Still No Confirmation Of A Top
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Today we saw the SPX trade down slightly but still well over support on what is counting best as corrective wave action to the downside. So with that while the pattern remains potentially full on negative divergence on multiple timeframes without a break of support we still do not have any confirmation that we have put in a top just yet.
Furthermore the price action up off of the 11/19 low remains overlapping in nature and is still supportive that we are forming an ending diagonal to finish off the move off of that low. So when this does top the reversal back down towards that 11/19 low should be fairly sharp in nature. Of course, until we begin to break under support we still can continue to grind higher before that top is seen.
Smaller degree support sits at 5978-5840 on the ES. It would take a break of that region to suggest that we may have put in a local top. From there we still could see this move toward the larger degree support zone at the 5560-5570SPX region as part of the alternate blue count.
While this market continues to push higher the structure of how this move got to where it is remains quite precarious. So while we can still continue to grind higher as long a we remain over-support caution still remains warranted in this market.
