Well Over Support - Market Analysis for Dec 17th, 2024

With the market taking the opportunity to provide us with a [c] wave decline today, nothing has really changed in the overall picture.  We are still well over the upper support, and there is nothing outright bearish that I am seeing in the smaller degree structure.   In fact, this seems like a sideways consolidation typical of bull markets before another move higher.

Yet, as I have been noting, we still have a very full count to the upside.   So, if I am going to look higher in the coming days, I would like to see more of a set up telling me that this is the market’s intention.  

While I may be able to view the initial move off today’s low as a micro 5-wave structure, I would much prefer one larger degree 5-wave structure to suggest that we have begun a rally to 6150SPX.  However, should a follow through move to the upside instead take shape correctively, then I will fully expect a test of the upper-support level next.

Again, in the bigger picture, while I am expecting the market to top out in a major way, there is nothing that has told me yet that this is to be the case.  When an ending diagonal completes, we often see a strong reversal to the downside.  And, since we have not seen that, I still have to assume that the market has intentions on going higher before that major top may be struck.  Moreover, I until we actually break the alt iv support on our charts, I cannot view a long-term top as having yet been struck.  

So, overall, not much has changed, and we will still have to take this step by step as the market provides us further clues in the coming day.  For now, I do not see any clear indication that the market is going to break the upper support box just yet.  So, we may see a set up taking us higher first.  I am waiting for the clues.