break out over 69. And, should we move higher in the coming days, I may raise my stop to the lows we just struck yesterday. And, I want to see a bigger degree 1-2.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

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