A Bit More Detail
By
Avi Gilburt
So, here is a little wrinkle that I will be watching due to the action into the close.
If we drop down directly in a 5 wave structure in the SPX from a high we either struck at the end of today, or will strike tomorrow with a bit higher push, then it is clear that this rally to a higher high was a b-wave within the green (a)(b) structure, with a (c) wave rally to follow. That is because c-waves are 5-wave structures, and a 5-wave structure drop makes it clear it is a c-wave down in an a-b-c pullback in the green (b) wave.
However, if the next drop takes shape as a 3-wave structure - a-b-c - then the high we hit today or will finish tomorrow can either be the top of wave (i) or an (a) wave in the SPX, because a-waves can be 5 wave structures as well, albeit not as often as they present as 3-wave structures.
The difference is that a 5-wave structure to the downside from here makes it MUCH more likely that this is an (a)(b)(c) corrective structure, and will resolve sooner rather than later with a larger decline to 2200SPX within a month or two, as presented by the green wave structure on our 60min and daily charts.
However, if the decline is a 3-wave structure - a-b-c- - then the next rally will either be a (c) wave rally in green or a wave (iii) in the more bullish blue count eventually pointing towards 3011 for wave (5). And this one will be much tougher since we will have to wait for an impulsive break down below a Fibonacci Pinball support on the rally up over 2800SPX to tell us that the larger c-wave down to the 2200 region has begun, and if we do not see such a break down, then we continue higher in the impulsive blue count to 3011 into early 2019.
As I said when the ES gave us a potential 5 wave structure off the 2600 lows, the structure has gotten much more complex. And while those newer to EW may not glean the intricacies and consequences of what I am outlining above, don't worry . . . we will be tracking this carefully on the next rally higher and will continue to outline what we are seeing along the way.
But, this is an amazing learning exercise for those learning Elliott Wave, as it provides many opportunities to be able to distinguish between impulsive structures and corrective structures.
