Still Missing A Wave

Well, if you have been following along, you would know that we are awaiting a 5-wave rally off a low to provide us with a major break-out set up in the metals complex.  And, thus far, both gold and silver seem to be lacking that 5^th wave, as you can see from the various charts.

Starting with gold, I would have to say we are now completing wave 4.  And, as long as we hold 1955, I am still looking for that 5^th wave higher, as you can see on the attached 60-minute GC chart.

What you will also notice on that chart is the pivot box.  Normally, wave i of [3] targets the .382-.618 extensions of waves [1][2].  And, the .618 extension is the bottom of the pivot.  The top of the pivot represents the .764 extension of waves [1] and [2].   And, once we move through that pivot, then it makes it likely that we are in wave iii of [3].  But, for now, I am looking for the market to approach the pivot to complete wave i, thereafter to be followed by a corrective wave ii pullback.

Should the market complete this set up in the coming weeks, then it will put me on a break-out-alert.  And, should we then take out the high of wave i, that puts us in a melt-up situation, which can be better seen on the daily GLD chart attached.

Silver is also struggling to complete its 5 waves up too.  But, I can count it similar to gold, as it is trying to complete its 4^th wave pullback. But, please keep in mind, a failure to get that 5^th wave higher high leaves the yellow alternative count on the chart for now.  And a break down below 21.90 before we get that 5^th wave higher high would suggest the yellow 5 is taking shape.  

Now, GDX is a bit more of an issue. We are still woefully short of its .618 extension.  So, I am assuming we are developing as a [i][ii] structure within its wave [1], which actually projects to the top of the pivot on the daily chart.  And, as long as we hold the support box noted on the 8-minute GDX chart, I have reason to continue to look higher for now.   Taking out the high of wave [i] should set this chart up for a big catch-up move.

So, for now, I am still in a wait-and-see mode.  I want to see a 5^th wave higher completed in both silver and gold before I begin to go on break-out-alert.  Should this set up develop in the coming weeks, then it portends a major bullish move in the metals complex for 2024.  But, please do not get FOMO.  Allow the set up to develop before we get too excited.