GDX Potential Top - Market Analysis for Oct 29th, 2015

With the GDX now slightly breaking our box support, I want to explain what I will be looking for.  Ideally, I am looking for a 5 wave move down towards the purple wave I, followed by a wave ii relatively high bounce.  Of course, due to the manner in which this decline began I cannot rule out that this 5th wave down will take the shape of an ending diagonal.  But, for now, we have to consider that the market may have topped in the 4th wave lower than we wanted to see, and may be starting its final run to lower lows.  Breaking below the 1.382 extension down at 14.84 should seal the deal.

Lastly, if we get the purple set up, it means that the 9 region will be struck as the low, unless we are dealing with an ending diagonal, which still leaves the door open for the 11 region low.