Market Ends The Day Flat
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Today we saw the market open up slightly not doing much after that initial push higher and at the time of this writing we are trading flat once again. This is leaving us pretty much in the same place where we ended the week last week and thus there really is not too much to add to either the weekend analysis Avi has laid out and the updates that I posted last week. I will note that I have moved to the ES chart on the smaller timeframes as it a bit cleaner and has more information to work with.
I can count the overnight consolidation as the wave 4 off of the 7/2 low and the move up in the morning as the wave 5. That puts support at the 5597-5571 zone. Over that zone we still can continue to extend higher towards the 5639-5655 zone overhead, but moving below that zone would be an early signal that we have put in at least a local top. We still would need to see a break back under the 7/2 low followed by a break under the 5365 level on the SPX to signal that we may have put in a larger degree top but the upper support levels are as noted above on the ES.
The bigger picture there really is not too much to add as the primary count remains that we are topping in a wave b after finishing off the larger wave (5) in March. I will note that the MACD on the 60min chart has begun to roll over after getting into overbought territory but we still need to see further downside follow-through by breaking those support levels as noted above to confirm that we may have indeed put in a top.
