Still Some Room – But Have An Eye For The Door
By
Avi Gilburt
Gold has been on an absolute tear of late. And, while these types of moves get people so excited and interested in gold, they often are seen towards the end of a move rather than the start of a new move when we are this late in the cycle.
If you remember, I set our secondary target for this bull market in gold to the $3400 region. And, we have almost attained that target. So while I still believe that we have one more [4][5] structure to complete before this long-term cycle concludes, you must at least consider the potential that we may be concluding it even earlier than I had expected. Hence, the “alt-top” in red on my GLD chart. But, for now, I am still keeping the [4][5] as my primary count.
Within the concluding squiggles of wave [3], we completed a minor 4th wave pullback into the upper support region box highlighted on the 60-minute chart, and we are now seeing quite a sizeable extension in wave 5. I am assuming that the pullback low seen earlier this week completed wave iv within this wave 5, which means we are likely in wave v of 5. And, since the Elliott Wave construct only goes up to 5 waves, well, it suggests that it is likely we are coming to an end to this rally.
Of course, we need to see confirmation that this strong move has concluded before we are going to turn our attention as being likely within wave [4], so I will need to see a break down below the .382 retracement level – outlined by the red line on the 60-minute chart – with follow through below the wave iv low in the 294 region. When that occurs, my assumption is we will drop to a larger degree .382 retracement for wave [4], which I approximate right now is in the 255 region.
GDX is likely still being driven by NEM, and I still think NEM has further room to the upside before it completes its [c] wave rally. And, as long as we remain over 49, I am still continuing to look higher in NEM. Therefore, this ca continue to drive GDX to the next Fib level in the 55 region, followed y the 60 region thereafter.
Silver is still the biggest question mark on the map. As I explained in the live video this morning, the move up just does not fit a standard 5-wave structure for silver for various reasons. Please review the video for specifics as to what I mean. So, I still have to maintain a view of a potential swoon still pointing us to a lower low in this correction, which is now a w-x-y path presented in yellow. And, the wave [1] would likely take shape as a leading diagonal. At this time, I am 50/50 on these two paths.
And, yes, I am still expecting to see a parabolic move up in silver before I will view this long-term bull market in metals as having come to its inevitable conclusion, which will likely accompany a rush of individual investors to the complex just as the bull market is approaching its end.
