What Does This Bounce Mean?

With the market seemingly trying to take us lower in a more direct fashion, it would seem the red diagonal count for the c-wave is what we are going to primarily follow.

Normally, the 3^rd wave in a diagonal targets the 1.236 extension of waves 1-2.  And, in truth, there are actually two ways I can count wave 1.  But, the more extended manner of counting wave 1 has us a bit shy of the 1.236 extension at the low this morning. So, it may be done already.

Now, since I need an alternative count, I have added an expanded flat for the b-wave, which is highlighted in yellow on the 5-minute chart.  And, the only way I can consider that as a reasonable count is if the rally off the low begins with an impulsive structure, as [c] waves are generally 5-wave structures.

And, the market is not making this terribly easy either.  You see, I can count a leading diagonal off the low in the futures, but I cannot get the same count in the SPX chart.  So, for now, I am going to leave the yellow count on the chart, but I am considering the red count as the primary count for now.

Lastly, I want to remind you again that until the market actually breaks down below the support box below us, the potential for a rally to the 6300-6500SPX region remains on the chart.  Remember that we have not seen the type of reaction we normally see when a diagonal completes, which leaves the door wide open for higher, as we do not have a signal that the diagonal has completed.