Will We Break Out Of The Range?
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It was another rangebound week last week. It was also monthly options expiration, which probably had a hand in the market staying in a narrow range.
This coming week, we might see a break out of the range with opex out of the way. Looking at price action over the last week, the whole move down looks corrective to me, so I think we may attempt a move higher first toward the 4190/4200 area on the Emini S&P 500 (ES) and then maybe one more leg lower toward 4050/4000.
Price action is neutral/bearish short-term, bullish medium-term and neutral long-term. We are partially long in trading accounts.
Most internals are on buys right now. However, there are some clear weakening signs on the very short-term. Regardless, the Odds signal remains on a buy and we need higher before a sell can happen. Or we need lower for an add-on buy signal to happen. In between, we just hold the position we have.
Grey zone resistance at 4166-73 and then 4188-98. Support is at 4146-38 and then 4119-13.
For Monday, daily pivot is at 4150. Resistance R1 is at 4164.5 and R2 at 4175.5. Support S1 is at 4139 and S2 at 4124.
