Bitcoin: The Last Opportunity of 2025

I used my last article to warn you about a coming bear market in Bitcoin. I took up my keyboard because I noticed the crypto market sentiment regarding the Trump presidency was reaching new levels of silliness. In essence, many talking heads in the space used Trump’s positive stance on crypto to suggest that the bull cycle was just beginning. Yet Bitcoin has already made a 400% run in price over two years. 

I don’t mean to be unappreciative regarding Trump’s pro-Bitcoin stance. His has abolished an enforcement regime against the industry that was not based in the rule of law. More particularly frustrating to me was the wanton unbanking of companies in the space, making it hard to do business with companies that I have had for years. That unbanking threat has also been extended to me by certain banks when they found out I was in the industry. 

Crypto climbed in 2022 to 2023 under a decidedly anti-crypto administration. I suppose the reasoning goes that if Bitcoin printed a 400% return during the Biden administration, it surely will accelerate once Trump is in office. Is that a reasonable expectation? 

It is my 20 years trading markets that teach me that who is in the White House matters little to investment returns. This should much more be the case with Bitcoin returns, and asset that is purported to be a state-resistant form of money. 

Further, as stated in my last article, the best news often occurs at tops. 

It seems I was partially correct in my article. January 20, 2025, the date of Trump’s inauguration, marked the 2025 top, so far.. Bitcoin fell 30% from January 20th  to the low on March 11th, the morning of the day I am writing this article. 

I was partially correct because I wrote that I expected the bear market to start after Bitcoin reaches $125K. So, I am here writing today to say I still hold to that target, until my key support breaks, which I will share below. That means that this 30% drop provides an opportunity, perhaps the last in 2025. 

So let’s dive into how price structure looks today. 

An Unfinished Fifth 

In my last article, I left you with a chart that showed a fifth wave that was in progress off of Bitcoin’s low in the $50Ks made in August of 24th. And in that fifth, the third (circle-iii) had topped and circle-iv was in progress. Four days after the article was posted, Bitcoin formed its 2025 top at ~$109,300. 

Those that have only a basic understanding of the Elliott Wave theory may perceive that that top was a top in circle-v and the entire bullish cycle missed my target of $125K. That hat is possible. Sometimes, fifth waves are weak. However, most fifth waves, particularly in Bitcoin, measure at least 61.8% in log of the preceding third. That would have placed the top in the $138K region. It would take a sustained break below $69K to suggest to me that I should consider Bitcoin posted a week fifth. Instead, I find it more probable that that top formed as a B wave in an ongoing circle-iv. B waves in flat corrections that break over the previous high are very common in Bitcoin. 

As you can see in my chart, we are getting very close to a more complete circle-iv in this region. Fibonacci-based support for this fourth is $72K. Fibonacci support levels are less reliable in a diagonal, which is the structure I ascribe to the fifth wave out of $50K. However, $69K marks the bottom of the B wave of circle-iii. Rarely, the fourths in diagonals in Bitcoin break that level. Technically, the fourth isn’t invalid until it breaks the second wave at $52,500, a level I called out in my last article. 

In short, I consider the zone between $69K and $83K, where Bitcoin sits as of writing as the opportunity zone. Ideally, we see one more low near $75K. However, as of writing, if Bitcoin forms five waves to $88K, I will assume the bottom is in. 

Trading the Zone

In my articles, I discuss how I use price regions determined as support to scale into my trades. If the price is at the higher end of a support region, I keep my position light until a more sure reversal forms. As price drops deeper into support and closer to my stop, I can size up with lower risk. I will stop out upon a sustained break below $69K.

I press the gas once I see five waves out of support and see the first pullback off that five-wave structure. That is because the risk level tightens up with that reversal, making pressing the accelerator panel less risky. 

To remind you, I shared in January that my overall exposure to the crypto sector is reduced. But this last great opportunity in 2025 is compelling enough to size up again briefly. 

Conclusion

In closing, I remind you that a crypto bear market is coming. Despite fresh positive winds in the political scene toward the industry, the bull market we enjoyed for over two years is coming to close, ideally when Bitcoin reaches $125K. That said, the correction in Bitcoin that started late last year should provide the basis for a low-risk trade from here to that bull market top. Those who take this trade should keep an eye on $69K, which, if breached, warns that the bear market came sooner rather than later.