DXY and Euro, long term outlook


DXY: The index has reached the ideal target for wave 3, and I consider this part of the decline complete. While a minor extension to the 98.8 region is still possible, overall I anticipate a bounce soon.

Possible target for wave 4 is outlined on the Micro chart. As long as the 104.50 region is not decisively breached, the current count remains a high-probability scenario.

I've re-posted the weekly chart to highlight the larger-degree outlook: I anticipate an eventual extension down to the 95.96 region before the wave circle 4 is complete. The extended downside target is 91. However, until the 91 region is clearly broken, the next major leg to the upside  - wave circle 5  - is expected to reach the 130 area, and this is my view of a multi year perspective for the Dollar.

EURUSD: Wave 3 on the Option 2 charts appears to be complete. Possible target for the correction in wave 4 is outlined on the chart. This count remains applicable unless the pullback breaks below the 1.0842 support region.

The Option 1D Linear count is considered a much less likely alternative at this stage.

I've also re-posted the weekly chart with projected target areas for the ongoing rally. Please note the accompanying monthly chart, which presents a simplified multi-year scenario for the Euro. That said, this scenario is not high-confidence, and I currently have no clear target for the circle C-wave of the blue b-wave.

EURUSD - Option 2D Linear - Apr-11 0836 AM (1 day)
EURUSD - Option 2D Linear - Apr-11 0836 AM (1 day)
EURUSD - Option 1W Linear - Apr-11 0835 AM (1 week)
EURUSD - Option 1W Linear - Apr-11 0835 AM (1 week)
DXY - Option 1 Micro Log - Apr-11 0834 AM (1 hour)
DXY - Option 1 Micro Log - Apr-11 0834 AM (1 hour)
EURUSD - Option 2 Micro Linear - Apr-11 0839 AM (1 hour)
EURUSD - Option 2 Micro Linear - Apr-11 0839 AM (1 hour)
DXY - Option 1W Log - Apr-11 0834 AM (1 week)
DXY - Option 1W Log - Apr-11 0834 AM (1 week)
DXY - Option 1D Log - Apr-11 0834 AM (1 day)
DXY - Option 1D Log - Apr-11 0834 AM (1 day)
EURUSD - Option 1M Linear - Apr-11 0834 AM (1 month)
EURUSD - Option 1M Linear - Apr-11 0834 AM (1 month)
EURUSD - Option 1D Linear - Apr-11 0835 AM (1 day)
EURUSD - Option 1D Linear - Apr-11 0835 AM (1 day)
Arkady Yakhnis provides extensive coverage on precious metals, energy, and forex at ElliottWaveTrader.


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