We Have Been Here Before
By
Avi Gilburt
I don't think I can count the number of times anymore where silver has pushed us to the limit only to be turned down again. Will this time be different? I do not know, but GLD is concerning me about a potential reversal. Yet, I fully expect silver WILL provide us with that break out before this bull market comes to a conclusion in the metals sometimes over the coming year or so.
As I write this, silver is again trying to "peek" out over the micro pivot. In fact, it is even approaching the top of the larger degree pivot as well. So, clearly, this is going to be a very important point.
Moreover, take note that the MACD on the 144-minute chart, which told us to expect a rally earlier this week when it turned up, is now back at the resistance region. And, also note that the high struck back in October was 35.79. So, I am just going to play this a bit more cautiously, and say that a strong move through 36 should trigger the wave 3 next move to the 40 region. And, should you want to trade that move through 36 aggressively, you can place your stops just below the 35 region (the bottom of the micro-pivot on the 8-minute chart). And, yes, I would even consider that trade myself.
The issue I have is GLD right now. This chart has really been money as to direction on the metals market. Of course, silver can completely disconnect from GLD, as we know GLD has certainly disconnected from silver during this massive rally we have been enjoying in GLD. But, right now, GLD looks like it is trying to complete wave [v]. In fact, I would just want to see a bit higher towards the 1.618-1.764 extensions on the 8-minute GC chart to consider this potentially complete in wave (v). And, since it would be considered as taking shape as an ending diagonal, we may see a strong reversal within the next trading day or so.
As far as GDX, well, there really is nothing clear to be seen on the micro structure, other than stating that no 5-wave decline structure is seen to warn us about the yellow count - for now.
So, while silver is providing us with another possible break out scenario, I have to weigh that with the potential that GLD is approaching a possible completion of wave (v). This will be VERY interesting action over the next few trading days.
