Market Update

Avi Gilburt

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Market Is Not Providing Any Evidence of a Lasting Bottom In Place Just Yet

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by Mike Golembesky - 2 days ago

Down, But Not Out . . YET

This has been quite the bull market. We have seen VERY shallow retracement over these last several years and the bulls have pushed these markets to extremes which I was not able to foresee back in 2020 when we began looking much higher at the Covid lows. At the time, my maximum expectation was around the 6000SPX region from the 2200SPX lows.Needless to say, all good things must come to an end. But, does that mean we are at that end now?While I was expecting some downside into today, as outlined in the update yesterday, I did not expect that this upside set up was going to break today.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Quick Update - Market Analysis for Nov 5th, 2026

Unfortunately, the immediate bullish path in SPX broke down this morning with a break of this week's low.  Yet, the ES still holds a potential (1)(2) start.  That means this is not terribly reliable just yet.Moreover, based upon the current structure, I am going to put a reasonable floor to the market for a wave ii in green at the 7398SPX region.  That would represent an (a)(b)(c) wherein (c)=(a) from the highs struck before this downtrend began.  Below that, and the red count increases in probability. While many of you may not have the stomach for this, that is understandable.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Lack Of Alignment Causes Analytical Issues

I am going to start this update, and probably several others in the future, with something I said yesterday that I think deserves repeating often. I think this is how we are forced to view the markets going forward:"In the bigger picture, there are still two main points you have to weigh. First, until the market breaks the 7237SPX level, we have no clear indications that a major top may have been struck already. And, second, this is a VERY mature bull market, especially when we consider that we are attempting to complete a multi-decade 3rd wave which began in 1932.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Approaching Next Resistance - Market Analysis for Nov 4th, 2026

Yes, I am posting this update a bit earlier than normal, but I think we all have to be aware of where we currently reside in the metals complex.Can the lows be in place? Absolutely, as we have enough waves in place now to view the respecting c-waves as completed.Yet, as we have discussed many times, we will need to break out through resistance to make it more likely for this to be the case in the metals, and we really want to see a clear 5-wave rally in GDX as well.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Morning Update - Market Analysis for Nov 4th, 2026

I am not sure what to really say, but the ES filled in the final waves and was off to the races.  I am now likely forced to accept a truncated low in SPX in order to attempt to align these two paths.  The main point now is that as long as we remain OVER the low struck last night in ES, we are going to track a bullish path as our primary.  Should it fail, well, then we will have to strongly consider the red top-is-in count.  But, for now, the bears will have to prove that to us.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

The Issues In The Futures Continue

Not only did the futures get a higher high last week in the b-wave, but we have now made a lower low in the futures, which has also not been seen in the SPX cash index. At least not yet. So, I am trying to figure out how to synthesize the structures and how to interpret them in a way that is consistent and in which they can potentially align.There are two paths I outlined today which can align both the futures and the SPX. That is presented on the attached ES chart.The first path would consider today’s bounce a wave iv in an ending diagonal for wave 5 of c of ii.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Has The Next Bullish Uptrend Begun?

There is a lot to discuss in this evening update, so take your time when reading through it.First, even though the market has moved through initial resistance to suggest this bounce is more than a 4th wave, I cannot help but keeping that potential in the back of my mind, with another lower low to be seen to complete the c-wave down. But, in order for that to be the case, then the rally into today’s high would be an a-b-c structure wherein the c-wave is equal to .618 the size of the a-wave. But, that is relatively rare, so it forces me to assume that the bottom of the c-wave has indeed been struck.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Quick Morning Update - Market Analysis for Oct 30th, 2026

Well, we FINALLY got this lower low in gold, and this can complete this entire decline now.  This now looks VERY full.  To confirm the bottom is in, we need to break out through the downtrend channel on the 60-minute chart, and then through the wave (4) should make it highly likely that we have begun the (b) wave.  Of course, if the rally begins in impulsive fashion, we will have considerations for the yellow count.  But, for now, I am expecting a corrective rally in 3-wave structures which is why we will need a break out over resistance for confirmation.In silver, while my minimum ideal target of 53.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Not Many Good Choices

We had a very interesting end to the day yesterday. While the SPX did not see an invalidation of its wave 2 in yellow, it certainly went deeper than the standards we normally see for a 2nd wave. And, this often portends a break of the set up. Yet, the SPX has still retained the set up.However, the ES – just after the market closed yesterday – spiked up and then spiked right back down. And, yes, the ES saw its immediate bearish set up invalidated through this action. However, there are a very small number of times I have seen in the past where an after-hours futures move was to be disregarded due to the lower volume after hours action.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

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