Market Analysis for Jun 1st, 2023

Now ES 4230s NQ 14500s.

A few market participants you can visually see…

1) Shorts obligated to cover/cannot take more pain. Forced hands/margin calls into EOD close

2) Late buyers forced to chase, didnt buy at 4170s, didnt but at 4180s, didnt buy at 4190s and a few lost souls going all in at 4230s nearing the Monday high. Same with NQ nearing the 14500s/14570 Monday high spot.

3) active trend traders bought the dips/LOD, buying all day, like us reaping the rewards off of the momentum

For educational purposes. Remember the most important parts I mentioned in my nightly report, review below

• During Tuesday-Wednesday, we got the anticipated consolidation and so far buyers have held well against our pre-determined key trending supports 

• Given Wednesday’s sticksave at 4174 (low of day), it is a confluence between the trending daily 20EMA + our 4180 key level/area, we expect more bullish continuation into end of this week. If you recall, this has been the typical structure where the market consolidates early week and pumps higher into a new weekly closing print. ( past couple weeks)  Let’s see this recent pattern continues to play out

• 4200-4180 could be a small chop zone that gets decided after Europe or USA opens
• 1)  If RTH opens above or sustains ES 4200, we expect responsive buyers to lift this  towards  4212/4225/4238/4250
• Any break above 4238 could open up vertically acceleration mode into 4300 target

• 2) If RTH opens below or sustains below 4180, be aware of bigger retracement to 4165/4150 where the latter was last week’s must hold level on a daily closing basis
• Any break below 4150 would put this current breakout in jeopardy and open a large bull trap/elevator down scenario
• In general, the closer we get into ES 4300, the more cautious and nimble you need to be as a trader/investor as the risk/reward becomes suboptimal for longs unless a massive breakout occurs. Being aware of the risks involved here because we’ve been using 4200-4300 as a potential yearly range high for 5 months, since I wrote my first Jan 2023 nightly report. Go back and read for yourself, not much has changed

• Bonus: NQ 13950-14000 will be a key daily-weekly contention support zone moving forward, given the breakout acceleration mode from NQ/tech land. Also, use Monday’s 14570 rejection as immediate resistance to gauge momentum/digestion. (above 14570 leads to more acceleration higher, vice versa when below, digestion not over)