Metals Update - Market Analysis for Sep 12th, 2022

With the push higher in silver, I have to update you on my perspective.  This is really looking like it’s a bit too much to be a 4^th wave bounce.  Therefore, I have to consider that the bottom has been struck.   Yet, when I review the micro structure on the smaller degree chart, I have a hard time coming up with a wave count that clearly has 5-waves down into the low.

Now, for those that have been hearing me loudly and clearly, this region has been representing a major bottoming in my humble opinion.  But, at the same time, I did not have a clear signal to begin to aggressively play the long side.  

Therefore, I would like to see what happens in the event silver is able to complete a 5-wave structure a bit higher.  Will it be an expanded wave [iv] flat?  Or will that begin a 1-2 break out scenario?  I do not have the answer just yet.  But, if we do get the 1-2 break out scenario, then I will be looking to play the long side aggressively in the metals complex.  For now, I remain a bit skeptical.

GDX causes me the same angst when it comes to whether it has bottomed.  I have a hard time getting a clean 5 waves down into the recent lows.  

But, GLD is still looking extremely corrective off the lows - - at least thus far.   So, this still leaves me with reasonable support for looking towards a lower low before this is done.

Yet, I want to remind you again – it is likely that we are in a major bottoming phase in the metals complex, especially when you consider that this pullback has been going on for two and a half years.  Whether we get that lower low or not at this point should be academic to long term investors.  But, for those that are trying to trade this market more aggressively, I still do not have a clear set up in order to play the long side more aggressively just yet.   But, we are certainly getting very close.