Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Trying To Keep It Simple

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by Avi Gilburt - 9 hours ago

Point Of No Return

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by Avi Gilburt - 1 day ago

Market Continues To Push Lower, But Structure Is Far From Clean

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by Mike Golembesky - 1 day ago

Summer Doldrums - Market Analysis for Jun 16th, 2026

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by Avi Gilburt - 2 days ago

Bulls Are Trying To Open The Next Door

With the SPX moving through the resistance box today, I have been forced to add a bullish alternative to the counts I am tracking.  But, I want to make it clear that this is in no way my preferred path at this time, and it will need to prove itself as per the outline below.For now, I am still viewing this rally as a (b) wave until proven otherwise.  But, we also need to see a CLEAR 5-wave decline to make it a strong probability that a (c) wave decline is in progress.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Small Changes - Market Analysis for Jun 15th, 2026

With the rally we are seeing today, I wanted to keep you apprised of where I think we are so that you can be appropriately prepared when the next buying opportunity arises.There are only two small changes I would make to the analysis from the weekend.  The first is in GDX. Due to the size of the move higher, I think it is clear that the recent low completed the 3rd wave of an ending diagonal in the c-wave for GDX.  With it hitting a low just beyond the 1.382 extension of waves 1-2 to the downside, this is a very reasonable bottom to the 3rd wave in a diagonal in metals.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Ugly Action as Market Sees More Whipsaw

Today, the market opened up slightly, followed by a small dip in the morning session, only to push sharply higher in the afternoon. We are currently trading at the highs of the day and have broken the most immediately bearish path that we had laid out yesterday. This is making the more indirect path lower, as laid out in the yellow count, more likely.With that being said, I still cannot rule out a more immediate drop from around current levels. However, under that case, I think it would be more likely that any direct move lower would take the form of an Ending Diagonal to the downside.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Direct May Not Be So Direct

The main point of this update is simply to remind you that pressure will remain down in the more direct path to our lower directs UNLESS we see a VERY CLEAR 5-wave rally take hold at higher than a micro level.  But, even so, I am still expecting a sizeable bounce soon in a 4th wave of the c-wave lower.Yet, I want to note that silver still retains some potential for the purple count.  Last night, we struck a 1.00 extension (a=c) low and have bounced.  Since I am counting a direct move lower as an ending diagonal, we really should be targeting at least the 1.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Weighing Competing Issues - Market Analysis for Jun 10th, 2026

Yesterday, I tried taking you through my thought process when I analyze the current SPX structure.   Today, I am taking it to the next step and adding in the new information we have seen since yesterday.We were trying to distinguish between the yellow larger (a)(b) structure and the more immediate downside 1-2 set up within the (c) wave.  In the later afternoon yesterday, the market rallied up to the .618 retracement of what I am viewing as the wave 1 down, but the rally could be counted as a 5-wave structure.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Likely More To Go

Analyzing the market is a process.  And, I want to take you through my process today as to how I determine primary versus alternative wave counts in our current situation.With the market striking the bottom of our target/resistance box, and then turning down, the primary question we have is whether we have begun the (c) wave down, or if the market is providing us with a deep (a) wave, and a (b) wave is yet to be seen?  And, with the market bottoming thus far in between the .382 and .236 retracements of the prior rally, it does not offer much in the way of guidance from that perspective.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago
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