Fuller b-wave - Market Analysis for Nov 21st, 2024

My update the other questioned whether the b-wave had been done, as it was quite shallow.  Well, at this point in time, we now have more of a complete [b] wave structure.  While the c-wave of this [b] wave would have to be counted as an ending diagonal, it does look like a reasonable count to me.

However, this market has certainly been stingy with downside follow throughs.   Therefore, I am going to provide the same warning that I did the other day – please allow for a 5 wave decline for wave 1 to take shape before you consider shorting this market.  If we can see a 5 wave decline followed by a 3 wave corrective bounce, that would be a lower risk downside set up, with the invalidation point being the top of the [b] wave.

And, as long as we remain below the 5980SPX level, I am viewing the downside potential as more likely than not.  But, again, I want to see the 1-2 set up to make it a higher probability.