Recent Articles by Jason Appel

Bitcoin: Where On The Map?

Considering we are at almost the exact same price as last week's update it's safe to say that price has not "traveled" very far along the roadmap. As such, I'm going to keep this week's article quite brief to describe how the past week's micro action fits into the roadmap.
by Jason Appel - 5 days ago

Bitcoin: Refining our Roadmap for 2026

This decline is just too deep and too protracted to nicely align with a "base" for a direct rally to $200k+, though it remains a valid perspective.
by Jason Appel - 1 week ago

Bitcoin: How Much More Will Price Correct From The Highs?

Since last week's article Bitcoin's price declined strongly in impulsive fashion and as of this weekend's low in the $93.1k region it's quite clear that the primary expectations for a move down to $95k (or below) have been satisfied.
by Jason Appel - 3 weeks ago

Bitcoin: Back Under $100k? Check! But If You Blinked You May Have Missed It

In last week's 11/3 article I posited expectations for Bitcoin to decline under $100k. At the time, price was trading at roughly $108k, so it was hardly an outlandish call but the nearer term forecast laid out in the analysis was fulfilled in the past week with price following through to the downside and reaching a low on Tuesday in the $98.9k region.
by Jason Appel - 1 month ago

Bitcoin: Heading Back Below $100k?

Since last week's article, price topped in the noted resistance region and declined back into the middle of the trading range that's developed since the 10/17 low. Sans context, this action appears without any favor, whether up or down, to a particular resolution. However, in context, price's movement reasonably aligns with expectations laid out for downside to develop to take price back under $100k.
by Jason Appel - 1 month ago

Bitcoin: No Route Yet Selected

Price is stuck in a range that's developed since early July.
by Jason Appel - 1 month ago

Bitcoin: All Routes Are Still Open

In last week's update, four paths were shown for the near to medium term price action in Bitcoin. In this week's update we'll comment as to how price is "behaving" in terms of the four respective roadmaps.
by Jason Appel - 1 month ago

Bitcoin: 5 Weeks of Rallying Quickly Nixed and Establishing a Roadmap for the Next Several Weeks

Last week's article discussed Bitcoin's ambiguous stance due to price taking what was described as the lower probability path to new all-time highs vs a more direct trip to test below $100k. Additionally, the new all-time highs were not clearly rejected (initially) nor did Bitcoin resoundingly maintain the new highs.While we have gotten clarity that the current all-time high was not part of a new motive subwave, the manner in which Friday's flash-crash developed has left price once again in a relatively ambiguous posture.
by Jason Appel - 2 months ago

Bitcoin: Bull-Market Target Officially Reached Without Qualification and a Surprise to the Upside

While the lower timeframe action has certainly shifted, my larger degree interpretations remain relatively unchanged.
by Jason Appel - 2 months ago

Bitcoin: Setting Up For a Decline to Retest Support Below $100k

Over the month of September we've tracked a bounce from the upper support, with price having bottomed around $107.3k and the subsequent action has followed the expectations very nicely. The primary interpretation since price broke the highest support in late August was for an (a)-(b)-(c) decline into the $85k-$102k zone that's been outlined as the major support for prospective continuation of this bull market from the 2022 low.
by Jason Appel - 2 months ago

Bitcoin: Corrective Bounce or Something More, Pt2.

Last week's title, Bitcoin: Corrective Bounce or Something More? may have been a bit premature as this is the very same question we have this week.
by Jason Appel - 2 months ago

Bitcoin: The Waiting Continues

In last week's article, "Waiting" we discussed how BTC has formed a top of some significance but we have not yet determined whether this bull market cycle from the 2022 low has completed or whether price is taking a breather before another 100+% rally.
by Jason Appel - 3 months ago

Bitcoin: Waiting - Market Analysis for Aug 31st, 2025

What's worthy of novel discussion this week is the shorter timeframe action and how we have a change in character within the market.
by Jason Appel - 3 months ago

BTC: Top in Place, But Top of What?

In last week's article the title, "The Top?" pondered just that: whether Bitcoin had topped just shy of $124.3k.
by Jason Appel - 3 months ago

Layering Into A Position

There have been some questions of late about an EW-based approach to layering into a position so I thought I'd draft something more comprehensive.
by Jason Appel - 3 months ago

BTC: The Top?

In the past several weeks, I've endeavored to strike a balance between conveying lower timeframe bullishness amidst higher timeframe caution. In a simple way, the viewpoint has been that so long as price has respected the supports that have been provided here, the expectation would be for a sufficient number of waves to fill in to the upside and for price to reach $125k+. This past week has satisfied one of those conditions while averting the other.
by Jason Appel - 3 months ago

BTC: Do Sellers Have What It Takes?

Unless price breaks below $111.9k and gets follow-through to sustain below $110k, the overall expectation for a new all-time high remains the same.
by Jason Appel - 4 months ago

BTC: Nap Time Is Almost Over

At this point price is going on nearly 2 weeks of consolidation below the new all-time high struck on 7/14 but more importantly this consolidation is taking place above $110k.
by Jason Appel - 4 months ago

Bitcoin: Hovering in the Stratosphere

In last week's article we noted the forecasted potential "blastoff" from the previous articles had come about with Bitcoin's direct breakout to new all-time highs exceeding $123k. Considering price has now reached within 2% of the target from this move from the 2022 low, on the higher timeframe we can consider the target functionally achieved.
by Jason Appel - 4 months ago

Bitcoin Blastoff! - Market Analysis for Jul 13th, 2025

Last week's article's title, The Fakeout Thesis is on Thin Ice hinted at the interpretation of the lower timeframe action on Bitcoin becoming increasingly bullish.
by Jason Appel - 5 months ago

Bitcoin: The Fakeout Thesis Is On Thin Ice

The past week's price action has weakened the more immediately bearish case (black and purple counts), while concurrently strengthening the immediate bullish case (green count).
by Jason Appel - 5 months ago

Bitcoin: Blastoff or Fakeout?

Before I answer that question, it's important to note that ultimately, I don't see it as likely that Bitcoin has topped in the rally from the 2022 low.
by Jason Appel - 5 months ago

Approaching Levels For the Last Big Swing Long of the Cycle From 2022

Over this past week, Bitcoin has declined in a manner that's provided initial followthrough on the downside structure shown in last week's article. The key aspect here is that price has now breached the 6/5 low which invalidates the immediate upside that was shown in green.
by Jason Appel - 5 months ago

Is This Pullback The Last Swing Long Setup In This Bullish Cycle From 2022?

As of writing this article, the immediate bullish case for a direct move to $125k without a retest of the June low is still valid albeit rather unhealthy.
by Jason Appel - 5 months ago

BTC: Is it time for Hodl'ers to get cautious?

Though price action has been somewhat muted in term of upside strength in recent weeks, Bitcoin did break the January high in this past month (May) achieving a top of nearly $112k. While this is shy of the $125k minimum target we've had since the outset of this move from the 2022 low, the current high is only 11.5% below, which is quite near in terms of Bitcoin's volatility.
by Jason Appel - 6 months ago

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