Nightly Crypto Report: Patience Counts

Patience Counts

Long Term:

Intermediate views are included in Sunday's reports.

Housekeeping:

NA

Micro:

General

Patience is a virtue as Bitcoin continues to work through wave two. On the board today I offered a pep talk. I wrote: 

I am going to double down on this in the next few days. We have a nice setup in Bitcoin. Buying into wave 2s go against the basic inclinations of humans. And that is why wave threes are powered by chasers that got off the train at wave-2. While I can never say that a wave 2 holds, they provide the greatest reward potential and often the speediest. I don't want this confused with a recommendation to take a trade. Some of you are all ready well positioned. However, be very conscious of all the voices that tell you not to buy the dip. Turn it into a game of math. We have the risk of $56K breaking, though that looks unlikely, while we have the potential of a run to $88K plus. Here that is risking $10K for $20K, and if you wait for lower that improves immensely. I always choose to scale in, since nailing the bottom is problematic. Just work the math in accordance to your own risk tolerance. 

Bitcoin

Bitcoin continues to work through circle-ii with support at $57K. I expect it to hit $63,375 at least, and that level may only give it a b-wave bounce. Wave twos are occasionally more shallow but I see nothing in price action to expect that yet.

Zooming in, I see a possible five-wave structure in this (a), though I still prefer that it extend toward $63,375. However, five waves suggest a b-wave bounce can commence anytime. 

Ethereum

Ether seems to have confirmed a B wave top. If so, the C wave will push support at $2955. However, B waves are notoriously slippery, and subdivision higher is not impossible. And that would be healthy since Ether could use more room for its C wave. 

ETHBTC

ETHBTC has formed a small bounce after a brief breach of support. It must fill in five waves over 0.052 to indicate a low is likely.

Spot Conversion

As an experiment, I have changed this section to the conversion numbers for the Bitcoin ETFs so you can use my Bitcoin chart to manage your positions. Note these numbers are to the third decimal place. Two shares with the same conversion may vary slightly in price due to a difference in the 5th and great decimal place.

BITO: 0.0004 (rechecked and affirmed on July 3, 2024)

ARKB: 0.001

GBTC: 0.0009

DEFI: 0.0012

EZBC: 0.0006

HODL: 0.0011

IBIT: 0.0006

BRRR: 0.0003

BTCO: 0.001

BTCW: 0.0011

FBTC: 0.0009

BITB: 0.0005