Weekly Crypto Report: Chop Continues

Micro:

I am watching for a bottom in Bitcoin blue alternate. Otherwise, the market has chopped through the weekend. 

Bitcoin

I am watching for evidence that Bitcoin is going to hold the blue triangle in wave-(iv) of wave-(3). I have queued an order to long Coinbase futures with a limit of $84K, stop at $83,160, and a target of $88K. Below $83,160, Bitcoin should at least test $82,500 in red wave-(iv). 

Ethereum

If Ether breaks over $1630, I will assume it is headed to $1840 as a diagonal for wave-(C) o circle-3. Until then, a drop to test $1490 in wave-(B) is a reasonable expectation. 

ETHBTC

ETHBTC is close to my first signal line. If ETHBTC breaks it and then forms a higher low, I will consider opportunities in Ether more interesting than I do currently. However, breaking that line does not suggest that this pair will see a new ATH.

Spot Conversion

It is not productive for me to produce charts for all the Bitcoin ETFs. The charts lack the history and Bitcoin's price extremities outside regular trading hours needed to create an accurate count. I would need to build calculated charts of each one and manage changes in the conversion rate. That would cut down on coverage of other charts in the service.

Instead, I offer conversion numbers for the Bitcoin ETFs so you can use my Bitcoin chart to manage your positions. These conversions are not perfect, but they can give you a decent sense of risk to reward. To convert Bitcoin supports and targets for your ETF, divide the Bitcoin level by the following numbers:

BITO: 4608

ARKB: 1006

FBTC: 1149

GBTC: 1270

DEFI: 887

EZBC: 1733

HODL: 3551

IBIT: 1766

BRRR: 3552

BTCO: 1006

BTCW: 948

Intermediate View

Bitcoin Intermediate

Bitcoin has nearly reached my long-term target of $120K. However, it takes a break below $52,200 to confirm that a top in this bull market is in. That makes the risk-to-reward for long-term positions slightly upside down here. Zooming in, so long as above $68K holds, another run to between $116K and $120K in circle-5 looks viable. I have added the red extension, which can reach $160K. However, the structure off of the 2023 low does not suggest that an extension is likely.

Ethereum Intermediate

My black count seeks a long-term top in the $6K region. However, Ether has formed five waves off its 2024 top, which can either be C of wave-(4) or blue circle-1. When a local bottom forms, I will watch for signs that it is going to fail at circle-ii. Failure will indicate that Ether has already started its bearish cycle.