No Confirmation Of A Bottom Yet
By
Avi Gilburt
As I have been saying, I am going to be watching the very bullish set ups VERY closely. And, a break out in the NEM is going to be a strong signal to me that the market is ready to transition into its next bullish phase. However, until that happens, I am going to continue to treat bounces as corrective. And, that seems what this recent bounce was.
Now, if I am going to put my bullish glasses back on, I will again focus on the GDXJ and view this bounce as the 4th wave of the c-wave down, with this decline now being seen as the 5th wave. But, I am now going to need to see an impulsive structure off the low move us through the 39.50 region to suggest this has bottomed.
As far as silver is concerned, it has potential to have already bottomed, as I can count a micro 5 waves off the last lows. But, those micro structures are not the most reliable. So, I am going to wait for the market to provide us with a solid 5 wave structure for wave i of (5) of 3 before I get very bullish again. Support below us is in the 17-17.50 region.
As far as GLD and GDX are concerned, I have the same issues with both of them that I have been having of late. Neither provides the clearest of micro structures, so I will likely rely more so on the other charts I am tracking. But, the one thing I can say about them is that I really have no clean way of counting a 5-wave structure off either of their recent lows. So, I will continue to treat this bounce in both products as corrective unless the complex tells me otherwise.
Lastly, I have no clean 5-wave structure off the lows in NEM, which means that we can reasonably expect at least one more spike lower to complete wave (ii). Clearly, should we move strongly through the 41 region, that is the market telling me otherwise, and I will be listening quite intently.
For now, I have no clear indications that the complex has bottomed. But, how it rallies off the next lows it strikes in the various charts will be quite instructive as to how soon we can expect to move into the next bullish phase in the market. But, for now, I remain protective of my positions.
