Need more confirmation of a top
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The market traded lower today after the open, breaking below yesterday's low but so far still sporting only 3 waves down from the May high. Therefore, while odds have increased for a local top in place already, we still need more confirmation of such. I am looking for a break below the prior 4th wave low at 2398 SPX next to further indicate a lasting top in place, after which we should have a better idea of what kind of structure we are getting off the high. 2422 SPX remains the next resistance above until we take out the signal level.
Overall, I am personally still of the opinion that near-term upside from here is limited, and the more likely path is another swing move lower as either wave (c) of an expanded flat wave iv shown in blue, or a reset of wave iv if the May high was another extension in wave iii shown in red.
