Lacking Clarity - Market Analysis for Mar 26th, 2025

I wish I could say that the metals were providing us with a clear signal at this time.  But, since silver and GDX had the opportunity to break out in a more direct fashion and have thus far failed to do so, it has brought a bit more uncertainty to the near term.

First, let’s outline gold.  As you can see from the attached 8-minute GC chart, there is no clear impulsive rally off this week’s low.  This leads me to view the bounce as being a b-wave, with the expectation of a c-wave decline yet to be seen to fill in the rest of the wave [iv].  

Now, let’s look at the GDX chart.  The micro-structure is not providing any real clarity.  Ideally, we really should have seen a break-out in the more immediate bullish potential to the 50/51 region.  But, since I have no clear 5-wave decline yet seen, I am still leaving the door open for this to take hold.  However, should I see a clear 5-wave decline take shape in the coming days or week, then I will have to move into the yellow count.  

I have a similar issue in silver.  We really should have seen a break-out based upon the count I have been tracking.   But, silver is a bit more complex than even GDX.  Whereas GDX would make the yellow count clear by a 5-wave decline, silver’s alternative in yellow would be an a-b-c pullback, which may have already begun.  So, it leaves us more in limbo in silver than with either GDX or GLD.  

For now, I have no reason to be aggressively bullish or bearish at this time.   The smaller degree is not providing much clarity.  But, GLD does suggest that there is a bit more likelihood to see a little more weakness in the coming days.