Still Looking For One More Decline

While the market slightly breached yesterday’s high, I am maintaining a primary count that has today’s high as the 4^th wave of the [c] wave.   This means that my primary analysis is seeking an ideal 5-wave structure to complete this [c] wave of the a-wave.

But, as we know, the market does not always provide to us our ideal expectations.  Therefore, I have added an alternative count that suggests the low we struck on Monday completes the a-wave in a w-x-y pattern.  But, since w-x-y patterns are more rare, I am leaving that as our alternative.

The difference right now between the alternative and the primary is based upon today’s high.  As long as we remain below today’s high, and we do not see any impulsive rallies begin off this decline we are seeing into the end of the day, then pressure will remain down to complete a 5^th wave to this [c] wave of the red a-wave. However, if we begin an impulsive rally and take out today’s high, then I am going to view it as a c-wave of the purple [a] wave, within the larger degree b-wave bounce I am still very much expecting up towards the resistance/target box on the 60-minute SPX chart.

Should we get that 5^th wave lower low, the MACD on the 60-minute chart is set to provide us with a nice positive divergence, which is supporting my view of a bottom in this a-wave, and bolstering my expectation for a rally back towards the 5500+ region.

But, I do want to add one warning.  The decline off today's high is not the best of impulsive structures down, so please do not assume that the lower low is a slam dunk.  But, it still is my preference right now. 

As you can see, I am trying to keep this update as simple as possible for right now.