Silver Having “Issues”

When we came into this week, I was expecting a rally in the metals complex.   

In GLD, I really did not expect to see much as under both my paths, I was looking for a corrective rally in either an a-wave of the 5^th wave, as presented in green, or in a corrective b-wave before another c-wave down in a more protracted 4^th wave.  So, we knew coming in that the GLD rally will not likely tell us much about how the nature of this rally.

In GDX, the market is still well within its potential to complete 5 waves up, as we have 4 waves in place right now.   And, as I write this early in the morning, it looks like GDX is attempting to begin that 5^th wave higher.  So, this is a positive sign.

Yet, silver seems to be lagging.  I really do not have a strong indication that it is attempting a 5-wave rally.  My general view would be that this is a corrective rally.  Of course, the rally may morph into a leading diagonal, or maybe even a series of 1’s and 2’s off the low.   However, I cannot say that this is a reliable trading cue for me.

So, unfortunately, it does not provide to me any solid cues for wanting to get aggressively long in anything other than maybe GDX, based upon whether we can complete this 5 waves up, and then see a corrective retrace.

Yet, I want to reiterate that the larger degree picture has not changed.  I do not believe that this larger degree bullish pattern has completed. And, as I outlined in my presentation here in New Orleans, I am still expecting a multi-month consolidation/pullback in 2025 which will likely set up the final parabolic rally before this rally completes.  So, I still am expecting much higher levels to be struck before I am ready to turn cautious in the metals complex in the bigger picture.