Green Count On Life Support

Today we saw the market continue to grind higher making it more likely that we are going to breakout higher following the purple count to new all-time-highs. We still are trading under the previous high for the moment so I cannot fully count out the green count just yet but it is looking less probable at this point in time. 

If we continue to move higher in the days ahead it will give us confirmation that we are indeed following the purple count higher. Just keep in mind that as we are likely dealing with a larger ending diagonal off of the August lows when this move does finally come to an end the reversal to the downside will likely be sharp. For now however and as long as we remain over support there does look to be some unfinished business to the upside. 

Moving over the 6130 level on the SPX will give us final confirmation that we are indeed following the purple count higher. At that point, the question that I will have is whether the c wave is going to take the form of an ending diagonal off of the 2/3 low or whether we bottomed at the 2/13 low in the form of a triangle. I am going to leave that an open-ended question for the moment and will want to see how the structure develops over the next several sessions.

For now, the key downside pivot level is going to come in at the 5991 low and as long a we are trading over that level the near-term pressure will remain up. If that level breaks then it would open the door for a top to be in place at which time we will be looking for a five wave move to the downside to give us additional confirmation that we may be heading lower in the wave c.