Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Market Down Today, But Still Remains Over Support For Now

Today the market traded lower as we moved into the lower end of the resistance zone for the move up off of the May 19th low. That move lower is still only a three-wave structure and is trading well above even the upper smaller-degree support levels. So until we see a break of that support zone and/or see a full five-wave move down off the highs, we still do not have any indication that we have put in even a local top just yet.
by Mike Golembesky - 3 days ago

Purple Is Facing Its First Test

I decided to write the metals report now as we seem to be sitting on a support region. As we said over the weekend, we were looking for a 2nd wave pullback in the purple count.  And, thus far, the market has provided us with that expected pullback.  But, I am again going to remind you that we are still likely within a larger degree corrective wave.   And, unless the purple provides us with a full (i)(ii) i-ii structure, followed by a break out over the high of waves (i)/i, we have to view this action with a bit of a jaundiced eye.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Momentum Seems To Be Waning

As the market continues to make new highs, the overall momentum seems to be waning, as evidenced by the drop in the angle of ascent of late.  This seems to have caused price to be peeking out from the uptrend channel created during this rally from the wave (iv) low, as seen on the 5-minute SPX chart.   Yet, we are a bit short of the 4.00 extension as soon on the 60-minute chart.Yet, the only thing that has really changed from yesterday is the fact that we are starting to seemingly break the uptrend channel I just noted.  Otherwise, there really is not much more I am able to add to the analysis at this time.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

No Weakness Yet - Market Analysis for Jun 1st, 2026

With the market again going sideways for the last day and a half, it resolved that action to the upside.   So, clearly, no support has yet been broken, and the market continues to squeeze higher.With the market now inching even closer to the 4.00 extension in SPX (7646SPX), we are within 30 points of that target as I write this update.  Moreover, there is a larger degree trend line overhead as well in the same region, which can be seen in the attached 60-minute SPX chart.Overall, there is not a lot for me to add to the analysis, other than highlighting the continued negative divergences evident in various technical indicators.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Sideways Led To A Pop

With the market popping higher today this seems to be the final segment in the wave (v).   Therefore, when we break back below the last micro-consolidation – which is basically the 7500SPX support level – then that is the initial signal that this structure has completed.Ultimately, we still need to break down below 7389SPX, with follow through below 7320SPX to confirm that we are either in the blue wave 2, or the red a-wave.  But, please recognize that we are now striking the 3.764 extension off waves i-ii in this rally off the end of March low.  To say this is extreme is likely understating it.  So, of course, risk continues to rise.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Defining Moment For Evil

The evil purple count is now at support in gold, and this is the last opportunity I am giving the market to either prove that evil count, or to let us know that we are going to be heading to the lower targets in a more direct fashion.IF you look at the 60-minute gold chart, you will see the 4400 region as the support I have outlined by the red support line.  Should the market see a sustained break of that support, then it becomes likely that we are heading down in wave 3 of the c-wave, pointing us down to the 3550-3850 region.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Sideways Today - Market Analysis for May 27th, 2026

For the most part, the SPX has been going sideways for the last two days.  Moreover, depending on how you draw the channel, it may still just barely be holding on to this uptrend channel we have developed since the low struck on May 19th.  So, this could easily be a consolidation before it makes one more push higher to complete wave (v).  I must reiterate how hard it is being an analyst and knowing how incredibly stretched this market is, yet still suggesting this could push even higher.  In fact, I posted a chart of the NQ this morning and noted how we have basically struck the 4.382 extension of waves 1-2 off the low struck in late March.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Still Over Support

Over the long weekend, the market continued to push higher in a very sloppy pattern but managed to push to new highs. This is making the green count the more likely path at this point in time. With that said, I am still leaving the white count on the table for the time being. However, from a practical standpoint, it does not make too much of a difference other than how much higher this can extend.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Market Sitting Under Resistance For Now

The market has seen very sloppy wave action over the past several days and has yet to give us confirmation that we have indeed put in a top in either the wave 1 or larger wave (5). We are trading up today after moving lower overnight but are still trading under the key resistance zone that is keeping the b wave retracement count on the board. We now simply need to wait and see if the market is going to be able to hold this resistance level and turn back lower under the support/pivot zone, or if the market is going to break through that level and give us yet another high.
by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago

Escalator Up? - Market Analysis for May 21st, 2026

I am going to make this update short.  The last metals update told you to expect a bounce, and that is what we got.  While I am really questioning what that bounce was in GDX, silver can be 5 waves up, but gold has a “technical” 5 waves up.  The problem with gold’s 5 waves up is that it had a 3rd wave to the 1.618 extension and the 5th wave just shy of the 2.00 extension off the i-ii set up off the low.  That is NOT normal to see in a metals 5-wave structure, and they often well exceed those standard targets we see for equities.  Yet, I cannot deny that 5 waves up.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago
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