Micro Five Waves Up This Week
By
Avi Gilburt
With the metals holding where they should, over the last two days we have seen them complete 5 waves up off the low. This puts a bullish spin on the charts right now.
As you can see from the GC chart, there is a reasonable count for a wave [i] of 5. And, as long as we hold over this week’s low, and then take out today’s high, I am looking for a rally up towards the blue box overhead.
In GDX, the 8-minute chart shows the micro pivot which needs to be taken out over the coming week, and then held as support for wave iv of [iii]. This should then continue higher to complete wave [1] of 3, as can be seen on the daily chart.
Silver actually has the cleanest 5 waves up off this week’s low, which you can see on the 8-minute chart. Therefore, as long as we hold the blue box of support for a wave 2 pullback, and then break back over the wave 1 high, I would expect us to be heading towards the larger degree pivot noted on the 144-minute chart. And, that would provide us with a [i][ii][1][2] bullish structure over the coming weeks, and set up a melt-up scenario in silver once we break back over the high of wave [1].
In the smaller degree, silver dropped down to the .236 retracement of wave 1, which is typical of an a-wave. We then bounced in what seems to be a b-wave, and I would like to see us follow through to the downside in the c-wave towards the .382 retracement of wave 1 in the 23 region and the top of the blue box. The only question then will be if this is all of wave 2, or just the [a] wave of wave 2. I am going to assume it will be all of wave 2 unless we see a corrective rally off the low struck when the c-wave completes.
In summary, the structure is showing us some very bullish indications. For now, we want to see the market follow through over this week’s high, which will likely set up a final 1-2 structure across the charts, which when triggered – likely at the end of the year or early next year – will signal a melt-up phase in the metals complex, which will likely last through 2024.
