Trying To Keep It Simple

As we continue to meander in the metals market, the market is still attempting to feel for a bottom.  Amazingly, the price action has basically remained in the same general region for many months now.  Yet, the only chart that could suggest a bottom is in place for this degree 2nd wave is GLD.

As you can see, we can consider a 5-wave structure to have completed off the low struck about two weeks ago.  So, as long as this action over the last several days continues to remain corrective, I will view this as a wave 2 in wave [i], as you can see on the 60-minute GLD chart. But, I want to take this opportunity to reiterate that the daily GLD presents us with a very bullish looking set up, and is still strongly indicating a 3rd wave rally taking hold in 2024. The only question is how long the wave iv takes, for if it drags on long, then it could mean that wave [3] could bleed into 2025. 

While silver had potential to begin a 5-wave structure as I noted over the weekend, it did not take long for it to invalidate that potential, as it never completed that initial 5-wave move off a low.  As we stand right now, we are still questioning which degree 2nd wave silver is going to complete in the near term.  But, until I see a 5-wave rally through the downtrend channel, I cannot assume that the green 2 has bottomed, which still leaves the door open for the purple count and a lower low.  Should we see a break out sooner rathe than later, I will be looking for that micro [1][2] to take shape to point us north for wave [i] back to the 26+ region.  (Take note that my silver chart has moved to the May contract).

As far as GDX is concerned, it is also trying to decide if it is completing wave [2] or 2.  And, as I have said before, when the NEM completes its decline, then it will likely relieve the downside pressure on GDX.  As far as NEM, we finally got that final spike down in a 5th of 5th wave that I had wanted to see, and I think it is only a matter of time now when we see the reversal, which the divergences suggest can be quite strong.  I will need to see a 5-wave structure through 33.80 to suggest a low has finally been struck. But, the downside count finally seems quite full.

So, while we wait for the various charts to complete their respective squiggles in their 2nd waves, the market will likely make it VERY clear when the bottom is struck, as I would expect the reversal to be relatively strong due to the divergences which have been building now for months (if not longer in some charts).