MAJOR RESISTANCE - Market Analysis for Oct 10th, 2023

While this rally has been quite nice to see, we are still at a VERY important juncture as we are now in the 4375-4401SPX resistance region I have been pointing towards.  Moreover, the ES structure has now stalled right at the a=c region off the recent lows.   And, I have been highlighting how important this resistance region is to our views.

So, yes, this is still VERY important resistance.  Yet, there are still two ways this can resolve, as it is not a foregone conclusion that a top here is the wave iv in green.  Remember, not only do we have to top here, but we need to break down below 4165SPX to make green a higher probability.

This means that there is a goldilocks-type of resolution, even if we do top here and head down.

If you look at the IWM chart, you will see that it does suggest one more 4-5 that can be seen before this c-wave completes.  So, I am going to assume the same will occur in SPX, wherein we can still go down again and it would only be a 5^th wave of the blue [c] wave.   And, it may only provide us with a marginally lower low or even a double bottom.

Again, remember, in order for us to adopt the green count, we will need to see a break-down below 4165SPX.  Until that happens, I am still keeping the blue count as my primary and looking up to 4800SPX.   

But, the reason I am writing this update early is because we now reside right at resistance, and you can choose to protect any longs you have right now.