How Soon Can Silver Break Out?

As you know, I have been following silver quite closely, and looking for a potential 5^th wave lower low to complete a larger c-wave of its wave [2].  And, the market has presented us with several opportunities to take us down into the 19-20 region.  Yet, each set up thus far has failed. Today, we may have seen another such failure.

When the market fails to take advantage of set ups several times, it often is a message that it may not take any more opportunities to drop down to a lower low.  So, I am going to remain quite vigilant for the potential that the market may want to break to the upside in wave [iii] within wave i off the lows, as presented in green on the 144-minute silver chart.   And, if we now break out over the 22.56, we may see a strong 3^rd wave take control to the upside.

Clearly, the market now needs to break down below today’s low and the pivot outlined on the 8-minute chart to avoid that break out potential, and still potentially point us to a lower low.  But, when we have seen several set ups attempt to take us lower, with each one failing thus far, then we have to be aware that the market may be telling us the low is already in place for wave [2] in silver.

Now, if the bottom is indeed in place for the metals complex, then it likely means that both GDX and GLD will continue to rally higher alongside silver, but they will likely both remain in diagonal patterns.  But, keep in mind that diagonal patterns are not easily tradeable.

In the meantime, I am still going to be watching silver quite intently, as it has been providing us with the strongest signals of late.