U.S. Dollar Grinds Lower But Is Still Sitting Over Key Support

Last week the DXY broke under the low that was struck on August 26th giving us further confirmation that we are indeed following the primary count lower. This week we saw the DXY grind slightly lower in a fairly sloppy micro pattern but we are still sitting over the low that was struck in July of last year. This low is acting as the next key pivot and once broken will give us further confirmation that we are indeed following the white count, thus making the alternate purple count less likely to trigger.

From an analysis perspective because we have yet to move under that pivot and are still well under even micro resistance there is not too much I can add to the analysis that I laid out last week. yout

Shorter Timeframes
As I noted previously the break below the lower end of the pivot at the 101.43 level gave us further confirmation that we have indeed topped. The break under the 101.93 level this week has given us further confirmation that we are indeed following the primary white count and will continue to push lower.

From here we will now need to under the 101.30 - 102.24 zone which is the previous pivot and now will act as resistance. As long as we hold under that zone then that should set us up for an ultimate move lower towards the low 90s as part of the larger wave (c) down. 

With that being said until we see a break under the 99.58 level I can't fully take the purple count off of the table and if we move back over that 101.93 level the purple count will certainly increase in probability. We would still however need to see a full five up off of the lows and a break back over the 103.55 level to further confirm the purple count.

Bigger Picture
There is still no significant change in the bigger picture count, and as I have noted previously, I am counting the top in October as either the white wave (3) or the green wave (5) of ((A)).

The white count should head down towards the lower trend line to fill out that wave (4) before pushing higher once again to finish off the larger degree wave (5) of ((A)). The exact bottoming level for this potential wave (4) has become a bit more clear as noted above as we have likely topped in the wave (b) of that (4). Ideally, I would be looking for that to come in at the 93.11-90.20 region as this is the target zone for the wave (c). 

The green count is suggestive that we have topped in all of the larger degree wave ((A)) and we are already in the wave ((B)) down. Both the white and the green counts are going to look very similar in the early stages of this move as they both are corrective in nature. The green count of course would give us a much deeper retrace for that larger wave ((B)) before turning higher.