What Do We Know?

With the drop in gold below micro support today, I wanted to take a moment to discuss what we know and what we don't know.

First, it is clear that we do not have a 5-wave rally in place off the low, other than in GDX, which is of very micro degree, and unreliable.

Second, since we do not have a clear 5-wave rally off a low, it likely means that a low has not yet been struck.

Third, with the market continuing to meander right now, which can clearly be seen in the GLD chart below, it tells us that we should be somewhat neutral, to even slightly bearish as it means we are likely going to see lower lows before this is done.  The only question is still of path.

So, for now, I have no reason to be expecting any big break outs just yet.  However, there is more weight developing for a potential lower low to be seen first.