Silver Has To Make A Decision
By
Avi Gilburt
While we do have enough waves in place to consider that gold, GDX and NEM have potentially completed 5 waves up off the recent lows, silver still has not.
In fact, as the market stands right now, silver struck a 1.00 downside extension today which could represent an a=c corrective structure for wave 4 in the more immediate bullish pattern. But, that means we will need to see it turn up impulsive very soon and complete wave 5 of i in the coming days.
However, we have the pivot noted on the 8-minute chart to contend with. If you remember you Fib Pinball, wave 3 of iii targets the 1.00-1.236 extensions of waves i-ii, and then usually bounces back to the .618-.764 extensions (the pivot) in wave 4 of iii. If the pivot holds as resistance, then we will drop down to the target for wave iii, and I think we will likely target the lower end of the box in this case. But, if the market can move through the pivot in impulsive fashion in the next day or so, then it likely means we are heading higher for wave 5 of i.
So, silver has to make a decision right now. And, that will determine if we are going to drop in the c-wave of wave 2 (as can be seen on the 144-minute chart), or if we are going to be developing the break out i-ii set up sooner rather than later.
In the meantime, NEM is approaching its pivot, and it can still push a bit higher before this wave is complete. And, as long as the next pullback is clearly corrective, then we will have a 1-2, i-ii set up developing in NEM as well.
As you can see on the GDX chart, I have added a 2nd wave target box for the next pullback. So, as long as the next pullback is clearly corrective, we have a big break out set up also developing in GDX. And, based upon the size of this [1][2], it begins to make it more likely that we are going to break out in the more accelerate upper channel on the daily chart.
There is another point I want to make about the gold/GC charts. I am not yet certain that they have completed this wave [i] of v yet, as it can still extend a little higher. But, due to the size of this wave [i], I have modified my targets on the daily GLD chart higher, as this would be projecting a much bigger wave v of [3] compared to my prior expectations. In fact, I think we can even head to the upper segment of the ellipse on the daily chart for wave v of [3]. But, I still would likely to see a corrective pullback take shape first in the coming week or two.
Ultimately, we are on the cusp of a broad metals market rally, wherein both silver and the miners will likely be finally joining gold in the next move higher I expect in the 2nd half of 2024. So, please make sure you are keeping your eyes on the forest and not focusing on the leaves. Pullbacks are buying opportunities and not shorting opportunities. Please stay focused.
