Bigger Picture Looks Better Than Smaller One

The title just about says it all right now.   As I have been highlighting of late, the divergences seen on the daily GDX and GLD charts would normally have me pounding the table on the long side.   However, I still do not have a solid 5-wave structure in place off those lows for me to confident about such table pounding.  And, that is really the whole story right now.

As we can see in the GDX, we still have not even taken out the micro pivot.   That will be necessary, followed by holding over that on all pullbacks in order to complete a more appropriate 5-wave rally structure to suggest the low is in place.

Silver still does not have a fully completed wave [1] either.  But, we can continue to give it some room to do so.   Yet, if we see a 5-wave decline at any point in time, we have to prepare for a deeper drop into the support box.

And, as far as GLD is concerned, the overlapping structure does not give me a lot of confidence that the next rally has begun yet.  Rather, I would need to see green wave 1 completed, followed by a CLEARLY corrective wave 2 pullback to assume we have begun a move to new highs.

So, for now, the bigger picture looks like we have bottomed, but we still have no smaller degree evidence to support that perspective.

In the much bigger picture, as I have outlined many times, the GLD chart still has me strongly in the bullish camp, and expecting much higher highs to be struck before wave [5] is completed, along with the cycle off the 2015/2016 lows.