GDX Is Positioned Bearishly

As per the title, we seem to have an immediate bearish posture being presented in GDX.  Whereas I am still uncertain as to whether the yellow count will take us below the support box on the 8-minute chart, the structure does seem to suggest we had an initial 5-wave decline (a/1), followed by a corrective bounce (b/2).  Therefore, as long as we remain below last week’s high, I am certainly favoring the downside in the near term.  

Of course, if GDX can break out over the high struck last week, it would invalidate this set up, and open the door to the blue count on the daily chart.

GLD is really a big question right now.  The decline we have seen is not clearly impulsive beyond what a c-wave in a wave iv would suggest. And, if we begin to break out through the 273 region, then it would seem the blue count is going to carry us forward, as presented on the 60-minute GLD chart.  We would need to break down below 264 to bring either the green or yellow paths to the forefront with a much higher probability.

Silver is kind of caught in between these two paths.  I may be able to count 5 waves down completed today, with the bounce being a corrective 2^nd wave.  But, I must admit this count is not ideal.  Yet, I cannot say that the rally we have seen this week in silver has been clearly impulsive, as I believe it best counts as a 3-wave corrective rally.   

So, as long as silver remains below yesterday’s high, I have to view it as having an immediate bearish set up.  While I would not classify that set up as being of the highest probability, it certainly warrants caution if you are long.

From the long side in silver, I really have nothing reliable with which to work.  So, for these reasons, I am certainly leaning more bearish than bullish in the near term for now.