SportsMood NFL: SF SEA
By
December 29, 2019
Summary: In the grand finale of the 2019 regular season, the 49ers visit the Seahawks in a showcase of mastery. San Francisco has something to prove this season, the Seahawks are playing in Seattle… and that means home field advantage. The 49ers may be overly edgy or amped up, but this will cost them in penalties. Further, they may be a bit “porous” and allow a few key plays to slip by them. Seattle will demonstrate their skills at both ground and air attacks, and come away the victor.
|
|
SportsMood |
Consensus Odds* |
|---|---|---|
|
Game Winner |
SEA |
SF -170 (63%) |
|
Handicap |
SF +3 |
SEA +3 |
|
Total Points |
No edge vs 47 detected |
47 |
*Average bookmaker odds at time of publication
In-Game Windows of Opportunity
Point Spread SF+23 (79%)
Point Spread SEA+28.5 (63%)
Total Points Over 36.5 (71%)
Total Points Under 55.5 (71%)
What the numbers mean:
The consensus odds have the 49ers installed as a 63% favorite to win the game, giving the Seahawks a 3 point handicap. SportsMood sees sees the Seahawks having the edge for winning the game, and would give the 49ers 3 points.
There is a good chance (63%) that if San Fransisco wins the game, they won’t win by more than 28.5 points. This is relevant if the 49ers take an early lead and the in-game odds move to give the Seahawks 28.5 or more points.
If Seattle does win the game, there is a very good chance (79%) they will win by no more than 23 points. This is relevant if the Seahawks take an early lead and the in-game odds move to give the 49ers 23 or more points.
If scoring is sluggish in the beginning of the game and the Total Points line moves to as low as 36.5, there’s a 71% chance the scoring will pick up and go over this number. Conversely, if there is a lot of scoring to start the game and the Total Points line moves to as high as 55.5, there is a 71% chance scoring will slow and go under this number.
Performance:
Our average success rate for NFL for last season was about 59% for calling the winning team and 62% for our handicap being on the winning side of the consensus point spread. There is no data for over/under total points calls for last season. For the 2019-2020 season thus far, we’re averaging 56% for calling the winning team, 61% against the spread, and 63% for over/under total points.
Relative Stat Projections – Supplemental Charts:
For the Extremely Curious:
Methodology: The game projection above was based on sentiment analysis of 8 mood qualities (the same 8 used for MarketMood) found in each team’s public presentation and expression in the days prior to the game as posted in team social media. The included charts were built from correlations found with relative amounts of these 8 qualities in team sentiment prior to the game, and are relevant for this game only.
Data collection and analysis by Daniel Reader.
Note: this is being shared with the excitement of presenting our cutting edge research in systems and the relationship between sentiment and near future events. No inference should be made as to endorsement of gambling or wagering on sports events, and whether or not that is suitable for any individual.
