This Week WAS Important

I noted over the weekend that this week will likely be an important week for follow through if the 4^th wave was indeed done.  And, to be honest, I cannot say I am yet 100% convinced it is, especially in GLD or GDX.  So, I apologize if I am disappointing you, but the market still has to prove itself.

Starting with silver, it has done exactly what it needs to do – so far.  But, we are going to have to see follow through tomorrow to convince me that wave iii of [v] of 1 is really taking hold.  That means we can no longer see any more meandering, and we need to see a very strong continuation move to convince me that a 5^th wave higher is in progress.  Otherwise, I have added a more protracted wave 2 count, as shown in yellow.

This brings me to both GLD and GDX.  I still have no clear indications that this wave iv is over.  In fact, GLD as a 1.00 extension off its recent lows in the 125 region, and until we are able to convincingly move through that level, I cannot say with confidence that the 4^th wave has completed.

The GDX has a similar level to exceed, which resides in the 23.40 region. 

So, until we see these levels exceeded, I have no confidence yet that their respective 4^th waves are done yet. 

So, while today was clearly a good start, we have been through this rodeo before.  And, until we complete 5 waves up in GLD and GDX, I have to remain cautiously optimistic, but with emphasis on the “caution.”