Gold Looks Toppy - Market Analysis for Apr 2nd, 2025
By
Avi Gilburt
No, I am not outright bearish of gold. But, I have to point out that it is really looking toppy right now, after quite a nice extension. And, with the MACD on the 60-minute rolling over, well, I really am not sure how much juice this has left in the tank to extend higher.
As I noted earlier this week, I would need a sustained break-down below the 284/85 GLD support before we have our first signal that a top of some sort has been struck.
For now, I am going to view that top as wave 4 within the c-wave of [v] of v of [3]. However, I would not be shocked if the alternative count takes shape, and the next pullback is actually wave [4].
GDX still has not indication that a top has been struck, and can continue to extend in the green count. But, the negative divergences I am seeing on the daily chart do concern me a bit. But, as long as we remain over 43.50, I can continue to look higher. Also, I have no 5-wave decline in place to suggest that the yellow c-wave is taking hold. So, for now, I will continue to look higher as long as we are over 43.50.
With that being said, I noted in my live video this morning to the full-time members that, as of today, I have begun to trim my long positions in mining stocks. While my first sale was several years ago when I sold NEM (my largest holding by far) in the 82 region, I am now selling other mining stocks that are hitting their 3rd waves highs, or that are approaching the targets I set years ago. I will still be holding at least 50% of my positions (not taking into account the NEM sales from years ago). If you want to see which ones are approaching their 3rd wave highs, feel free to review the charts in our Metals, Mining and Agriculture service.
Also consider that I am likely much more conservative than most of you and most of my accounts have reached the targets I set for moving to the sidelines with cash for my retirement. So, there are other considerations for what I am now doing.
As far as silver is concerned, I still believe we will see a major rally in silver before this long-term bull market in metals concludes. And, I am not seeing anything right now that would suggest we are about to see a break out in silver. In fact, the yellow count is starting to sway me at this time. Of course, I would like to be proven wrong about that, but I am not seeing anything yet that is strongly suggestive of the breakout yet. But, I am keeping my eyes and mind open. Should I see something that changes that perspective, I will be sure to alert you.
