What Is "No Man's Land" From An Elliott Wave Perspective?


What is "No man's land" from An Elliott Wave perspective.

Often times you'll see a support zone on a chart marked with a blue box or the analyst will explicitly write something like "$27.80-$28.66 remains larger support for upside continuation." Additionally you may see a comment like "Alternatively, should price continue down a make a sustained break below $27.09 it would open the door to a wider flat in progress off the May high, which could target a retest of the August low"

So, what happens in the space between the lower end of support in this scenario ($27.80) and the signal level for a breakdown ($27.09)?

When we discuss ranges in an Elliott Wave context we're dealing with probabilities. Within a potential impulsive rally, pullbacks are fine so long as they are holding support. Or more precisely, so long as pullbacks do not breach the support zone, we assign a favorable probability to price continuing within its expect pattern. Once price resoundingly breaks that support, we no longer have very favorable odds of continuation. 

But what about the alternative scenario? 

Well in this case, we have broken support for confident upside continuation but price has not strongly indicated intent towards filling in the alternative path, ie, the wider flat to retest the August lows. We have conditions for that case which have not yet been met. And so this is a situation where we don't have a clearly favorable outcome. 

Obviously there are several possibilities, but here's how we'd want to define them

1. Price retakes levels back above the broken support zone from a local bottom within the no-man's land zone, at which point the initial perspective returns to favor.

2. Price resoundingly breaks $27.09 at which point the wider flat becomes preferred.

3. Unconsidered alternatives...

Regarding 3: At any given time there are virtually unlimited paths that price can take and our goal using any type of predictive analysis is to narrow the field of possibilities to a  manageable number to make a reasonable trading plan. If the pattern or our analysis of the action does not permit a reasonable narrowing of the field, we should consider that very valuable information that we ought to not be participating in that asset in that particular zone where the pattern is not permissive of a clear narrowing. And, even with charts that enable us to narrow down the roadmap towards favorability of a few distinct possibilities, the markets always maintain the possibility of straying and so our analysis and trading plans ideally need to define these levels in advance so we can act accordingly

SLV Daily
SLV Daily
Jason Appel is a financial markets veteran who hosts our Beginners Circle section for new members and covers digital currencies, agricultural commodities, and U.S. stocks and indices.


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