Still No Clear Bottom In Metals
By
Avi Gilburt
While I have been trying to track a small 5-wave rally off the recent low struck in silver, I have to counter-balance that with the lack of clear indication that an ending diagonal had been struck. So, should we be striking a bottom to a 2nd wave pullback in silver, I am going to be looking for a very micro 5-wave rally taking us back towards the 22 region for wave 1, as shown on the 8-minute chart. Should we get that 1-2 structure in the coming days, you could have an aggressive long trade with a stop set at wherever we bottom right now, assuming we do bottom.
But, I want to note that in order to convince me that silver is about to see a larger degree break out, I am going to need to complete waves [3][4] and [5] to the 23.50-24 region to suggest that a i-ii, 1-2 is taking shape in silver on the 144-minute chart. So, PLEASE do not get overly aggressive to early. We need to have this set up in place before we consider such posture.
Not much has changed in GDX, as it has simply been “leaking” lower, with further divergences having developed on its smaller degree time frames. And, in the same way was noted in silver, we need to see a solid 5-wave rally for wave [i] before we can begin to plan a more aggressive long posture.
On the attached 8-minute GC chart, I have added a [1][2] structure notation on the chart. But, as I outlined in the weekend update, the wave [1] has issues, and this wave [2] does not really look complete. So, this chart is a bit less clear at this time, as it can certainly still get one more nominally lower low before a rally begins. But, should we begin a rally in this posture, then a fuller 5-wave move would be pointing us to 1900+ before we would begin to plan aggressive trades to the long side.
So, overall, there are some indications that the market is trying to bottom out in here, but not much more than that. Should silver give us a 5 wave move off a local low here, then we may have a small trade set up in the coming days. Other than that, I am still in a wait-and-see mode before I get more aggressive in the complex.
