Market Still Pushing Higher
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Today we saw the market gap higher this morning and continue to push higher with the SPX closing in on the previous all-time highs and the NQ breaking those highs. With this continued push higher we have opened the door for this market to continue to extend higher as we close in on the end of the year. We are still very extended in regard to the larger timeframe charts but until we actually begin to see some confirmation that a larger degree top may be in place there is still certainly room to extend higher.
The bigger picture there is really not much to add and the 60min chart remains unchanged from our previous analysis. I have modified the smaller timeframe charts slightly to account for today's action. With the inability to break down below yesterday's low, I am going to count that low as a wave (iv) as part of the larger wave c up to finish off our larger wave 5.
Under that scenario, I would expect to still see the SPX push a bit higher before a top is seen. We may however need to see a pullback as part of a wave b of (v) before that push to new highs occurs. If we do see a pullback then the structure of that pullback will be important. If we see a clearly corrective move lower that holds over the 6026 low then the push to new highs is likely.
If we see a five wave move lower followed by a break under the 6026 low then it would be an initial signal that we have already put in a top. We still would need further confirmation of a top with a break under the 5992-5965 region below.
Unless and until we begin to break support the near term pressure will remain up. So while we do remain cautious on the larger timeframes we cannot argue with price and structure and as of right now we simply do not have confirmation that the larger degree top has been struck.
