U.S. Dollar Still Holding Support and Pushing Higher

After moving lower over the past several weeks, The U.S. Dollar held support last week and has since moved higher into the end of this week. This is keeping the door open to the purple count still needing yet another higher high but should we begin to break under the low that was struck last week, then it would once again open the door to a top already being in place. For now and as long as that low holds, we still can see another push higher before any significant top is seen. 

Shorter Timeframes
As I noted last week while this pattern still would look better with another higher high in the form of an ending diagonal to finish off the wave c of the larger wave (b), the break of the lower end of the trend channel and upper support which had come in at the 106.97 level, is making this count less probable at this point in time. With that being said however I still cannot fully rule out a final push higher as long as we remain over upper support. The next level of support remains at the 105.42  level. If we can manage to hold that level and then move back over the 108.60 level then it would still leave the door open to seeing the final push higher per the purple count.

Should we see a break under the 105.42 level followed by a break under 103.37 level then we will have initial confirmation that a top in that wave (b) may indeed be in place. Further confirmation would come with a break under the 100.67 level.

We should also see that the structure of the initial move-down takes the form of five waves. So far the move down off of the highs counts better as three rather than five, however, should we continue to follow-through lower we still can develop a full five down off of the highs. If that occurs, then we should be on our way to our targets below near the mid to low 90s. At that point, we will have another larger degree test as laid out in the bigger picture section below.

I would want to see a move over the 108.65 level followed by a break over the 109.92 level to give us initial confirmation that we have indeed put in a bottom and are heading to new highs. 

Bigger Picture
There is still no significant change in the bigger picture count, and as I have noted previously, I am counting the top in October as either the white wave (3) or the green wave (5) of ((A)).

The white count should head down towards the lower trend line to fill out that wave (4) before pushing higher once again to finish off the larger degree wave (5) of ((A)). The exact bottoming level for this potential wave (4) has become a bit more clear as noted above as we have likely topped in the wave (b) of that (4). Ideally, I would be looking for that to come in at the 93.11-90.20 region as this is the target zone for the wave (c). 

The green count is suggestive that we have topped in all of the larger degree wave ((A)) and we are already in the wave ((B)) down. Both the white and the green counts are going to look very similar in the early stages of this move as they both are corrective in nature. The green count of course would give us a much deeper retrace for that larger wave ((B)) before turning higher.