The Metals Market Got Stuck

This past weekend, I provided a detailed perspective of how I view the metals market.  And, as of today, there really is nothing more of substance for me to be able to add.

You see, I still cannot count a clear 5 wave structure off the highs for all charts we follow to suggest that the complex has begun its drop to lower levels.  While the GLD has had a double top, it can easily count as a 4^th wave flat, with the second high being a b-wave of that 4^th wave flat.  Moreover, GDX has an overlapping structure off its high.  And, neither of them have broken their respective supports YET.

While my primary count still has us in a 4^th wave bounce in most of the charts we follow, I do not want to become prematurely bearish.  I respect this market enough to know it may want to surprise to the upside, so as long as we hold support, I am going to allow it to try to surprise us.

However, should we see the charts begin to break support, then we can begin to look to lower levels to complete a 5^th wave in this c-wave of wave ii.  Most specifically, I have outlined what the GLD would look like with 5 down off this high, which points it down into the 114 region for wave i of the 5^th wave of the c-wave down.  Moreover, this i-ii structure in GLD would be pointing to a minimum of 109, which is the minimum target we have for that final 5^th.

The only additional comment I have from the weekend is that there is a 1.00 extension down off the high, which coincides with the .618 retracement of this last rally in silver at 14.48.  So, as long as that level holds as support, I have to consider that silver can still break out higher.  In fact, silver is the one chart that could suggest this market still has much more upside potential.  So, I am still giving it the opportunity to prove itself, especially as long as we remain over micro support levels.