The Market Was Not Complicated Enough
By
Avi Gilburt
With the market now moving back and forth in the same range for over three months, and just when I thought it would not get any more complex, it has certainly added a new level of complexity due to the action in the futures on Sunday night.
With the futures dropping much more than what can be seen in the SPX, the futures have added another level of complexity with a potential b-wave triangle in the purple count, which I am showing on the ES chart. It would count the low on Sunday night as the bottom of the a-wave of the [e] wave, and today’s rally as the b-wave of the [e] wave.
But, it can still count as a i-ii structure in the green c-wave down in the ending diagonal potential for the c-wave of wave iv in green.
This now means that as long as we remain below Friday’s high, I am still going to be looking down. And, should that decline begin in an impulsive fashion, we will have to watch the structure very closely to determine the difference between wave iii in green and the c-wave in purple. And, we will likely be using the .618-.764 extensions down as our pivot to determine the difference between the two. As long as the market respects that pivot (and I cannot provide it yet since we do not have a confirmed top in place in today’s rally), then we will track it all the wave down for the c-wave of green wave iii. However, if the market drops down towards the 5945-5985ES region and then comes back up through the pivot impulsively, then I will likely be forced to change our view to the purple count.
So, to try to simplify this for now, as long as we remain below Friday’s high, I am going to continue to look down to the 5945-5985ES region. The manner in which we bounce from there will likely differentiate between the purple count and the green count. And, of course, should the market move directly through last Friday’s high from here, then we have to view us as rallying in the purple c-wave, but as an ending diagonal.
One way or another, we should finally be coming to the culmination of this sideways action, as a decision should be seen this week. We are running out of room.
