Has The “Bounce” Begun?

As I said last week, I think it is reasonable to expect a bounce this week.   But, when I look closely at the structure of the decline we saw last week, it leaves a question open as to whether the [a] wave has completed.

You see, this bounce could be a wave iv in the [c] wave of the a-wave, and I have labeled that as “iv?” on the chart.  But, it could equally be the a-wave of the [b] wave bounce.  The reason I question the a-wave classification a bit is because the a-wave of a corrective bounce usually reaches the .382 retracement region of the prior decline.  And, as we can see, we did come up short.  So, it has left the question open in my mind.

For those that have been doing this a long time, you would already know that b-waves are the most variable segments of a corrective structure.  And, it usually sees complications such as this.   So, this should be no surprise.

Moreover, should we see a deeper [a] wave, I will adjust the resistance/target box for the [b] wave.  But, for now, I am leaving it as I have it on the chart.  And, I would assume that by tomorrow we will likely have the answer to this question.

Lastly, as long as that resistance holds, and we then see an impulsive 5-wave decline from that resistance, then I will be expecting us to test the support box below in the 5560-5675SPX region.