Quick Update - Market Analysis for Jan 31st, 2024

The market is now below its micro support at 4899SPX.  Fed day's often see a lot of volatility.  So, I cannot be confident yet that we have truncated our top to wave (v) of v of 3.  We would need to break down below wave (iv) at 4866SPX to confirm that we are likely in wave 4. So, be a bit more patient and let's see if we see a stick save and one more attempt to get to the ideal target.

But, again, please be aware that support for wave 4 is in the 4741-4802SPX region.  We would be looking for an a-b-c structure into that support to suggest that wave 4 is completing and wave 5 can begin to 4997+.  

Of course, alternatively, a break down below 4740SPX opens the door to 4400-4600SPX region for the yellow b-wave.  And, should we drop quite strongly to that region, then it could signal that the entire rally off the 2020 low is done, as that would signal the end to an ending diagonal. For now, that is lower on my expectations.  I think IWM still suggests one more rally to be seen before a major top is struck.