Faster Than Expected - Market Analysis for Apr 2nd, 2025

Clearly, I was looking for the move down to the 5000SPX to provide more of a set up, as I thought we would get more of a bounce in the daily MACD.  The market may have other plans.

I am going to put this very simply.  As long as the market remains below the pivot noted on the 60-minute ES chart, then we have a more direct path to the 5000-5100SPX region.  Should the market break out over the pivot first, then we will have to reset our wave count.  But, as long as we are held below it, pressure will now remain down.

The next opportunity will come into play if we complete 5 waves down in this [c] wave.  That would be a long opportunity for those choose to take it, and it could last at least several weeks, if not much longer.  It will all depend on whether the rally off 5000SPX is a b-wave in red, or the a-wave in yellow.  We will not know the difference until we see how the market pulls back from that rally high.  If it drops impulsively, we will be setting up a c-wave crash to the 3500-3800SPX later this year.  If we pullback correctively, then we open the door to 6200SPX again.

We will still be taking this one step at a time, and quite cautiously.  But, if the market provides us with a 5 wave decline after that b-wave rally, well that is our first MAJOR signal that the bull market is DONE!