Of Course, It Has To Get More Complex

Surprise, surprise.   The market seems unable to provide us with a standard 5-wave rally for the c-wave.  Instead, if the market is going to head higher in a more immediate sense, then this c-wave is taking shape as an ending diagonal.  Of course, if we break down below the noted wave 2 on the 5-minute SPX chart, then I will have to move into the alternative b-wave in blue.

Now, I want to remind you of something I said last week, which is still quite applicable and must be taken to heart and in the forefront of your mind:

"I want to remind everyone that we are dealing with 3-wave structures for the foreseeable future (unless of course we see a 5-wave decline from the resistance box overhead, signaling the red count).  So, if we are dealing with 3-wave structures, they are quite variable and they cause a lot of whipsaw.  So, I am proposing we could see another pullback to fill out a b-wave before we break out through resistance.”

But, overall, I am still very much in the same camp.  I am going to be very sensitive to a potential 5-wave decline from the resistance box overhead.  Should we see that, then I will likely be moving into the red count, which points us down to the 5000SPX region next. But, as along as all pullbacks remain corrective, I will continue looking higher.  And, once we are able to break out through the resistance box, then it makes it much more likely that the green count will carry us higher in the coming months.   Until that point, I will be exceptionally cautious.